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They have $340bn of debt; even if they default on the whole amount, it's only 10% of China currency reserves. The problem, however, is not the nominal amount b
by csomar 3y ago
They have $340bn of debt; even if they default on the whole amount, it's only 10% of China currency reserves.
The problem, however, is not the nominal amount but how the company network is inter-connected with other companies (either abroad or locally). This amount, albeit not colossal (by China relative size) could trigger effects in other companies that will lead to their failure. This will go on until it becomes a full international crisis.
Of course, it could mean that just some rich intercontinental people have lost money on some Chinese developer bond. The thing is, no one knows. Not the leaders of the CCP nor the US do have insights whether this can go somewhere to just stop here.
- slushh 3y agoWould it be worthwhile to create the insights? E.g. if there were a global registry of credit dependencies and ownership, at least for system relevant companies, we should know what is going to happen. But what is the worst that could happen? If companies fold, ownership will be transferred. As long as the companies are profitable, their business will continue.
- riffraff 3y agoIf the assets are worth 10 but the debt is 100, creditors will not have anything of value transferred, and will have to write down a loss. This could be a small impact or a big one. If you are a person who was relying on those assets for income for your retirement this might mean you no longer have enough to live by. If you are a company you might in turn be forced to fold. If you're a stablecoin that bought evergrande bonds you might be forced to show you have no baking of your emissions..
- csomar 3y agoThat will mean companies won't have any privacy at all (all info will need to be public) and essentially centralize them into a single "massive" world company. It didn't work back then (it's similar to communism in that sense) and I don't think it'll work now (it's every bureaucrat wet dream).
- slushh 3y agoHow does public knowledge centralize the control of the companies? Owners would still be in control and there still would be laws prohibiting collusion between companies.
- SomeoneFromCA 3y ago340bn is the official account. the true number is unknown. And there are millions of other smaller developers who is indebted too.
- matwood 3y ago> 340bn is the official account. the true number is unknown. China is very good at controlling the real numbers that come out. Something like Evergrande failing can't be hidden, and could be the tip of the iceberg of much bigger issues coming to light.