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About every 6 months there's one of these "new battery technology" will save the day articles (but the day is not right now) and often given as the excuse for w
by rnk 3y ago
About every 6 months there's one of these "new battery technology" will save the day articles (but the day is not right now) and often given as the excuse for why legacy auto isn't doing a great jobs with battery electric vehicles, see Toyota here.
I think that eventually one of these solid state battery technologies will work out and also will be able to be manufactured reasonably cheaply. It seems very likely that manufacturing existing EV models will be pretty easily convertible to use whatever new battery technology shows up on the market (changing out the skateboard perhaps - not nothing to change but not that hard). Toyota says they have it figured out but their new EVs aren't coming until 2028 model year (5 years!). But this kind of longer timeline also hides the failure of a lot of car makers to invest enough in the battery supply chain - they can't buy enough batteries or they are too expensive, so it's another excuse for what they want anyway, which is not to make that many EVs. They want to keep selling ICE cars while they can.
Look at GM and Ford, the GM ultium battery pack has unspecified problems with mass manufacturing, Ford has also slowed down manufacturing at times this cal year (to improve efficiency or something, specific reasons unclear). I still see the market dynamics being that (1) Tesla continues to take market share from legacy auto where ever they are on the market, and (2) Chinese companies will follow and be even more devastating, because they are making EVs in even larger quantities, decent quality and low prices.
- dangus 3y agoUnlike the past, new battery tech and reductions in manufacturing costs are an arms race with huge incentives for the industry. 10 years ago, $30k bought you a Nissan Leaf with 80 miles of range. Fast forward to today, and the same not-inflation-adjusted amount of money buys you a Chevy Bolt with around 240 miles of range. I expect that within the next 10 years, a vehicle with the average new MSRP will get 400-500 miles of range on a charge. Even if that prediction doesn't pan out, we can almost guarantee that typical charging speeds will increase and charging networks will expand further, blowing past critical mass.
- datavirtue 3y agoYeah, battery keeps getting heavier.
- jackmott42 3y agoThe energy density of the battery cells in the first leaf was the same as the chevy bolt today (to close approximation). The cost just got cheaper so they could add more.
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- hedora 3y agoInterestingly (to me), the main issue with the handling on my EV is the weight (it has 135 mile range at 4 miles / kWh, so it is very energy efficient). The weight means cornering isn’t great. The vehicle only weighs 3133 lbs and ~ 800lbs of that is battery. So, if you want something sportier with decent range, then you have to build something more efficient. I think battery weights have improved a bit since it was built, but not by much. What I said about “sportiness” doesn’t apply to 0-60 mph times, but those are already uncomfortably brutal in high-end EVs. Show me how it performs on a winding road!
- rgmerk 3y agoI get your problem…and yet… I have to wonder if HN existed back in the early 1900s this discussion would be about how driving a car could never match the depth of the bond between horse and rider.
- twobitshifter 3y agoWhich EV do you have now? Look at first generation Tesla roadster numbers for more range with lower weight in a sports car. This was also achieved by I3S but they went with super lightweight body, that was not so aerodynamic. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster_(first_generation) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster_(first_genera... Weight: 2877 lbs Range: 244 mi I agree putting the biggest battery you can in a car isn’t the right approach. It would be nice if people could experience an EV with a range like yours to calm their nerves.
- _hypx 3y agoThe Leaf used a very safe battery chemistry. Modern BEVs do not. There has been no fundamental advancements in battery technology in that timeframe.
- Dylan16807 3y ago> 2028 model year (5 years!) Since it's the September before 2024, that's exactly 4 years.
- rnk 3y agoOh, you are right, my math was off, dang car year calendar math.
- _hypx 3y agoI call them "magic batteries from the future." It is increasingly implausible that any miracle discoveries will happen anytime soon. The difference between you and me is that I see it as a sign that we need to move on from conventional batteries. BEVs are not the answer. We should stop talking about Tesla or whomever disrupting the car industry, because in the end what advantages do they actually have? There appears to be none, and frankly they have more disadvantages than anything else.
- jbm 3y agoI've been driving them for the past 6 months. There is a huge difference, especially for my in-city driving. I can't go back to being a gashole.
- bradknowles 3y agoActually, a lot of the discoveries have already been made. What's happening now is the scaling up and operationalizing of those discoveries. In four or five years, I suspect that what we call "modern" batteries today will look as quaint and ancient to us as the ones that Volta was first playing around with in 1799.
- _hypx 3y agoHeard that said every few months. It has yet to happen.
- bradknowles 3y agoFair enough. They're still in progress, until they're actually shipping.
- twobitshifter 3y agoIn this case it’s not vapor war. Solid state batteries have been demoed and is coming to China in a couple months in a production EV that has filled up with preorders. Anyone remember NIO? https://electrek.co/2023/07/07/nio-solid-state-battery-user-manuals-930-km-range-ev-welion/ https://electrek.co/2023/07/07/nio-solid-state-battery-user-... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1OEbKBNQDtw&pp=ygUcbmlvIGVzNiBzb2xpZCBzdGF0ZSBiYXR0ZXJ5IA%3D%3D https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1OEbKBNQDtw&pp=ygUcbmlvIGVzNiB...