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Jassy said the quiet part out loud and admitted what I've always suspected, that most CEOs don't have original thoughts, instead governing by groupthink: > Oth

by lapcat 3y ago

Jassy said the quiet part out loud and admitted what I've always suspected, that most CEOs don't have original thoughts, instead governing by groupthink: > Other company CEOs helped Jassy make up his mind too. Jassy spoke to "60 to 80 CEOs of other companies over the last 18 months," and "virtually all of them" preferred in-office work, he said. I bet that none of those individual CEOs could empirically prove that remote work is bad, just as Jassy himself could not, but apparently there's strength in numbers. https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-andy-jassy-no-data-return-to-office-rto-aws-2023-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-andy-jassy-no-data-re... The CEO herd mentality is why entire industries make the same mistakes simultaneously.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
mrfox321 3y ago
The same group think happened during COVID. Tech closed up shop on a Wednesday. Finance shut down the following Monday.
trentnix 3y ago
That they uniformly laid off similar percentages of employees last fall (despite the fact the stock market has rebounded) should have confirmed your suspicions nearly a year ago. They seem to largely be lemmings, calling plays out of the same playbook.
manuelabeledo 3y ago
> The CEO herd mentality is why entire industries make the same mistakes simultaneously. Also, most CEOs would jump on the hype train for anything that investors may like.
JackFr 3y ago
And yet they are CEOs and you and I are posting comments Hacker News.
- lapcat 3y ago
  I'm a CEO. My company is a sole proprietorship, but still. It's kind of a silly criticism, because the majority of people don't aspire to become corporate CEOs. I hate MBAs and would hate myself for becoming one. In fact I've never pursued wealth as my life goal. For many years, I was in academia; how's that for the opposite of wealth accumulation?
- rchaud 3y ago
  Had this CEO shared the data they claimed to have reviewed, we'd be talking about that and not empty appeals to authority. Should Napoleon have invaded Russia? I say no, but then again nobody's making a movie about me starring Joaquin Phoenix.
manishsharan 3y ago
The fear of an collapse in commercial real estate is driving these decisions. What 4 hours of your life each day compared to the well being of the real estate moguls ? I am staying at my job (100% wfh )and foregoing other opportunities in the job market as an extra hour of playtime with my kid is worth that much to me. The minute my employer changes their mind, I will be out hunting similar WFH job
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  That $1T giants care more about a $10b real estate portfolio than 2% productivity of their workforce is the biggest QAnon level conspiracy that HN supports which makes no sense.
  - manishsharan 3y ago
    Sorry .. I am unable to understand what you meant. Could you elaborate ?
    - reducesuffering 3y ago
      Many people on HN claim that big co's like Amazon, Apple, and Google only want RTO (return to office) because they stand to lose so much money in real estate. However, these are companies worth >$1,000 billion. When you dig into the value of their corporate real estate holdings, it's almost always only $5-20 billion, a paltry percentage of their overall worth. Their financial incentives mean they do not care about losing even 50% of a $5-$20B real estate portfolio, if it in anyway impacts the ability of their workforce to be productive in making the $50 billion/year profits required to maintain >$1,000 billion equity value. Losing 50% on $10B real estate means a 0.5% loss. Losing just 1% productivity on your workforce is a 1% loss, double. These companies care about their software productivity and profits, period. That's what drives their decisions. Their worth isn't comprised of real estate.
      - MockObject 3y ago
        > These companies care about their software productivity and profits, period. That's what drives their decisions. Then there ought to be enough data on the productivity of RTO to shut up all the naysayers on HN. It's not there. It doesn't exist. Jassy admitted his decision was based on groupthink.
huevosabio 3y ago
I think you are spot on. In the last 3 years we had insane hiring sprees, layoffs, full remote proclamations, RTO proclamations, all perfectly synced between companies. This synchronized zigzag makes me think that 1) C-suite pay is indeed too high, and 2) we may have concentrated risk. On the latter, when SVB busted, it was clear that a small cohort of VCs in chat rooms dominated the decisions of tons of startups, thus they all had very similar behavior. Perhaps the stock market is the same at a larger scale: a relatively small number of large investors can mostly steer what companies do. If so, then there should be opportunity for companies that don't dance to the same tune.
- mandeepj 3y ago
  > This synchronized zigzag makes me think that If the waging fixing scandal was not enough of the giveaway about their collusion. Post Covid, they laid-off people purposefully to get back control in their hands https://observer.com/2014/04/wage-fixing-scandal-google-apple-intel-and-adobe-pay-324-million-in-damages/ https://observer.com/2014/04/wage-fixing-scandal-google-appl...
innagadadavida 3y ago
Not a fan of executives or management but there literally are two groups - RTO and non-RTO. Employees largely prefer one option and management the other. So effectively you have two group-thinks going on. Are you saying management should change their stance or are there other non-group think options here?
- lapcat 3y ago
  The personal benefits of WFH are obvious to the individual employee: no commute, the ability to live wherever you want instead of obscenely expensive areas like Silicon Valley, spending more time with your family, flexible work hours. How exactly is it "groupthink" to prefer this? The question is, why exactly do executives prefer RTO? They seem to be rather short on evidence of the benefits.
- horns4lyfe 3y ago
  Yes management should change their stance. Workers make the thing go, managers are just an offshoot.

by lapcat 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

mrfox321 3y ago

The same group think happened during COVID. Tech closed up shop on a Wednesday. Finance shut down the following Monday.

trentnix 3y ago

That they uniformly laid off similar percentages of employees last fall (despite the fact the stock market has rebounded) should have confirmed your suspicions nearly a year ago. They seem to largely be lemmings, calling plays out of the same playbook.

manuelabeledo 3y ago

> The CEO herd mentality is why entire industries make the same mistakes simultaneously. Also, most CEOs would jump on the hype train for anything that investors may like.

JackFr 3y ago

And yet they are CEOs and you and I are posting comments Hacker News.

lapcat 3y ago
I'm a CEO. My company is a sole proprietorship, but still. It's kind of a silly criticism, because the majority of people don't aspire to become corporate CEOs. I hate MBAs and would hate myself for becoming one. In fact I've never pursued wealth as my life goal. For many years, I was in academia; how's that for the opposite of wealth accumulation?
rchaud 3y ago
Had this CEO shared the data they claimed to have reviewed, we'd be talking about that and not empty appeals to authority. Should Napoleon have invaded Russia? I say no, but then again nobody's making a movie about me starring Joaquin Phoenix.

manishsharan 3y ago

The fear of an collapse in commercial real estate is driving these decisions. What 4 hours of your life each day compared to the well being of the real estate moguls ? I am staying at my job (100% wfh )and foregoing other opportunities in the job market as an extra hour of playtime with my kid is worth that much to me. The minute my employer changes their mind, I will be out hunting similar WFH job

reducesuffering 3y ago
That $1T giants care more about a $10b real estate portfolio than 2% productivity of their workforce is the biggest QAnon level conspiracy that HN supports which makes no sense.
- manishsharan 3y ago
  Sorry .. I am unable to understand what you meant. Could you elaborate ?
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    Many people on HN claim that big co's like Amazon, Apple, and Google only want RTO (return to office) because they stand to lose so much money in real estate. However, these are companies worth >$1,000 billion. When you dig into the value of their corporate real estate holdings, it's almost always only $5-20 billion, a paltry percentage of their overall worth. Their financial incentives mean they do not care about losing even 50% of a $5-$20B real estate portfolio, if it in anyway impacts the ability of their workforce to be productive in making the $50 billion/year profits required to maintain >$1,000 billion equity value. Losing 50% on $10B real estate means a 0.5% loss. Losing just 1% productivity on your workforce is a 1% loss, double. These companies care about their software productivity and profits, period. That's what drives their decisions. Their worth isn't comprised of real estate.
    - MockObject 3y ago
      > These companies care about their software productivity and profits, period. That's what drives their decisions. Then there ought to be enough data on the productivity of RTO to shut up all the naysayers on HN. It's not there. It doesn't exist. Jassy admitted his decision was based on groupthink.

huevosabio 3y ago

I think you are spot on. In the last 3 years we had insane hiring sprees, layoffs, full remote proclamations, RTO proclamations, all perfectly synced between companies. This synchronized zigzag makes me think that 1) C-suite pay is indeed too high, and 2) we may have concentrated risk. On the latter, when SVB busted, it was clear that a small cohort of VCs in chat rooms dominated the decisions of tons of startups, thus they all had very similar behavior. Perhaps the stock market is the same at a larger scale: a relatively small number of large investors can mostly steer what companies do. If so, then there should be opportunity for companies that don't dance to the same tune.

mandeepj 3y ago
> This synchronized zigzag makes me think that If the waging fixing scandal was not enough of the giveaway about their collusion. Post Covid, they laid-off people purposefully to get back control in their hands https://observer.com/2014/04/wage-fixing-scandal-google-apple-intel-and-adobe-pay-324-million-in-damages/ https://observer.com/2014/04/wage-fixing-scandal-google-appl...

innagadadavida 3y ago

Not a fan of executives or management but there literally are two groups - RTO and non-RTO. Employees largely prefer one option and management the other. So effectively you have two group-thinks going on. Are you saying management should change their stance or are there other non-group think options here?

lapcat 3y ago
The personal benefits of WFH are obvious to the individual employee: no commute, the ability to live wherever you want instead of obscenely expensive areas like Silicon Valley, spending more time with your family, flexible work hours. How exactly is it "groupthink" to prefer this? The question is, why exactly do executives prefer RTO? They seem to be rather short on evidence of the benefits.
horns4lyfe 3y ago
Yes management should change their stance. Workers make the thing go, managers are just an offshoot.