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Tldr is that Deng is more on working with the US side. Xi is trying to build his own empire and working against the US and its allies. This triggered a series o

Tldr is that Deng is more on working with the US side. Xi is trying to build his own empire and working against the US and its allies. This triggered a series of events of the US sanctions and the investments which are currently leaving china. During covid they found out that it's actually viable to slowly moving the manufacturing out of China. It's a slow bleed but the downward trend of China's economy is visible

satvikpendem 3y ago
It's likely that that would've happened even without the empire building, because the purchasing power of their citizenry has increased through modernizing their industrialization. So companies would still want to look for alternate sources of free labor.
- chii 3y ago
  it would've been fine, had china been more cooperative in opening up their internal markets for investments and move up the value chain - i cite japan as an example of what could happen if they cooperate and relinquish their absolute authoritarian views, and their geopolitical ambitions of empire building.
  - hakfoo 3y ago
    It's not reasonable to ask a country like China to suppress their "geopolitical ambitions". When you're that big, politically, militarily, economically, you need to be able to "clear your orbit" of other territories that could smash into you. It might be direct military involvement, or aggressive economic intervention (Belt and Road) Was this where Japan stumbled? They were militarily neutered after WWII and largely subject to US political whims-- did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder?
    - chii 3y ago
      > did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder? which is a question framed from a zero-sum game. The world isn't zero sum. The idea is that the "stolen" economic opportunities would've been there for the japanese had it not been "stolen" is wrong. It's like saying that a pirated piece of music is a stolen sale. The fact is, japan's output didn't drop - the new asian tiger economy of south korea and taiwan caught up. The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly, they can benefit indirectly. I suppose china learnt the wrong lesson from this perspective observing japan. They do wish to prevent anyone else from stealing their thunder, and they are taking action right now for this purpose. And it is this very action that's causing the tension in asian pacific. Imagine if in an alternative world, the US did not invite china into the WTO, and worked to integrate them into global trade? If the US had held such a belief that the world was zero sum, china would not have had the opportunity to get foreign investment and become the manufacturing powerhouse it currently is today. And yet china cannot see how folly their current behaviour is, and insist on pursuing a geopolitical agenda that involve expansionism and coercion of their neighbours, rather than tight economic cooperation and integration.
      - hakfoo 3y ago
        There's also the fact they're seeing the West trying to steal their thunder in real-time; hard not to be paranoid when everyone IS out to get you. The chipmaking-gear sanctions are both about enforcing a dependency on an independent Taiwan via TSMC, and keeping the PRC from being more militarily and economically self-sufficient. The ZTE and Huawei bans were less about security and more about cutting off a place where they had effectively undercut the Western competition. There was no hoop they could have jumped through that would have convinced regulators their gear was safe-- the fix was in from day one. We're seeing the same thing with TikTok now. It's easy to see a message of "we like you when you're making our cereal box toys, but don't get near our high value premium economic development" in those actions.
      - twelve40 3y ago
        You're going to need some sources for these assertions you are making. > The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly Japan, SK and Taiwan are all export economies, they import energy, build sophisticated products in more or less similar industries, export them and punch way above their weight on the list of world's top exporters. If Hyundai grabs a chunk of Toyota's market around the world, and Samsung replaces Sony, that is a direct loss for the Japanese with no "indirect benefits" in sight.
dirtyid 3y ago
During COVID PRC exports increased by 1T, more in 4 years than previous 10. Primarily in global south built up by BRI which in that context has paid for itself multiple times over. What's happening is PRC moving up global value chains while shedding low end manufacturing that started precovid. The TLDR is PRC modernization/development is increasingly infringing on medium/high end value chains that was previously monopolized by US/west. Whenever PRC domestic overcapacity translates to exports, it reduces operating income of incumbents, primarily western, by 50-90%, it destroys control of sectors west dominates in. Hence containment to keep PRC down and maintain western share. Xi unwinding bad parts of Deng's unchecked economic growth policies thats no longer sustainable.
- gloryjulio 3y ago
  Right. The stop of the release of the economy data is a bullish sign for the ccp ;D
  - dirtyid 3y ago
    PRC stopped releasing all sorts of data like AIS and cracked down on western compliance work to make it difficult for to enforce sanctions/export controls during cold war. Which doesn't change the fact that trade volumes are you know, bilateral data. It's easy to confirm with 3rd parties that PRC has undergone the largest pulse in globalization in human history the last 4 years. Same with PRC exports moving up value chain. Or PRC scitech moving up western science and innnovation indexes. Or rmb/yuan better performance vs other currencies inresponse to US deficit spending. Plenty of non PRC oblique indicators to suggest things are trending fine. Western news just like to focus on the few bad ones. Like retards who think 20% youth unemployment rate is end of the world when broad unemployment is 5%, i.e. people find work eventually. Or even if PRC has 50% youth unemployment (likely with this summer graduating largest tertiary cohort of 12m), with PRCs 60% tertiary rate and 5M STEM per year, that's still net 4-5x more talent being integrated into an increasingly high end economy vs west whose fundmental ability to integrate new talent is fraction of PRC even with immigration. If PRC is collapsing right now, everyone else is basically already stone dead.

satvikpendem 3y ago

It's likely that that would've happened even without the empire building, because the purchasing power of their citizenry has increased through modernizing their industrialization. So companies would still want to look for alternate sources of free labor.

chii 3y ago
it would've been fine, had china been more cooperative in opening up their internal markets for investments and move up the value chain - i cite japan as an example of what could happen if they cooperate and relinquish their absolute authoritarian views, and their geopolitical ambitions of empire building.
- hakfoo 3y ago
  It's not reasonable to ask a country like China to suppress their "geopolitical ambitions". When you're that big, politically, militarily, economically, you need to be able to "clear your orbit" of other territories that could smash into you. It might be direct military involvement, or aggressive economic intervention (Belt and Road) Was this where Japan stumbled? They were militarily neutered after WWII and largely subject to US political whims-- did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder?
  - chii 3y ago
    > did that restrict their ability to prevent Taiwan and Korea from stealing their economic thunder? which is a question framed from a zero-sum game. The world isn't zero sum. The idea is that the "stolen" economic opportunities would've been there for the japanese had it not been "stolen" is wrong. It's like saying that a pirated piece of music is a stolen sale. The fact is, japan's output didn't drop - the new asian tiger economy of south korea and taiwan caught up. The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly, they can benefit indirectly. I suppose china learnt the wrong lesson from this perspective observing japan. They do wish to prevent anyone else from stealing their thunder, and they are taking action right now for this purpose. And it is this very action that's causing the tension in asian pacific. Imagine if in an alternative world, the US did not invite china into the WTO, and worked to integrate them into global trade? If the US had held such a belief that the world was zero sum, china would not have had the opportunity to get foreign investment and become the manufacturing powerhouse it currently is today. And yet china cannot see how folly their current behaviour is, and insist on pursuing a geopolitical agenda that involve expansionism and coercion of their neighbours, rather than tight economic cooperation and integration.
    - hakfoo 3y ago
      There's also the fact they're seeing the West trying to steal their thunder in real-time; hard not to be paranoid when everyone IS out to get you. The chipmaking-gear sanctions are both about enforcing a dependency on an independent Taiwan via TSMC, and keeping the PRC from being more militarily and economically self-sufficient. The ZTE and Huawei bans were less about security and more about cutting off a place where they had effectively undercut the Western competition. There was no hoop they could have jumped through that would have convinced regulators their gear was safe-- the fix was in from day one. We're seeing the same thing with TikTok now. It's easy to see a message of "we like you when you're making our cereal box toys, but don't get near our high value premium economic development" in those actions.
    - twelve40 3y ago
      You're going to need some sources for these assertions you are making. > The world is richer because of it, even if the japanese didn't get to own a share of that wealth directly Japan, SK and Taiwan are all export economies, they import energy, build sophisticated products in more or less similar industries, export them and punch way above their weight on the list of world's top exporters. If Hyundai grabs a chunk of Toyota's market around the world, and Samsung replaces Sony, that is a direct loss for the Japanese with no "indirect benefits" in sight.

dirtyid 3y ago

During COVID PRC exports increased by 1T, more in 4 years than previous 10. Primarily in global south built up by BRI which in that context has paid for itself multiple times over. What's happening is PRC moving up global value chains while shedding low end manufacturing that started precovid. The TLDR is PRC modernization/development is increasingly infringing on medium/high end value chains that was previously monopolized by US/west. Whenever PRC domestic overcapacity translates to exports, it reduces operating income of incumbents, primarily western, by 50-90%, it destroys control of sectors west dominates in. Hence containment to keep PRC down and maintain western share. Xi unwinding bad parts of Deng's unchecked economic growth policies thats no longer sustainable.

gloryjulio 3y ago
Right. The stop of the release of the economy data is a bullish sign for the ccp ;D
- dirtyid 3y ago
  PRC stopped releasing all sorts of data like AIS and cracked down on western compliance work to make it difficult for to enforce sanctions/export controls during cold war. Which doesn't change the fact that trade volumes are you know, bilateral data. It's easy to confirm with 3rd parties that PRC has undergone the largest pulse in globalization in human history the last 4 years. Same with PRC exports moving up value chain. Or PRC scitech moving up western science and innnovation indexes. Or rmb/yuan better performance vs other currencies inresponse to US deficit spending. Plenty of non PRC oblique indicators to suggest things are trending fine. Western news just like to focus on the few bad ones. Like retards who think 20% youth unemployment rate is end of the world when broad unemployment is 5%, i.e. people find work eventually. Or even if PRC has 50% youth unemployment (likely with this summer graduating largest tertiary cohort of 12m), with PRCs 60% tertiary rate and 5M STEM per year, that's still net 4-5x more talent being integrated into an increasingly high end economy vs west whose fundmental ability to integrate new talent is fraction of PRC even with immigration. If PRC is collapsing right now, everyone else is basically already stone dead.