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I think a nuclear deterrence against insane countries like e.g. Russia is of critical importance. I'm am also concerned about the quality of the work on UK's f

by tpmx 3y ago

I think a nuclear deterrence against insane countries like e.g. Russia is of critical importance. I'm am also concerned about the quality of the work on UK's four nuclear subs. 2012: "British submariner tried to pass secrets to Russia" https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-russia-submarine-idUKBRE8BB0WP20121212 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-russia-submarine-... 2017: "Nuclear submarine sex and drugs scandal: Nine Trident crew expelled from Navy amid 'cocaine' and affairs allegations" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/navy-nuclear-submarine-sex-drugs-cocaine-hms-vigilant-trident-vanguard-women-in-armed-forces-a8024506.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/navy-nuclear... 2022: "British Submariners’ Emails Put U.K. Nuclear Deterrent At Risk, Judge Rules" https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/british-submariners-emails-put-u-k-nuclear-deterrent-at-risk-judge-rules https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/british-submariners-em... 2023: "Royal Navy orders investigation into nuclear submarine ‘repaired with glue’" https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/01/royal-navy-orders-investigation-into-nuclear-submarine-repaired-with-glue https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/01/royal-navy-o...

walrus01 3y ago
You didn't even get to the Astute class submarine that was run aground.
- mulmen 3y ago
  While not good isn't that kind of an accepted risk for submarines? We don't have complete maps of the ocean floor. Features shift. IDK the specific circumstances so maybe it was incompetence but the British submarine fleet isn't alone in running boats aground.
  - dylan604 3y ago
    Better than doing emergency blows directly underneath a civilian vessel. Especially damning was the emergency blow wasn't even necessary and was from show boating. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehime_Maru_and_USS_Greeneville_collision https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehime_Maru_and_USS_Greeneville...
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
duxup 3y ago
I worry that MAD requires the other actors to have accurate information, and act rationally. When an “insane” person makes the call I fear the entire system of deterrence falls apart…
- tpmx 3y ago
  I don't think Putin is insane. If he were we'd all be dead by now. Also: Suicidal people don't go to lengths to murder former threats to make a point, like he did today with the Wagner Group leadership.
  - mulmen 3y ago
    > I don't think Putin is insane. If he were we'd all be dead by now. How do you know the next leader of Russia will also be rational? Or the leaders of all other nuclear armed nations that may retaliate against Russia's "rational" actions? > Also: Suicidal people don't go to lengths to murder former threats to make a point, like he did today with the Wagner Group leadership. If your days are numbered the consequences don't apply. In that case why not seek vengeance? Killing rivals is basically a hobby for Putin.
    - tpmx 3y ago
      > How do you know the next leader of Russia will also be rational? That's probably our largest worst-case risk.
    - vkou 3y ago
      > How do you know the next leader of Russia will also be rational? How do you know the next leader of the US will be? It's not like people get elected to the position, or appoint their subordinates based on their rationality. That's the beauty of sovereign countries with enough nuclear weapons to kill the world, you don't. Maybe we should look into this bilateral arms reduction thing.
      - tpmx 3y ago
        Bilateral, you say? SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute): Countries with an increase in stockpiled nuclear warheads from Jan 2022 to Jan 2023: China: +60 Russia: +12 Pakistan: +5 North Korea: +5 India: +4 https://www.statista.com/chart/30173/the-countries-expanding-their-nuclear-arsenal/ https://www.statista.com/chart/30173/the-countries-expanding...
nonethewiser 3y ago
> The submarine has recently been embroiled in controversy over allegations of an onboard relationship between a male and female. Apparently the first female to sail on a sub was in 2014. So 3 years prior.

by tpmx 3y ago

walrus01 3y ago

You didn't even get to the Astute class submarine that was run aground.

mulmen 3y ago
While not good isn't that kind of an accepted risk for submarines? We don't have complete maps of the ocean floor. Features shift. IDK the specific circumstances so maybe it was incompetence but the British submarine fleet isn't alone in running boats aground.
- dylan604 3y ago
  Better than doing emergency blows directly underneath a civilian vessel. Especially damning was the emergency blow wasn't even necessary and was from show boating. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehime_Maru_and_USS_Greeneville_collision https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehime_Maru_and_USS_Greeneville...
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]

duxup 3y ago

I worry that MAD requires the other actors to have accurate information, and act rationally. When an “insane” person makes the call I fear the entire system of deterrence falls apart…

tpmx 3y ago
I don't think Putin is insane. If he were we'd all be dead by now. Also: Suicidal people don't go to lengths to murder former threats to make a point, like he did today with the Wagner Group leadership.
- mulmen 3y ago
  > I don't think Putin is insane. If he were we'd all be dead by now. How do you know the next leader of Russia will also be rational? Or the leaders of all other nuclear armed nations that may retaliate against Russia's "rational" actions? > Also: Suicidal people don't go to lengths to murder former threats to make a point, like he did today with the Wagner Group leadership. If your days are numbered the consequences don't apply. In that case why not seek vengeance? Killing rivals is basically a hobby for Putin.
  - tpmx 3y ago
    > How do you know the next leader of Russia will also be rational? That's probably our largest worst-case risk.
  - vkou 3y ago
    > How do you know the next leader of Russia will also be rational? How do you know the next leader of the US will be? It's not like people get elected to the position, or appoint their subordinates based on their rationality. That's the beauty of sovereign countries with enough nuclear weapons to kill the world, you don't. Maybe we should look into this bilateral arms reduction thing.
    - tpmx 3y ago
      Bilateral, you say? SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute): Countries with an increase in stockpiled nuclear warheads from Jan 2022 to Jan 2023: China: +60 Russia: +12 Pakistan: +5 North Korea: +5 India: +4 https://www.statista.com/chart/30173/the-countries-expanding-their-nuclear-arsenal/ https://www.statista.com/chart/30173/the-countries-expanding...

nonethewiser 3y ago

> The submarine has recently been embroiled in controversy over allegations of an onboard relationship between a male and female. Apparently the first female to sail on a sub was in 2014. So 3 years prior.