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This is interesting, in that I've tried to come up with simple simulations like this for strategy games before. But I was a little "eww" when he kicked the numb

This is interesting, in that I've tried to come up with simple simulations like this for strategy games before. But I was a little "eww" when he kicked the number of government workers up to 40% of the workforce. Looks like it goes all the way up to 50%. On simulation #13, where tax is fixed at 10%, the government workers all eventually starve. Surprisingly, the libertarians are correct because at this point the quality of life index abruptly rockets up to twice what it used to be. But there's some sort of robotic overlord AI going on, it still collects the tax. But then in simulation #18, things become a little insane. I call this one the Massachusetts simulation... only 3 workers, but 9 government employees. For a 3:1 ratio. The simulation suggests that some sort of economic meltdown occurs and they all starve, but I suspect that things were a little more violent than that. After, the developer then introduces ration tickets. This is simulation #20, and I'm pretty sure it's Zimbabwe. But it's not the real world Zimbabwe, it somehow works. That is, if you're ok printing trillion dollar bills. Simulation #21 takes a new direction entirely. FDR has been elected, and tries to stamp out competition... but he is too late, evil capitalist farmers have grown too many apples, which perversely leads to starvation. Careful apple quotas are needed. The government has disappeared though, probably because late stage capitalism destroyed it. Only the corporations survive. Surprisingly, no farm subsidies yet. I predict the introduction of a new private sector worker, the ConAgra lobbyist. We'll see if he shows up in a later simulation. That is, assuming another government is elected. In simulation #25, one of the warlords has settled down and become a government again. But this is the last of the simulations. No lobbyists, though the central bank has returned. This might be because Andrew Jackson has died. I did not like the man, he will not be missed. But quite clearly the inflation is through the roof again, and 30% taxes are here to stay. What I've learned from these is that history is a lie. Rhodesia probably never existed, and Zimbabwe happened before the US civil war.

marcosdumay 3y ago
> at this point the quality of life index abruptly rockets up That's because on this simulation the government isn't doing any useful work. The ration tickets work because the people were programed to actually follow the law. It fails every time on the real world because real people aren't. And the simulation #20 works because the simplistic model actually works. At a first approximation, inflation isn't a problem at all. Things only start to fail after you have competition, corruption, very limited resources, etc. Simulation #21 is a great visualization of why people must be able to set prices with enough freedom, and why forced price-fixing bankrupts countries.
- NoMoreNicksLeft 3y ago
  > the people were programed to actually follow the law. It fails every time on the real world because real people aren't. Is anyone working on the problem of programming people? Or are we just hoping for a solution to that to fall into our laps? > and why forced price-fixing bankrupts countries. Ah ha! On this one I paid very close attention. No secret libertarians hiding in woodpiles, and sneaking out at night (or any other time) and stealing from the people. The only rational conclusion is that the simulation was set up to fail as some sort of propaganda. Besides, only a few people died anyway, which for any socialist country is miraculously impressive success. So maybe not propaganda. I'm beginning to think these simulations don't offer any insight into the real world at all.
  - vkou 3y ago
    > Is anyone working on the problem of programming people? We gave The New Soviet Man[1] a try for a couple of decades, but it didn't really stick. As the late-20th, early 21st century has shown, programming that seeks to amplify our vices[2], as opposed to turn us against them turned out to be far more effective. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Soviet_man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Soviet_man [2] Don't think, just buy.
- dclowd9901 3y ago
  The "useful work" was implied. That is, the assumption was the government was perfectly valuable to society with relation to the cost it incurred. It might've been interesting to see the government throw money at the farmers every year or so, though.
  - gus_massa 3y ago
    I think it'd be interesting to a more in-game useful work of the government. For example that the homes of the producer may catch fire randomly. If there is at least a firefighter there is no problem, but once all firefighter die, then there is a 1% chance per day that each producer may burn and die. At the beginning of #13 eve thing is fine, until all firefighter die and the quality of life index abruptly rockets for a while. Then for example the apple producer dies, and after a few days everyone starves and dies. It may be a more complicated criteria, like each firefighter can protect only 2 or 3 producers, so the ratio of producers to government workers must be always not too high.
dclowd9901 3y ago
> After, the developer then introduces ration tickets. This is simulation #20, and I'm pretty sure it's Zimbabwe. But it's not the real world Zimbabwe, it somehow works. That is, if you're ok printing trillion dollar bills. In a cashless society, I suspect the zimbabwe method would actually probably work. The only hangup was "Now I need to crate around boatloads of money". In a cashless society, we can just move the decimal point every so often.
- jameshart 3y ago
  It's definitely important, when analyzing the impact of policies on an economy, not to get hung up on things like 'what the numbers on the banknotes look like' rather than important things like 'how well the population's wants and needs are satisfied'. Certainly it's not inherently a problem to continually have to revalue your currency if the net effect of your economy is it makes a lot of happy people, and it's certainly not impossible to imagine that a functional stable productive economy might coexist with a rapidly inflating - or deflating - currency. But the simulation doesn't do much to validate that concept. It introduced inflation to a group of agents who never think about the future value of their goods or money. In a runaway inflation situation, some producers of apples aren't going to sell you apples today for 1,000 Simoleons, when they know tomorrow those apples will fetch 1,100 Simoleons... and by Friday they'll be worth 10,000. And some holders of Simoleons will think 'These 10,000 Simoleons could buy be ten apples today, but tomorrow they'll only buy me 9, and by Friday they'll only buy me one... so I should buy 10 apples today, then sell them on Friday'. Without capital accumulation, time valued money, or investment, this simulation barely scratches the surface of what effects inflation has on an economy.
  - LeonB 3y ago
    > so I should buy 10 apples today, then sell them on Friday' Simulation might also want to take into account that you can’t stock pile apples indefinitely before they spoil.

marcosdumay 3y ago

> at this point the quality of life index abruptly rockets up That's because on this simulation the government isn't doing any useful work. The ration tickets work because the people were programed to actually follow the law. It fails every time on the real world because real people aren't. And the simulation #20 works because the simplistic model actually works. At a first approximation, inflation isn't a problem at all. Things only start to fail after you have competition, corruption, very limited resources, etc. Simulation #21 is a great visualization of why people must be able to set prices with enough freedom, and why forced price-fixing bankrupts countries.

NoMoreNicksLeft 3y ago
> the people were programed to actually follow the law. It fails every time on the real world because real people aren't. Is anyone working on the problem of programming people? Or are we just hoping for a solution to that to fall into our laps? > and why forced price-fixing bankrupts countries. Ah ha! On this one I paid very close attention. No secret libertarians hiding in woodpiles, and sneaking out at night (or any other time) and stealing from the people. The only rational conclusion is that the simulation was set up to fail as some sort of propaganda. Besides, only a few people died anyway, which for any socialist country is miraculously impressive success. So maybe not propaganda. I'm beginning to think these simulations don't offer any insight into the real world at all.
- vkou 3y ago
  > Is anyone working on the problem of programming people? We gave The New Soviet Man[1] a try for a couple of decades, but it didn't really stick. As the late-20th, early 21st century has shown, programming that seeks to amplify our vices[2], as opposed to turn us against them turned out to be far more effective. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Soviet_man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Soviet_man [2] Don't think, just buy.
dclowd9901 3y ago
The "useful work" was implied. That is, the assumption was the government was perfectly valuable to society with relation to the cost it incurred. It might've been interesting to see the government throw money at the farmers every year or so, though.
- gus_massa 3y ago
  I think it'd be interesting to a more in-game useful work of the government. For example that the homes of the producer may catch fire randomly. If there is at least a firefighter there is no problem, but once all firefighter die, then there is a 1% chance per day that each producer may burn and die. At the beginning of #13 eve thing is fine, until all firefighter die and the quality of life index abruptly rockets for a while. Then for example the apple producer dies, and after a few days everyone starves and dies. It may be a more complicated criteria, like each firefighter can protect only 2 or 3 producers, so the ratio of producers to government workers must be always not too high.

dclowd9901 3y ago

> After, the developer then introduces ration tickets. This is simulation #20, and I'm pretty sure it's Zimbabwe. But it's not the real world Zimbabwe, it somehow works. That is, if you're ok printing trillion dollar bills. In a cashless society, I suspect the zimbabwe method would actually probably work. The only hangup was "Now I need to crate around boatloads of money". In a cashless society, we can just move the decimal point every so often.

jameshart 3y ago
It's definitely important, when analyzing the impact of policies on an economy, not to get hung up on things like 'what the numbers on the banknotes look like' rather than important things like 'how well the population's wants and needs are satisfied'. Certainly it's not inherently a problem to continually have to revalue your currency if the net effect of your economy is it makes a lot of happy people, and it's certainly not impossible to imagine that a functional stable productive economy might coexist with a rapidly inflating - or deflating - currency. But the simulation doesn't do much to validate that concept. It introduced inflation to a group of agents who never think about the future value of their goods or money. In a runaway inflation situation, some producers of apples aren't going to sell you apples today for 1,000 Simoleons, when they know tomorrow those apples will fetch 1,100 Simoleons... and by Friday they'll be worth 10,000. And some holders of Simoleons will think 'These 10,000 Simoleons could buy be ten apples today, but tomorrow they'll only buy me 9, and by Friday they'll only buy me one... so I should buy 10 apples today, then sell them on Friday'. Without capital accumulation, time valued money, or investment, this simulation barely scratches the surface of what effects inflation has on an economy.
- LeonB 3y ago
  > so I should buy 10 apples today, then sell them on Friday' Simulation might also want to take into account that you can’t stock pile apples indefinitely before they spoil.