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Ah classic wsj opinion pieces. Where their opinion columnists also said inflation would be transitory and we need more inflation. not less. They don’t realize t

Ah classic wsj opinion pieces. Where their opinion columnists also said inflation would be transitory and we need more inflation. not less. They don’t realize the housing market in Netherlands, Canada, Australia are far worse. How come? They forget much like their “expert Economists” like those scumbag Fed governors and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman - they had loose monetary policy for over a decade. The right time to raise rates were 2012 when asset bubbles were still not so bad, not after 2021 when finally wages started to catch up just for once. But oh no, wages can’t rise, we need to finally raise the rates now. INFLATION they screamed finally. All along ignoring asset inflation. Ever wondered why house prices aren’t part of their “hedonic inflation measure” whatever that is? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-21/powell-aims-to-avoid-japan-deflation-trap-with-dovish-fed-tilt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-21/powell-ai...

fwsgonzo 3y ago
It's also worse in Norway, and not just that but even remote places in Norway. It's going to be everywhere, isn't it? Where exactly is housing cheap now?
- brailsafe 3y ago
  Very very remote places in Canada in terms of absolute price
- dgellow 3y ago
  You can find fairly cheap housing in East Germany (not Berlin of course). But that’s mostly because people don’t want to live there, there is way less economic activity.
- misstuned 3y ago
  Places with few jobs and a low quality-of-life. I live in a place like that now, a car-reliant northern England town where there's no transit service, it's not safe after 7pm and the locals will threaten to fight you if you look funny. Luckily I have a job, it's not as well paid as the same job in other areas but I'm employed and don't pay a huge housing cost. But I'm miserable, it's a horrible place to live (especially as a childless 30-something single person) and I'm looking to move somewhere that's nicer. I'm really struggling to do that, because trading up in areas is difficult, I'm looking at a doubling of housing costs (plus all the other costs of moving) in exchange for ~20-30% more pay in a more affluent area. There are a lot of people like me, trapped in crappy areas with low housing costs and unable to trade up despite being full-time employed. I feel like I just exist here, weekends are my escape but I need to escape forever.
- rekoil 3y ago
  Sweden is pretty crazy too.
- Ekaros 3y ago
  Finland isn't too bad outside the capital region. Some dead or dying places are so cheap that you can not even get loans to fix properties. Which itself is an different issue. Some reasonably growing areas have quite affordable old housing.
- refurb 3y ago
  Plenty of places in the US. I have family in Michigan. I checked home prices and you can still buy a house (not a condo), in a nice town with very good schools for $200,000. With property tax, insurance and mortgage your total home expense would be ~$1,000/month, even at today's interest rates. Plenty of jobs that pay $60,000 there, that's $7,000 per month take home if you're married with two wages earners, leaving $6,000 left over each month, or $60,000 per year.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    You don’t even have to be in the sticks - you can find $200k-ish places within commuting distance of lots of “kind of dying but still big” cities if you will. You will often have weather to deal with. And if you’re young and willing, buying a fixer upper is still a workable strategy - and youtube makes this actually much more workable than even 20 years ago. Sweat equity works wonders. Part of the trick is that lots of jobs are not actually IN the city - they will be to one side, so live on the side that your job is.
    - red-iron-pine 3y ago
      > You don’t even have to be in the sticks - you can find $200k-ish places within commuting distance of lots of “kind of dying but still big” cities if you will. This is why a few cities, like Pittsburg, have seen a resurgence -- cheap housing and the benefits of an actual city.
- polski-g 3y ago
  The world is running out of young people to build houses. The TFR for the entire would will be below replacement rate by 2034. Simultaneously, the world is getting stuffed with old people who do not want new houses constructed to inflate their own house's value.
  - nephanth 3y ago
    Why build new houses in Western countries when they're mostly below replacement rates anyway?
smfugit 3y ago
Easy to fix instead of ranting about what the 1% thinks. People should pick a month and just stop paying their credit bills as a protest. Suddenly overnight there will be a debt jubilee announced.
HlessClaudesman 3y ago
"Oh why won't someone think of the poor house prices!" - wsj As a homeowner I don't mind if house prices fall, that means more people will be able to afford to live in their own house. I still get to live in a house. It's a win win, until I try and sell my house and small amount of that imagined house value is gone, but maybe living in a farer society makes up for that.
- bilekas 3y ago
  Unfortunately though you seem to be in the minority. There is ganging up on the "boomer" generation in Irepand for example because they buy up all the properties they can specifically to rent out for exorbitant prices. This is encouraged. So when there is legislation or regulations that would reduce the price inflation of properties they are the first to complain. They usually have more political influence too by way of being regular voters etc. And so instead of the mentality you share, they don't see owning properties other than a means of "semi passive" income.
  - disgruntledphd2 3y ago
    Do you have a source for your assertions about the Irish property market? Like, as a landlord in Ireland you'll pay 52% tax on your rental income, and while you can claim tax relief on the interest, it doesn't make a lot of financial sense to borrow relatively expensive money for rentals. It made a lot more sense 10 years ago, but the data would seem to suggest that it's not a massive driver of sales right now. Like the Irish property market is insane right now, but I suspect that much more of the rental purchases are driven by small investment companies as that makes much, much more sense from a tax and overall expense purposes.
    - bombcar 3y ago
      The rental market in the USA for sure is greatly distorted by the people who think there is “guaranteed easy money” to be made. They’re the type who say “mortgage $1500, rent $1600, it’s free real estate.” Sadly for them, eventually they learn why professional landlords want to see debt service be 50% or less of revenues. And it’s not because they get to pocket 50%. It’s been covered up because appreciation has been so high as to cover the bad accounting, but a few years of increased rates and near zero appreciation will put the hurt on them - and then watch out!

fwsgonzo 3y ago

It's also worse in Norway, and not just that but even remote places in Norway. It's going to be everywhere, isn't it? Where exactly is housing cheap now?

brailsafe 3y ago
Very very remote places in Canada in terms of absolute price
dgellow 3y ago
You can find fairly cheap housing in East Germany (not Berlin of course). But that’s mostly because people don’t want to live there, there is way less economic activity.
misstuned 3y ago
Places with few jobs and a low quality-of-life. I live in a place like that now, a car-reliant northern England town where there's no transit service, it's not safe after 7pm and the locals will threaten to fight you if you look funny. Luckily I have a job, it's not as well paid as the same job in other areas but I'm employed and don't pay a huge housing cost. But I'm miserable, it's a horrible place to live (especially as a childless 30-something single person) and I'm looking to move somewhere that's nicer. I'm really struggling to do that, because trading up in areas is difficult, I'm looking at a doubling of housing costs (plus all the other costs of moving) in exchange for ~20-30% more pay in a more affluent area. There are a lot of people like me, trapped in crappy areas with low housing costs and unable to trade up despite being full-time employed. I feel like I just exist here, weekends are my escape but I need to escape forever.
rekoil 3y ago
Sweden is pretty crazy too.
Ekaros 3y ago
Finland isn't too bad outside the capital region. Some dead or dying places are so cheap that you can not even get loans to fix properties. Which itself is an different issue. Some reasonably growing areas have quite affordable old housing.
refurb 3y ago
Plenty of places in the US. I have family in Michigan. I checked home prices and you can still buy a house (not a condo), in a nice town with very good schools for $200,000. With property tax, insurance and mortgage your total home expense would be ~$1,000/month, even at today's interest rates. Plenty of jobs that pay $60,000 there, that's $7,000 per month take home if you're married with two wages earners, leaving $6,000 left over each month, or $60,000 per year.
- bombcar 3y ago
  You don’t even have to be in the sticks - you can find $200k-ish places within commuting distance of lots of “kind of dying but still big” cities if you will. You will often have weather to deal with. And if you’re young and willing, buying a fixer upper is still a workable strategy - and youtube makes this actually much more workable than even 20 years ago. Sweat equity works wonders. Part of the trick is that lots of jobs are not actually IN the city - they will be to one side, so live on the side that your job is.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    > You don’t even have to be in the sticks - you can find $200k-ish places within commuting distance of lots of “kind of dying but still big” cities if you will. This is why a few cities, like Pittsburg, have seen a resurgence -- cheap housing and the benefits of an actual city.
polski-g 3y ago
The world is running out of young people to build houses. The TFR for the entire would will be below replacement rate by 2034. Simultaneously, the world is getting stuffed with old people who do not want new houses constructed to inflate their own house's value.
- nephanth 3y ago
  Why build new houses in Western countries when they're mostly below replacement rates anyway?

smfugit 3y ago

Easy to fix instead of ranting about what the 1% thinks. People should pick a month and just stop paying their credit bills as a protest. Suddenly overnight there will be a debt jubilee announced.

HlessClaudesman 3y ago

"Oh why won't someone think of the poor house prices!" - wsj As a homeowner I don't mind if house prices fall, that means more people will be able to afford to live in their own house. I still get to live in a house. It's a win win, until I try and sell my house and small amount of that imagined house value is gone, but maybe living in a farer society makes up for that.

bilekas 3y ago
Unfortunately though you seem to be in the minority. There is ganging up on the "boomer" generation in Irepand for example because they buy up all the properties they can specifically to rent out for exorbitant prices. This is encouraged. So when there is legislation or regulations that would reduce the price inflation of properties they are the first to complain. They usually have more political influence too by way of being regular voters etc. And so instead of the mentality you share, they don't see owning properties other than a means of "semi passive" income.
- disgruntledphd2 3y ago
  Do you have a source for your assertions about the Irish property market? Like, as a landlord in Ireland you'll pay 52% tax on your rental income, and while you can claim tax relief on the interest, it doesn't make a lot of financial sense to borrow relatively expensive money for rentals. It made a lot more sense 10 years ago, but the data would seem to suggest that it's not a massive driver of sales right now. Like the Irish property market is insane right now, but I suspect that much more of the rental purchases are driven by small investment companies as that makes much, much more sense from a tax and overall expense purposes.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    The rental market in the USA for sure is greatly distorted by the people who think there is “guaranteed easy money” to be made. They’re the type who say “mortgage $1500, rent $1600, it’s free real estate.” Sadly for them, eventually they learn why professional landlords want to see debt service be 50% or less of revenues. And it’s not because they get to pocket 50%. It’s been covered up because appreciation has been so high as to cover the bad accounting, but a few years of increased rates and near zero appreciation will put the hurt on them - and then watch out!