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I know it wasn't exactly your point, but the UK imports 46% of its food.[1] If one was going to be paranoid about import dependence, I think that ranks a tad h

by rgmerk 3y ago

I know it wasn't exactly your point, but the UK imports 46% of its food.[1] If one was going to be paranoid about import dependence, I think that ranks a tad higher up the list. Not every country is going to be self-sufficient in every natural resource, or be efficient producers of every product or service. [1] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/united-kingdom-agricultural-sectors https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/united-kingd...

simondotau 3y ago
I'm sure the UK is reliant on imports in order to enjoy a full breadth of non-essential discretionary choices, and to sustain current levels of food waste. I think it could be misleading to describe that as "import dependent". If the UK lost all access to international trade, people would have to change their diets. Diets would contain more meat, fish, cheese, root vegetables and wheat. They'd contain less rice, processed food, sugar, and a narrower selection of fruits. I've no doubt that a sudden cataclysmic change to international trade would spike food prices and increase poverty-derived food insecurity. But I doubt there would be physical calorie shortages.
- eru 3y ago
  > I've no doubt that a sudden cataclysmic change to international trade would spike food prices and increase poverty-derived food insecurity. But I doubt there would be physical calorie shortages. If there was a sudden change, there might be calorie shortages. However, I agree that if importing become more expensive over the longer run, or even if there was a quick change, but one that could be predicted years in advance, there would be no calorie shortages. However, the same is true for lithium: the UK could mine its own lithium, if importing become infeasible. I am not sure though, if it would make commercial sense even then: you can make batteries (and other gadgets) without lithium, and for many applications you can make do without batteries at all. Eg instead of solely driving electric cars with home-grown lithium batteries, on the margin I would expect more people to take the train.
- Symbiote 3y ago
  There was already a preview of this a year or two ago, when there was a shortage of salad vegetables in the UK (Brexit + Covid + weather, I think). The government minister recommended eating turnips instead, as they were in surplus.
nonethewiser 3y ago
> If one was going to be paranoid Whether or not its paranoia is the issue so you can’t presuppose it. Also, there is no reason you cant be concerned about multiple dependencies at the same time. In this case the topic is lithium.

by rgmerk 3y ago

simondotau 3y ago

I'm sure the UK is reliant on imports in order to enjoy a full breadth of non-essential discretionary choices, and to sustain current levels of food waste. I think it could be misleading to describe that as "import dependent". If the UK lost all access to international trade, people would have to change their diets. Diets would contain more meat, fish, cheese, root vegetables and wheat. They'd contain less rice, processed food, sugar, and a narrower selection of fruits. I've no doubt that a sudden cataclysmic change to international trade would spike food prices and increase poverty-derived food insecurity. But I doubt there would be physical calorie shortages.

eru 3y ago
> I've no doubt that a sudden cataclysmic change to international trade would spike food prices and increase poverty-derived food insecurity. But I doubt there would be physical calorie shortages. If there was a sudden change, there might be calorie shortages. However, I agree that if importing become more expensive over the longer run, or even if there was a quick change, but one that could be predicted years in advance, there would be no calorie shortages. However, the same is true for lithium: the UK could mine its own lithium, if importing become infeasible. I am not sure though, if it would make commercial sense even then: you can make batteries (and other gadgets) without lithium, and for many applications you can make do without batteries at all. Eg instead of solely driving electric cars with home-grown lithium batteries, on the margin I would expect more people to take the train.
Symbiote 3y ago
There was already a preview of this a year or two ago, when there was a shortage of salad vegetables in the UK (Brexit + Covid + weather, I think). The government minister recommended eating turnips instead, as they were in surplus.

nonethewiser 3y ago

> If one was going to be paranoid Whether or not its paranoia is the issue so you can’t presuppose it. Also, there is no reason you cant be concerned about multiple dependencies at the same time. In this case the topic is lithium.