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Yep, there's a giant pile of training (and inference) that has yet to be done because we've barely touched real-world data (audio, visual and tactile). GPT-4 al

Yep, there's a giant pile of training (and inference) that has yet to be done because we've barely touched real-world data (audio, visual and tactile). GPT-4 already demo'd a multimodal version, and I don't see a reason why GPT-N won't be able to seamlessly work on video and tactile input and output actuator commands. I also don't see a reason why humanoid bodies would cost more than a car. Maybe people don't realize how low the bar for mass-adoption is? We're kinda mesmerized by Boston Dynamics' Parkourbot, but the real-world is made for people of many different abilities, you don't need to do summersaults, or run, or lift a lot to be able to do useful work. A $30k robot with a lifespan of 8 years would cost $10/day. $10 is very little money for in-your-house work, being able to do basic cleanup will be worth it for a vast number of households.

thunky 3y ago
> Boston Dynamics' Parkourbot > you don't need to do summersaults, or run, or lift a lot to be able to do useful work I agree that it's a gimmick, but every time I see it I'm reminded of how far we are from having an in-home robot that can do useful work like wash the bed sheets and clean the toilet.
adventured 3y ago
Raking leaves, very basic yard upkeep and mowing, is worth around $10 / day to most people (if it's close to basic human performance at those tasks). One can debate the year it will arrive (less than 30 years, more than 10 years), the utility value of a robot that can do that well is extremely high though. And bring on the snow shoveling bots. Nearly every 50+ year old in cold climates will want one. Will we have to outfit them in specialized winter gear?
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  I'm pretty convinced we can do snow removal robots now for a few thousand dollars plus a few hundred a year of maintenance (snow and electronics don't mix well), but you are competing with a 25-year-old with a truck and a snowplow blade who comes by and clears it for $100/month.
  - qwytw 3y ago
    You can already get one for around $7000 which seems a bit steep: https://www.yarbo.com/shop https://www.yarbo.com/shop Lawnmower bots are relatively cheap, so the cost for snow ones will probably go down as well over time (then again the market for them is probably much smaller and yeah, snow removal is cheaper and easier for a human to do compared to lawn mowing)
    - pclmulqdq 3y ago
      With all due respect to that company, it also doesn't look like it can stand up to removing very thick snow or operating on a large surface area. My house (and a lot of others who would pay for this) regularly gets more than 12 inches of snow in one event every winter, so the robot would have to operate in the middle of a snowstorm to keep the driveway and sidewalk clear on the day that matters. Snow removal is also lot more physically strenuous than most other yard tasks, meaning much bigger motors and batteries, almost approaching car-sized.
- qwytw 3y ago
  > mowing Robots which do this are already cheap and widely available, I see them everywhere. Snow blower robots seem to be a thing too, not sure how useful are they. Racking leaves is probably also solvable problem. It just seems that it might be more effective/cheap/viable to have a bunch of way more simple specialized 'robots' than a very complex/expensive general purpose one.
  - Amasuriel 3y ago
    Not particularly good though. I did a fair bit of looking at them and tried a few on loan a couple years ago. At the time at least, you have to set up an electronic fence to set boundaries, which is very annoying if you have scattered garden beds or other obstacles it cannot bump into. Also like Roombas (the brand, not robot vacuums in general) they have poor sensors and no real coverages algorithms, they just semi randomly roam around. Battery life is also terrible, outdoor charging stations are harder to maintain etc. All I’m saying is, there is a long way to go before they become defacto better than a person with a mower, they are a fair bit of work and fuss right now to set up and keep running.
    - qwytw 3y ago
      > they have poor sensors and no real coverages algorithms, they just semi randomly roam around Husqvarna supports that, but yeah it might struggle on very complex areas (I've only really have any experience with it on fairly simple lawns). It's certainly not just randomly roaming around: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLdSLJu8acg&ab_channel=Husqvarna https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLdSLJu8acg&ab_channel=Husqv... I'm not even sure what other brands exist. They seem to completely dominate the market where I am.

thunky 3y ago

> Boston Dynamics' Parkourbot > you don't need to do summersaults, or run, or lift a lot to be able to do useful work I agree that it's a gimmick, but every time I see it I'm reminded of how far we are from having an in-home robot that can do useful work like wash the bed sheets and clean the toilet.

adventured 3y ago

Raking leaves, very basic yard upkeep and mowing, is worth around $10 / day to most people (if it's close to basic human performance at those tasks). One can debate the year it will arrive (less than 30 years, more than 10 years), the utility value of a robot that can do that well is extremely high though. And bring on the snow shoveling bots. Nearly every 50+ year old in cold climates will want one. Will we have to outfit them in specialized winter gear?

pclmulqdq 3y ago
I'm pretty convinced we can do snow removal robots now for a few thousand dollars plus a few hundred a year of maintenance (snow and electronics don't mix well), but you are competing with a 25-year-old with a truck and a snowplow blade who comes by and clears it for $100/month.
- qwytw 3y ago
  You can already get one for around $7000 which seems a bit steep: https://www.yarbo.com/shop https://www.yarbo.com/shop Lawnmower bots are relatively cheap, so the cost for snow ones will probably go down as well over time (then again the market for them is probably much smaller and yeah, snow removal is cheaper and easier for a human to do compared to lawn mowing)
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    With all due respect to that company, it also doesn't look like it can stand up to removing very thick snow or operating on a large surface area. My house (and a lot of others who would pay for this) regularly gets more than 12 inches of snow in one event every winter, so the robot would have to operate in the middle of a snowstorm to keep the driveway and sidewalk clear on the day that matters. Snow removal is also lot more physically strenuous than most other yard tasks, meaning much bigger motors and batteries, almost approaching car-sized.
qwytw 3y ago
> mowing Robots which do this are already cheap and widely available, I see them everywhere. Snow blower robots seem to be a thing too, not sure how useful are they. Racking leaves is probably also solvable problem. It just seems that it might be more effective/cheap/viable to have a bunch of way more simple specialized 'robots' than a very complex/expensive general purpose one.
- Amasuriel 3y ago
  Not particularly good though. I did a fair bit of looking at them and tried a few on loan a couple years ago. At the time at least, you have to set up an electronic fence to set boundaries, which is very annoying if you have scattered garden beds or other obstacles it cannot bump into. Also like Roombas (the brand, not robot vacuums in general) they have poor sensors and no real coverages algorithms, they just semi randomly roam around. Battery life is also terrible, outdoor charging stations are harder to maintain etc. All I’m saying is, there is a long way to go before they become defacto better than a person with a mower, they are a fair bit of work and fuss right now to set up and keep running.
  - qwytw 3y ago
    > they have poor sensors and no real coverages algorithms, they just semi randomly roam around Husqvarna supports that, but yeah it might struggle on very complex areas (I've only really have any experience with it on fairly simple lawns). It's certainly not just randomly roaming around: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLdSLJu8acg&ab_channel=Husqvarna https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLdSLJu8acg&ab_channel=Husqv... I'm not even sure what other brands exist. They seem to completely dominate the market where I am.