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It's not reasonable to ask a country like China to suppress their "geopolitical ambitions". When you're that big, politically, militarily, economically, you ne

by hakfoo 3y ago

It's not reasonable to ask a country like China to suppress their "geopolitical ambitions". When you're that big, politically, militarily, economically, you need to be able to "clear your orbit" of other territories that could smash into you. It might be direct military involvement, or aggressive economic intervention (Belt and Road) Was this where Japan stumbled? They were militarily neutered after WWII and largely subject to US political whims-- did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder?

chii 3y ago
> did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder? which is a question framed from a zero-sum game. The world isn't zero sum. The idea is that the "stolen" economic opportunities would've been there for the japanese had it not been "stolen" is wrong. It's like saying that a pirated piece of music is a stolen sale. The fact is, japan's output didn't drop - the new asian tiger economy of south korea and taiwan caught up. The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly, they can benefit indirectly. I suppose china learnt the wrong lesson from this perspective observing japan. They do wish to prevent anyone else from stealing their thunder, and they are taking action right now for this purpose. And it is this very action that's causing the tension in asian pacific. Imagine if in an alternative world, the US did not invite china into the WTO, and worked to integrate them into global trade? If the US had held such a belief that the world was zero sum, china would not have had the opportunity to get foreign investment and become the manufacturing powerhouse it currently is today. And yet china cannot see how folly their current behaviour is, and insist on pursuing a geopolitical agenda that involve expansionism and coercion of their neighbours, rather than tight economic cooperation and integration.
- hakfoo 3y ago
  There's also the fact they're seeing the West trying to steal their thunder in real-time; hard not to be paranoid when everyone IS out to get you. The chipmaking-gear sanctions are both about enforcing a dependency on an independent Taiwan via TSMC, and keeping the PRC from being more militarily and economically self-sufficient. The ZTE and Huawei bans were less about security and more about cutting off a place where they had effectively undercut the Western competition. There was no hoop they could have jumped through that would have convinced regulators their gear was safe-- the fix was in from day one. We're seeing the same thing with TikTok now. It's easy to see a message of "we like you when you're making our cereal box toys, but don't get near our high value premium economic development" in those actions.
- twelve40 3y ago
  You're going to need some sources for these assertions you are making. > The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly Japan, SK and Taiwan are all export economies, they import energy, build sophisticated products in more or less similar industries, export them and punch way above their weight on the list of world's top exporters. If Hyundai grabs a chunk of Toyota's market around the world, and Samsung replaces Sony, that is a direct loss for the Japanese with no "indirect benefits" in sight.

by hakfoo 3y ago

chii 3y ago

> did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder? which is a question framed from a zero-sum game. The world isn't zero sum. The idea is that the "stolen" economic opportunities would've been there for the japanese had it not been "stolen" is wrong. It's like saying that a pirated piece of music is a stolen sale. The fact is, japan's output didn't drop - the new asian tiger economy of south korea and taiwan caught up. The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly, they can benefit indirectly. I suppose china learnt the wrong lesson from this perspective observing japan. They do wish to prevent anyone else from stealing their thunder, and they are taking action right now for this purpose. And it is this very action that's causing the tension in asian pacific. Imagine if in an alternative world, the US did not invite china into the WTO, and worked to integrate them into global trade? If the US had held such a belief that the world was zero sum, china would not have had the opportunity to get foreign investment and become the manufacturing powerhouse it currently is today. And yet china cannot see how folly their current behaviour is, and insist on pursuing a geopolitical agenda that involve expansionism and coercion of their neighbours, rather than tight economic cooperation and integration.

hakfoo 3y ago
There's also the fact they're seeing the West trying to steal their thunder in real-time; hard not to be paranoid when everyone IS out to get you. The chipmaking-gear sanctions are both about enforcing a dependency on an independent Taiwan via TSMC, and keeping the PRC from being more militarily and economically self-sufficient. The ZTE and Huawei bans were less about security and more about cutting off a place where they had effectively undercut the Western competition. There was no hoop they could have jumped through that would have convinced regulators their gear was safe-- the fix was in from day one. We're seeing the same thing with TikTok now. It's easy to see a message of "we like you when you're making our cereal box toys, but don't get near our high value premium economic development" in those actions.
twelve40 3y ago
You're going to need some sources for these assertions you are making. > The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly Japan, SK and Taiwan are all export economies, they import energy, build sophisticated products in more or less similar industries, export them and punch way above their weight on the list of world's top exporters. If Hyundai grabs a chunk of Toyota's market around the world, and Samsung replaces Sony, that is a direct loss for the Japanese with no "indirect benefits" in sight.