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I wonder if "Contagion" was propaganda. It really made me believe that if a SARS pandemic ever happened, a bunch of incredibly competent scientists and governme

I wonder if "Contagion" was propaganda. It really made me believe that if a SARS pandemic ever happened, a bunch of incredibly competent scientists and government agents would swoop in and save us all. The "Olympus Has Fallen" series also made me believe that if a mob ever stepped foot on the White House lawn, a bunch of auto turrets would pop up and gun them all down. The last few years has shown that the world is run by a bunch of jokers, no different than me. That's comforting in some ways, horrifying in others, and sadly has ruined the illusion of some of my favorite movies.

ceejayoz 3y ago
Contagion got things pretty much spot-on. Conspiracy theorists with fake cures, political officials who fight mitigation measures, contact tracing, panic buying, at-home substitutes for school events, fairly rapid vaccine development and the initial scarcity of it. The major difference was the mortality rate; the movie's virus killed something like 25%. One of the odd difficulties with COVID is it's deadly enough (especially pre-vaccine) to make a serious pile of excess deaths on a population-level scale, but low enough people can just get used to it.
- elteto 3y ago
  Contagion also compressed time quite a bit because it’s a movie meant to entertain. It couldn’t show the long months of research, development and testing that actual science requires. Still a great movie.
  - vxNsr 3y ago
    Fun fact: I worked in the office building where they filmed the CDC scenes (spoiler: it’s not and never was the CDCs real office), was kinda cool to walk the halls and enter the clean room they used.
  - jibe 3y ago
    It wasn’t too bad, the movie spanned 4 months from outbreak to vaccine. Pfizer’s Covid trial started 5 months after outbreak. If Covid was killing 20% like the virus in the movie, we could have matched or beaten the movie timeline.
    - elteto 3y ago
      Good point. Although if we do have a pandemic with 20% mortality rates I feel like we would experience societal collapse in a much larger scale than in the movie. Much larger as in: we can’t finish developing a vaccine because world order is severely degraded.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - anonym29 3y ago
        Thank goodness COVID's mortality rates for nonsmokers aged 18-50 without diabetes were 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than that.
        elteto 3y ago
        And mortality rates in children was even lower. I think that really helped cool things down. And even then, we all know how crazy things got.
    - bakuninsbart 3y ago
      Right, I think it is fascinating that basically the whole world decided to wait for the trials to finish. If death rate had been higher I'm sure some countries would have just started vaccinating and hoping for the best.
- thesaintlives 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    I can't tell if you're serious or sarcastic, but a great illustration of the point. It's very possible for a disease to kill a million people in the US and for some folks to not have it kill any of their family and friends personally. Someone who lived in NYC in March 2020 would likely have had a very different experience than someone in rural Minnesota, for example.
    - free_glamorgan 3y ago
      I have a working hypothesis that a very large number of people don't personally know anyone who has died of Covid, except maybe for an elderly relative and "they were getting on a bit anyway". It's true of me and anyone else I've had this conversation with.
      - aardshark 3y ago
        Do you live in a first world Western country and is your social circle comprised of people who do the same? In my experience when you go outside of that circle you start finding people who have personally experienced loss from COVID very quickly.
        free_glamorgan 3y ago
        Statistically, a social circle comprised of first world, Western, overweight and inactive and generally older folk should have the most susceptibility to death from Covid.
        thesaintlives 3y ago
        I found completely the opposite. I spoke with all my Indian colleagues. Covid? What's that they said. No problem here Sir..
- nsxwolf 3y ago
  The inaccurate part of the movie is that all that stuff worked. In real life, what "ended" the pandemic was a combination of mother nature and the human willingness to accept a lost cause and move on.
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    And an effective vaccine, as far as death and severe illness is concerned. https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/new-study-shows-fewer-people-die-from-covid-19-in-better-vaccinated-communities/ https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/new-study-shows-fewer-p... > The findings, based on data across 2,558 counties in 48 US states, show that counties with high vaccine coverage had a more than 80% reduction in death rates compared with largely unvaccinated counties.
    - nsxwolf 3y ago
      Definitely a big win, but 80% reduction means it prevented fewer than half of the vulnerable from death, when the hope had been much closer to preventing virtually all deaths. Those are not pandemic ending numbers, certainly not to those who espouse a zero COVID strategy.
      - ajross 3y ago
        > 80% reduction means it prevented fewer than half of the vulnerable from death What are you trying to say here? That math doesn't make sense to me at all. Pretty clearly the reduction in deaths comes primarily from... those who would have been vulnerable to dying.
    - claytongulick 3y ago
      We're going to need to determine the cause of the unexplained spike in recent all-cause mortality before we can have any sort of meaningful conversation about the risk/benefit analysis of the covid vaccination program.
      - barbacoa 3y ago
- xescure 3y ago
  Not to mention the long term effects, such as increased risk of diabetes, heart problems and neurodegenerative conditions. Plus a bunch of other symptoms which get labeled as long covid. These are not enough to make people afraid of catching the virus. The effects are not immediate and humans are bad at long-term risk assessment. See climate change or smoking as examples.
- goodbyesf 3y ago
  [flagged]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
runjake 3y ago
> the world is run by a bunch of jokers, no different than me Your (our) lack of audacity is the only difference.
- nashashmi 3y ago
  This is actually the difference between a hacker trying to save the world and someone on his rear end complaining about how the world is. When I learned this at the age of 20 that I am an adult now and no one can say any longer I am too young, my persona shifted from "tell me what to do" to a "i already know what to do but go ahead and tell me why i shouldn't"
Retric 3y ago
Cost and risk are a major factor in how things are dealt with. Ebola mobilizes different responses than most diseases and so kills fewer people. Armed gunmen regularly attack the pentagon so it’s well defend against lone gunmen. The vast majority of government buildings aren’t well protected because they don’t need to be.
thw99 3y ago
[flagged]
johnohara 3y ago
"They Live (1988)" has seemed oddly relevant over the years.
- JPws_Prntr_Fngr 3y ago
  WORK 8 HOURS SLEEP 8 HOURS PLAY 8 HOURS
- euroderf 3y ago
  Perennially relevant.
Fervicus 3y ago
> the world is run by a bunch of jokers That's what they'd like you to believe. They know exactly what they are doing.
- carapace 3y ago
  One of the classic and unmistakable hallmarks of a fool is that they think they know what they are doing.
  - mushbino 3y ago
    And in this case, they always seem to get more wealthy and come out ahead no matter what.
    - carapace 3y ago
      Ahead of what? They die too just like everybody else.
      - JPws_Prntr_Fngr 3y ago
        Ahead on virtually any measure of material or social success, and they further consolidate their advantages by functioning multi-generationally, which means that no, they don't die quite like everybody else. See for example: the Bush dynasty vs the typical "successful" American family. Do you know anyone benefiting from their great-grandfather's Nazi money, plus their grandfather's CIA/oil cartel black ops + presidency + Carlyle group influence trading, plus their father's presidency (and yet-to-be-proven criminal fuckery)? I don't.
        doubleg72 3y ago
        Thanks for reminding me to grab the tinfoil hat!
        carapace 3y ago
marcosdumay 3y ago
> a bunch of incredibly competent scientists ... would swoop in and save us all And they did.
FreshStart 3y ago
The realization that incompetence rules in surplus times and nobody rules in undersupply times is most horrifying. We (society) really fall apart rather quickly when push comes to shove. Which is why to construct society up keeping constructs like social networks + Panopticon or a knowledge storage like youtube are quite the achievement.

ceejayoz 3y ago

Contagion got things pretty much spot-on. Conspiracy theorists with fake cures, political officials who fight mitigation measures, contact tracing, panic buying, at-home substitutes for school events, fairly rapid vaccine development and the initial scarcity of it. The major difference was the mortality rate; the movie's virus killed something like 25%. One of the odd difficulties with COVID is it's deadly enough (especially pre-vaccine) to make a serious pile of excess deaths on a population-level scale, but low enough people can just get used to it.

elteto 3y ago
Contagion also compressed time quite a bit because it’s a movie meant to entertain. It couldn’t show the long months of research, development and testing that actual science requires. Still a great movie.
- vxNsr 3y ago
  Fun fact: I worked in the office building where they filmed the CDC scenes (spoiler: it’s not and never was the CDCs real office), was kinda cool to walk the halls and enter the clean room they used.
- jibe 3y ago
  It wasn’t too bad, the movie spanned 4 months from outbreak to vaccine. Pfizer’s Covid trial started 5 months after outbreak. If Covid was killing 20% like the virus in the movie, we could have matched or beaten the movie timeline.
  - elteto 3y ago
    Good point. Although if we do have a pandemic with 20% mortality rates I feel like we would experience societal collapse in a much larger scale than in the movie. Much larger as in: we can’t finish developing a vaccine because world order is severely degraded.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - anonym29 3y ago
      Thank goodness COVID's mortality rates for nonsmokers aged 18-50 without diabetes were 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than that.
      - elteto 3y ago
        And mortality rates in children was even lower. I think that really helped cool things down. And even then, we all know how crazy things got.
  - bakuninsbart 3y ago
    Right, I think it is fascinating that basically the whole world decided to wait for the trials to finish. If death rate had been higher I'm sure some countries would have just started vaccinating and hoping for the best.
thesaintlives 3y ago
[flagged]
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  I can't tell if you're serious or sarcastic, but a great illustration of the point. It's very possible for a disease to kill a million people in the US and for some folks to not have it kill any of their family and friends personally. Someone who lived in NYC in March 2020 would likely have had a very different experience than someone in rural Minnesota, for example.
  - free_glamorgan 3y ago
    I have a working hypothesis that a very large number of people don't personally know anyone who has died of Covid, except maybe for an elderly relative and "they were getting on a bit anyway". It's true of me and anyone else I've had this conversation with.
    - aardshark 3y ago
      Do you live in a first world Western country and is your social circle comprised of people who do the same? In my experience when you go outside of that circle you start finding people who have personally experienced loss from COVID very quickly.
      - free_glamorgan 3y ago
        Statistically, a social circle comprised of first world, Western, overweight and inactive and generally older folk should have the most susceptibility to death from Covid.
      - thesaintlives 3y ago
        I found completely the opposite. I spoke with all my Indian colleagues. Covid? What's that they said. No problem here Sir..
nsxwolf 3y ago
The inaccurate part of the movie is that all that stuff worked. In real life, what "ended" the pandemic was a combination of mother nature and the human willingness to accept a lost cause and move on.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  And an effective vaccine, as far as death and severe illness is concerned. https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/new-study-shows-fewer-people-die-from-covid-19-in-better-vaccinated-communities/ https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/new-study-shows-fewer-p... > The findings, based on data across 2,558 counties in 48 US states, show that counties with high vaccine coverage had a more than 80% reduction in death rates compared with largely unvaccinated counties.
  - nsxwolf 3y ago
    Definitely a big win, but 80% reduction means it prevented fewer than half of the vulnerable from death, when the hope had been much closer to preventing virtually all deaths. Those are not pandemic ending numbers, certainly not to those who espouse a zero COVID strategy.
    - ajross 3y ago
      > 80% reduction means it prevented fewer than half of the vulnerable from death What are you trying to say here? That math doesn't make sense to me at all. Pretty clearly the reduction in deaths comes primarily from... those who would have been vulnerable to dying.
  - claytongulick 3y ago
    We're going to need to determine the cause of the unexplained spike in recent all-cause mortality before we can have any sort of meaningful conversation about the risk/benefit analysis of the covid vaccination program.
    - barbacoa 3y ago
xescure 3y ago
Not to mention the long term effects, such as increased risk of diabetes, heart problems and neurodegenerative conditions. Plus a bunch of other symptoms which get labeled as long covid. These are not enough to make people afraid of catching the virus. The effects are not immediate and humans are bad at long-term risk assessment. See climate change or smoking as examples.
goodbyesf 3y ago
[flagged]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

runjake 3y ago

> the world is run by a bunch of jokers, no different than me Your (our) lack of audacity is the only difference.

nashashmi 3y ago
This is actually the difference between a hacker trying to save the world and someone on his rear end complaining about how the world is. When I learned this at the age of 20 that I am an adult now and no one can say any longer I am too young, my persona shifted from "tell me what to do" to a "i already know what to do but go ahead and tell me why i shouldn't"

Retric 3y ago

Cost and risk are a major factor in how things are dealt with. Ebola mobilizes different responses than most diseases and so kills fewer people. Armed gunmen regularly attack the pentagon so it’s well defend against lone gunmen. The vast majority of government buildings aren’t well protected because they don’t need to be.

thw99 3y ago

[flagged]

johnohara 3y ago

"They Live (1988)" has seemed oddly relevant over the years.

JPws_Prntr_Fngr 3y ago
WORK 8 HOURS SLEEP 8 HOURS PLAY 8 HOURS
euroderf 3y ago
Perennially relevant.

Fervicus 3y ago

> the world is run by a bunch of jokers That's what they'd like you to believe. They know exactly what they are doing.

carapace 3y ago
One of the classic and unmistakable hallmarks of a fool is that they think they know what they are doing.
- mushbino 3y ago
  And in this case, they always seem to get more wealthy and come out ahead no matter what.
  - carapace 3y ago
    Ahead of what? They die too just like everybody else.
    - JPws_Prntr_Fngr 3y ago
      Ahead on virtually any measure of material or social success, and they further consolidate their advantages by functioning multi-generationally, which means that no, they don't die quite like everybody else. See for example: the Bush dynasty vs the typical "successful" American family. Do you know anyone benefiting from their great-grandfather's Nazi money, plus their grandfather's CIA/oil cartel black ops + presidency + Carlyle group influence trading, plus their father's presidency (and yet-to-be-proven criminal fuckery)? I don't.
      - doubleg72 3y ago
        Thanks for reminding me to grab the tinfoil hat!
        carapace 3y ago

marcosdumay 3y ago

> a bunch of incredibly competent scientists ... would swoop in and save us all And they did.

FreshStart 3y ago

The realization that incompetence rules in surplus times and nobody rules in undersupply times is most horrifying. We (society) really fall apart rather quickly when push comes to shove. Which is why to construct society up keeping constructs like social networks + Panopticon or a knowledge storage like youtube are quite the achievement.