5 ms·

The romantic optimist in me will keep some hope out that that sort of thing was the Great Filter which felled so many of our unseen galactic neighbours.

• api 3y ago
  The Great Filter is really just an arbitrary speculation since we don't know most of the parameters in the Drake equation with any certainty. It's also a fallacy to assume that a great filter, if it exists, must be a single discrete climactic test or have a single explanation. It could be that there exists on average a continuous low probability of an event or evolutionary path that rules out advanced intelligence in a given biosphere. Let's say that the yearly probability of such a terminal event or path is about 0.00000002%. Over 500 million years this would amount to a 99% chance of failing the great filter. If this is true it would mean that we're almost there, very likely to succeed, but also very likely pretty alone at least in our galaxy since there won't be that many advanced intelligences around. The difference though is that unlike the discrete great filter hypothesis there is no single apocalyptic event to fear. It's a small probability spread over aeons. This is just to show that we don't know the answer to the Fermi paradox at all. There's no testable or scientific answer at least. Only way to really know is to go out there and look around.
  • borissk 3y ago
    There may be 99% chance of failing the great filter in the 500M years before an industrial evolution and 99.99999999% chance of failing it in the 10K years past. Humankind invented nuclear weapons and had a lot of luck that they are hard to make and so far only 2 were used in anger. There's a good chance that with the progress of AI, nanotech, CRISPR very powerful weapons will become available to groups like ISIS - greatly decreasing humankind's chances of survival.
    • api 3y ago
      We just don’t know. At this point for all we know the birth of life is just unbelievably improbable and rare and that’s it.