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I predicted that AI will be the next Web3 — hugely promising but increasingly ignored by HN. There will be waves of innovation in the coming years. Web3 soluti

by EGreg 3y ago

I predicted that AI will be the next Web3 — hugely promising but increasingly ignored by HN. There will be waves of innovation in the coming years. Web3 solutions will mostly enrich people or at worst be zero-sum. While AI solutions will redistribute wealth from the working class to the top 1% and corporations, as well as giving people ways to take advantage of vulnerable people and systems at a scale never seen before.

xnx 3y ago
Web3 never got past the idea stage and was never useful. Generative AI is already useful and actively used by millions of people in their daily work.
- EGreg 3y ago
  Same predictable comment every time, and by the same exact people too. The first part is not even close to being true. And you never mention that the downsides of AI are astronomically larger than Web3. The downside of Web3 is bugs in immutable smart contracts where people lose only what they voluntarily put in. The downside of AI is human extinction and people losing in all kinds of ways regardless of whether they want to or not.
  - phillipcarter 3y ago
    How can you hold the opinion that AI is both not useful and that it's to bring human extinction? Anyways, incoherence of your argument aside, I'll gladly raise my hand as having a use case that LLMs immediately solved for and it's now a core product feature that performs well.
    - EGreg 3y ago
      Many things are not useful and can bring about human extinction. Viruses, volcanoes, or asteroid inpacts for instance. So it’s not incoherent on its face. But I am not even saying that AI is not useful. I am saying that every single time someone pops up on HN to defend AI vs Web3, they only focus on possible upside right now for some people. Even if AI brings 10000x downside at the same time, they would never ever consider mentioning that. But when society adopts a new technology, downsides matter even more than upsides. Loss of income stability and livelihood for many professions, attacks at scale (eg on reputation or truth) by botswarms, etc etc. And that is just what’s possible with current technology. But most of all, for all its upsides, Web3’s harm is limited to those who voluntarily commit some of their money to a smart contract. AI’s harm on the other hand is far greater and is spread primarily out to those who DIDNT VOLUNTARILY CHOOSE IT or even oppose it. That is not very moral as a society. It may enrich the tech bros further, but just like other tech projects, it will probably come at the expense of many others, especially the working class of society. They will have a rude awakening and will riot. But they aren’t rioting about Web3, because losing money you put at risk in a controlled environment is just not in the same stratosphere. Expect the government to use AI to control the population more and more as this civil unrest happens. Look to China to see what it would look like. Or Palantir for precrime etc.
      - j16sdiz 3y ago
        Three post from you in this thread. I downvote two and upvote one. Sometimes, unpopular opinion need more explanation. The other two comments are not helpful, this comment is helpful.
        EGreg 3y ago
        Thanks. Well — prepare to be downvoted by the anti Web3 brigade heh
      - phillipcarter 3y ago
        I guess I'll just say that...I don't believe much of what you're saying is going to happen? I don't think I'll convince you and I don't think you'll convince me either.
atomicnumber3 3y ago
How is Web3 doing these days, I must ask? The only thing I've heard of it recently is that 4chan is still doing good business selling ads for NFT and coin scams.
- EGreg 3y ago
  Growing at a CAGR of 44% https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/03/22/2632374/0/en/Web-3-0-Blockchain-Market-is-Booming-Expected-to-Grow-at-a-CAGR-of-44-13-to-2031-Reveal-InsightAce-Study.html https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/03/22/263... Expected to hit $50 billion by 2030 https://www.emergenresearch.com/amp/industry-report/web-3-market https://www.emergenresearch.com/amp/industry-report/web-3-ma... And for example $1.1 Billion in India https://m.economictimes.com/tech/technology/indian-web3-industry-to-reach-1-1-billion-by-2032-report/amp_articleshow/98632635.cms https://m.economictimes.com/tech/technology/indian-web3-indu...
  - hk__2 3y ago
    > Expected to hit $50 billion by 2030 The definition of "web3" is too vague to have a correct estimation: it will be $50B according to your second link; $44B by 2031 according to your first link; $33B according to [1]; $45 according to [2]; $16B according to [3]. [1]: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-web-3-0-blockchain-market https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-web-3... [2]: https://www.vantagemarketresearch.com/industry-report/web-30-blockchain-market-1694 https://www.vantagemarketresearch.com/industry-report/web-30... [3]: https://www.skyquestt.com/report/web-3-0-blockchain-market https://www.skyquestt.com/report/web-3-0-blockchain-market
    - EGreg 3y ago
      Alright well, take Filecoin for instance. The ecosystem lost only 2% of miners since the top of the bull market, and they have added tens of petabytes of storage in the last year. The amount of miners and storage has increased tremendously and now they represent 1% of all storage worldwide. This according to their own data and Messari: https://youtu.be/ANmrA4KyNvc?si=LaOAw-9MtNiQqLB2 https://youtu.be/ANmrA4KyNvc?si=LaOAw-9MtNiQqLB2
IshKebab 3y ago
Since when was web3 hugely promising Web3 is rightfully being ignored because it is useless. AI is already extremely useful. There's zero chance that it's a fad that will fizzle out. I'm not sure how anyone could come to that conclusion.
- EGreg 3y ago
  Web3 being hugely promising doesn’t mean AI will fizzile out. That’s a strawman. Try to reply to what’s been said. AI has far bigger downsides than Web3, Web3 at worst is zero-sum and people voluntarily choose to engage with it. AI can harm many vulnerable people and systems, that never chose to engage with any of it. That’s what you call useful? Also, this idea that just because you say Web3 has no use cases, makes it true, regardless of evidence, is silly.
  - IshKebab 3y ago
    > Try to reply to what’s been said. Try to read what's been said. When did I imply that the two are linked? > AI has far bigger downsides than Web3, Web3 at worst is zero-sum and people voluntarily choose to engage with it. Sure. Web3 is a nothing. At worst it will change nothing. But it is at worst. It changes nothing. > That’s what you call useful? AI can be abused, but that obviously doesn't mean that it isn't useful. I did not call the abuse of AI useful. Who is arguing against straw men now? > Also, this idea that just because you say Web3 has no use cases, makes it true, regardless of evidence, is silly. Please tell me one practical use of Web3. I did actually google it and it returned this list: https://www.techtarget.com/searchcio/tip/8-top-Web-30-use-cases-and-examples https://www.techtarget.com/searchcio/tip/8-top-Web-30-use-ca... 1. Flexible and secure smart contracts - nobody really wants this; they don't want to lose all their money due to a bug with no recourse. 2. Trusted data privacy - this isn't anything concrete. 3. Highly targeted [advertising] content - erm I thought you said web3 has no downsides? 4. Automated content creation and curation - another hand wave. 5. Unique loyalty programs - ha, come on, really? 6. Increased community building - ... this list is exactly what I expected ... 7. Better omnichannel experiences - ??!? 8. Wider use of augmented reality - what has this even got to do with web3? Please point me to a realistic use case for web3.

by EGreg 3y ago

xnx 3y ago

Web3 never got past the idea stage and was never useful. Generative AI is already useful and actively used by millions of people in their daily work.

EGreg 3y ago
Same predictable comment every time, and by the same exact people too. The first part is not even close to being true. And you never mention that the downsides of AI are astronomically larger than Web3. The downside of Web3 is bugs in immutable smart contracts where people lose only what they voluntarily put in. The downside of AI is human extinction and people losing in all kinds of ways regardless of whether they want to or not.
- phillipcarter 3y ago
  How can you hold the opinion that AI is both not useful and that it's to bring human extinction? Anyways, incoherence of your argument aside, I'll gladly raise my hand as having a use case that LLMs immediately solved for and it's now a core product feature that performs well.
  - EGreg 3y ago
    Many things are not useful and can bring about human extinction. Viruses, volcanoes, or asteroid inpacts for instance. So it’s not incoherent on its face. But I am not even saying that AI is not useful. I am saying that every single time someone pops up on HN to defend AI vs Web3, they only focus on possible upside right now for some people. Even if AI brings 10000x downside at the same time, they would never ever consider mentioning that. But when society adopts a new technology, downsides matter even more than upsides. Loss of income stability and livelihood for many professions, attacks at scale (eg on reputation or truth) by botswarms, etc etc. And that is just what’s possible with current technology. But most of all, for all its upsides, Web3’s harm is limited to those who voluntarily commit some of their money to a smart contract. AI’s harm on the other hand is far greater and is spread primarily out to those who DIDNT VOLUNTARILY CHOOSE IT or even oppose it. That is not very moral as a society. It may enrich the tech bros further, but just like other tech projects, it will probably come at the expense of many others, especially the working class of society. They will have a rude awakening and will riot. But they aren’t rioting about Web3, because losing money you put at risk in a controlled environment is just not in the same stratosphere. Expect the government to use AI to control the population more and more as this civil unrest happens. Look to China to see what it would look like. Or Palantir for precrime etc.
    - j16sdiz 3y ago
      Three post from you in this thread. I downvote two and upvote one. Sometimes, unpopular opinion need more explanation. The other two comments are not helpful, this comment is helpful.
      - EGreg 3y ago
        Thanks. Well — prepare to be downvoted by the anti Web3 brigade heh
    - phillipcarter 3y ago
      I guess I'll just say that...I don't believe much of what you're saying is going to happen? I don't think I'll convince you and I don't think you'll convince me either.

atomicnumber3 3y ago

How is Web3 doing these days, I must ask? The only thing I've heard of it recently is that 4chan is still doing good business selling ads for NFT and coin scams.

EGreg 3y ago
Growing at a CAGR of 44% https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/03/22/2632374/0/en/Web-3-0-Blockchain-Market-is-Booming-Expected-to-Grow-at-a-CAGR-of-44-13-to-2031-Reveal-InsightAce-Study.html https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/03/22/263... Expected to hit $50 billion by 2030 https://www.emergenresearch.com/amp/industry-report/web-3-market https://www.emergenresearch.com/amp/industry-report/web-3-ma... And for example $1.1 Billion in India https://m.economictimes.com/tech/technology/indian-web3-industry-to-reach-1-1-billion-by-2032-report/amp_articleshow/98632635.cms https://m.economictimes.com/tech/technology/indian-web3-indu...
- hk__2 3y ago
  > Expected to hit $50 billion by 2030 The definition of "web3" is too vague to have a correct estimation: it will be $50B according to your second link; $44B by 2031 according to your first link; $33B according to [1]; $45 according to [2]; $16B according to [3]. [1]: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-web-3-0-blockchain-market https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-web-3... [2]: https://www.vantagemarketresearch.com/industry-report/web-30-blockchain-market-1694 https://www.vantagemarketresearch.com/industry-report/web-30... [3]: https://www.skyquestt.com/report/web-3-0-blockchain-market https://www.skyquestt.com/report/web-3-0-blockchain-market
  - EGreg 3y ago
    Alright well, take Filecoin for instance. The ecosystem lost only 2% of miners since the top of the bull market, and they have added tens of petabytes of storage in the last year. The amount of miners and storage has increased tremendously and now they represent 1% of all storage worldwide. This according to their own data and Messari: https://youtu.be/ANmrA4KyNvc?si=LaOAw-9MtNiQqLB2 https://youtu.be/ANmrA4KyNvc?si=LaOAw-9MtNiQqLB2

IshKebab 3y ago

Since when was web3 hugely promising Web3 is rightfully being ignored because it is useless. AI is already extremely useful. There's zero chance that it's a fad that will fizzle out. I'm not sure how anyone could come to that conclusion.

EGreg 3y ago
Web3 being hugely promising doesn’t mean AI will fizzile out. That’s a strawman. Try to reply to what’s been said. AI has far bigger downsides than Web3, Web3 at worst is zero-sum and people voluntarily choose to engage with it. AI can harm many vulnerable people and systems, that never chose to engage with any of it. That’s what you call useful? Also, this idea that just because you say Web3 has no use cases, makes it true, regardless of evidence, is silly.
- IshKebab 3y ago
  > Try to reply to what’s been said. Try to read what's been said. When did I imply that the two are linked? > AI has far bigger downsides than Web3, Web3 at worst is zero-sum and people voluntarily choose to engage with it. Sure. Web3 is a nothing. At worst it will change nothing. But it is at worst. It changes nothing. > That’s what you call useful? AI can be abused, but that obviously doesn't mean that it isn't useful. I did not call the abuse of AI useful. Who is arguing against straw men now? > Also, this idea that just because you say Web3 has no use cases, makes it true, regardless of evidence, is silly. Please tell me one practical use of Web3. I did actually google it and it returned this list: https://www.techtarget.com/searchcio/tip/8-top-Web-30-use-cases-and-examples https://www.techtarget.com/searchcio/tip/8-top-Web-30-use-ca... 1. Flexible and secure smart contracts - nobody really wants this; they don't want to lose all their money due to a bug with no recourse. 2. Trusted data privacy - this isn't anything concrete. 3. Highly targeted [advertising] content - erm I thought you said web3 has no downsides? 4. Automated content creation and curation - another hand wave. 5. Unique loyalty programs - ha, come on, really? 6. Increased community building - ... this list is exactly what I expected ... 7. Better omnichannel experiences - ??!? 8. Wider use of augmented reality - what has this even got to do with web3? Please point me to a realistic use case for web3.