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First hurricane to hit California in 84 years
- nicechianti 3y ago[dead]
- tpmx 3y agohttps://www.cnn.com/2023/08/19/weather/hurricane-hilary-california-southwest-tropical-storm-saturday/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/19/weather/hurricane-hilary-cali... (updated 2 hours later than the WP article) The hurricane weakened from a very dangerous Category 4 to a Category 3 storm on Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. [...] Hilary is expected to continue to weaken as it moves north-northwestward through cooler waters toward Southern California.
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- yeahwhatever10 3y agoWith all these once in a 100 year events happening in the past decade it makes you rethink just how chaotic the 1910s-1930s were.
- nonethewiser 3y agoYeah climate change was really bad back then
- macinjosh 3y agoSeptember 28–October 1, 1932: The remnants of a hurricane brought four days of rain. Flash floods killed 15 people I mean, shit happens? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes
- freitzkriesler2 3y agoThat was particularly bad for a few reasons 1. There wasn't any weather station in the areas so people didn't know the storm was coming. 2. The LA area didn't have nearly as much of the US army corp of engineers' flood control systems it has today. LA nowadays has an incredibly robust flood control system. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a bad thunderstorm and mostly a nothing burger.
- ghaff 3y agoForecasting can make a huge difference. When a hurricane practically wiped Galveston off the map in 1900, US weather forecasting capabilities were extremely limited. [1] On a much smaller scale, there was the Blizzard of '78 which basically shut down Boston for a week and stuck many drivers on Route 128 from which they had to be laboriously evacuated. Quite a few people were stuck in their offices for a week--all in part because the storm pretty much caught everyone by surprise.[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeastern_United_States_blizzard_of_1978 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeastern_United_States_bli...
- Retric 3y agoMudslides are upstream of flood control systems and likely the biggest threat. Similarly local flooding can cause a great deal of damage without being part of a stream system. “Remnants of” Hurricane Ida killed 44 people in the NYC area in 2021, this is expected to still qualify as a tropical storm when it makes landfall.
- dragonwriter 3y ago1939, when there was a tropical storm track that actually ran through Southern California, is probably a better comparator (but, both general and, because of forecasting, specific preparedness should be much better this time – the existence of a Southern California forecast office, after all, was a direct response to that storm.) Track looks much farther inland: the 1939 storm hit Long Beach, the track for this is predicted to run over what looks like about the Imperial Valley, and up north toward (and potentially still with tropical storm winds into parts of) Nevada. Less populated areas directly in the track, but pretty much the whole width of Southern California is potentially going to get tropical storm strength winds, as well as whatever rains this brings, which are the real problem. The flash flood risk maps are…quite extensive. [0] https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/204534.shtml?ero#contents https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/204534.s...
- xvedejas 3y agoWhen you're rolling thousands of dice on phenomena that only happen once every hundred years, you'll get a lot of hits each decade.
- 7e 3y agoWhen the planet is this hot, the dice are loaded.
- snapplebobapple 3y agoProbably more that observation and promotion is 1000x better than 100 years vs planet warming. 100 years ago i would have no idea any of these things happened because they didn't directly affect me and the threshold for reporting it outside the affected area was dramatically higher due to cost constraints.
- BaseballPhysics 3y agoIt's both. The answer is both. These storms are becoming more frequent and more powerful, and the public is more aware of them.
- snapplebobapple 3y agoThat's usually what "probably more that..." means. The post I was responding to proposed one reason and I responded with the correct answer that it is probably more that reporting is quite a lot better now. If I was negating their answer I would have said "No, that is wrong, this is why...." Even in the last 40 years my answer is correct because people's exposure to this has increased leaps and bounds faster due to reporting than it has due to actual events happening. Hell, even in the 30 or so years I personally remember this is true. My local climate has barely changed while my exposure to news about climate disasters has exploded.
- oceanplexian 3y agoI feel like the science behind West Coast weather phenomena is dubious, if only because the West Coast US has basically no historical record. There probably were a number of extreme weather events that hit CA before the 19th century. In fact if you delve into it, there are a number of legends passed down from the indigenous peoples describing huge fires and unbelievable rain storms that flooded the whole of the central valley. 40M of people now live in a place where we have literally no idea what kind of weird one-off weather events hit every 100-200 years.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Madmallard 3y agowe've had several tropical storms in the last few decades. This is media overhype and climate scaring. I learned how to ride my bike as a child during tropical storm nora.
- ldehaan 3y ago[dead]
- UncleOxidant 3y agoI could swear I remember some kind of tropical storm/hurricane remnants hitting SoCal late last summer or maybe the summer before - was I dreaming of the future again? Edit: It was hurricane Kay: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kay_(2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kay_(2022)
- xvedejas 3y agoYou might be thinking of an Atmospheric River / "pineapple express"? While that phenomenon may originate from roughly the tropics, it's not the same as a Tropical Storm.
- UncleOxidant 3y agoNope. This was hurricane remnants coming up from the south. I even recall tuning into some SoCal news stations for some live coverage. The atmospheric rivers come in the winter - this was late summer. Maybe it had weakened more and wasn't considered a tropical storm then, maybe just a tropical depression. Edit: maybe it was hurricane Kay? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kay_(2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kay_(2022) "As Kay moved northward, it transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone overnight 9–10, not far southwest from San Diego, California"
- bandyaboot 3y agoIt was tropical storm Kay last year. It weakened to a post tropical storm some ways away from San Diego and ultimately turned back south. Though you are correct that it did have some impacts to California.
- UncleOxidant 3y agoYeah, that's the one I'm remembering. I kept hearing "this hasn't happened in 84 years" and was thinking, didn't it just happen last year? But apparently Kay was a good bit weaker than Hilary will be when it arrives in San Diego.
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- Fricken 3y agoI blame poor forest management.
- azinman2 3y agoYou forgot the /s
- RobRivera 3y agoand the public school system
- andsoitis 3y agoIt is Disney's fault. The whole Florida thing is just a distraction. In fact, the hurricane might have come from Florida.
- bombcar 3y agoDisney experiences a setback in Florida and now hurricanes hit California? I think you’re on to something.
- Cthulhu_ 3y agoDisney is a cover story for the high-tech survivors of Atlantis who have lived among us for thousands of years hiding their weather controlling technology from us. They're causing global warming now so that the seas evaporate and their old city will re-emerge from the cities, along with ancient R'lyeh which they will visit to make sacrifices to the Great Old One, Dread Cthulhu, in the hopes that He will eat them first and release them from this curse. or. something. Aliens.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- CrzyLngPwd 3y agohttps://archive.is/xrKNt https://archive.is/xrKNt
- te_chris 3y agoI always thought storms in the pacific were called ‘cyclones’.
- parineum 3y agoNorth/South hemisphere is the distinction there.
- BaseballPhysics 3y agoIt's a bit more nuanced than that: https://gpm.nasa.gov/resources/faq/what-difference-between-typhoon-cyclone-and-hurricane https://gpm.nasa.gov/resources/faq/what-difference-between-t... > The terms "hurricane" and "typhoon" are regional names for tropical cyclones. ... > Over the Atlantic and East Pacific, tropical cyclones are commonly called "hurricanes." The common term is "typhoon" for a tropical cyclone that forms in the West Pacific. Tropical cyclones are called just "cyclones" in the Indian Ocean and near Australia. So basically they're all cyclones, but depending on where they originate they might get more specific terms as well.
- dragonwriter 3y agoThey are all tropical cyclones. In the North Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific, the strongest tropical cyclones are called “hurricanes”, while weaker ones (at least in the US) are called “tropical storms” and “tropical depressions”, in declining order of strength. In the Northwestern Pacific, the strongest are called “typhoons”. Elsewhere (South Pacific and Indian Ocean), they are just all called tropical cyclones or cyclonic storms, with additional adjectives denoting strength.
- williamcotton 3y agoTechnically they are all called tropical cyclones with the word hurricane being specific to the North Atlantic.
- dragonwriter 3y ago“Hurricane” is a word for a particular strength of tropical cyclone particular to the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific (which is why Hilary, which we are discussing, is currently a hurricane, despite very much not being an Atlantic storm.)
- WillPostForFood 3y agoLike a lot of weather stories, this is overblown. It won't be a hurricane by the time it gets to California, and remnants of hurricanes/cyclones are not infrequent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes
- fortysixdegrees 3y agoFor anyone in CA or Nevada reading this misguided comment, please read the latest update from the forecasters at NHC: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2 Teaser: "The 19/12z NAEFS is indicating IVT values 19.1 sigmas above the mean;"
- nomel 3y agoMean for this time of year?
- WillPostForFood 3y ago.1" is average rainfall for the whole month of August for Los Angeles, so if they get 3" today, it is both a massive 30x the month in a day, and also nothing to panic about.
- WillPostForFood 3y ago3" of rain in hour - will cause flooding and damage, but is not a rare event. https://tscrestoration.com/tscnw/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/worst-floods-california-mapped1.png https://tscrestoration.com/tscnw/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/...
- WillPostForFood 3y agoSerious question, overblown or not? CEnter has passed San Diego and they got .97" of rain (SD Airport measurement). Riverside 1.4". LAX 1.27", Long Beach 1.56". This was fear mongering: "The 19/12z NAEFS is indicating IVT values 19.1 sigmas above the mean;"
- tayo42 3y agoSlightly worried about fires starting. Sandy was tropical storm that hit an area that was unprepared, lots of flooding. Don't think so cal is going to handle that well. Along with the power companies being kind of shit... Good luck
- jeffbee 3y agoSolar power production is already down by half from a typical summer day and the rain isn't really here yet. CAISO is forecasting substantially reduced supply capacity for Sunday. Luckily, they are also forecasting very little demand.
- andsoitis 3y agoList of California Hurricanes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes Note, Hilary won't be Hurricane by the time it hits California. Just a Tropical Storm.
- fortysixdegrees 3y agoThat's not how this works. It's the water, not the wind. This is completely unprecedented
- andsoitis 3y agoI know. I live in Los Angeles. Last winter we had 12 atmospheric rivers over 2 or 3 months, each dumping as much water in a 24h period as Hilary is expected for our area. Areas like Palm Springs, though, are expecting much more and I’m worried about my friends there. However, to say a hurricane is hitting California is hyperbole. I’ve been in hurricanes in both Florida and New York.
- s1artibartfast 3y agoUnprecedented? How about when the Central Valley fills up with water every 300 years? Is someone actually claiming that this is never happened in the history of California?
- HumblyTossed 3y agoThere’s nothing “just” about tropical storms.
- casion 3y agoFor some people it is. A tropical storm doesn't even shut down schools here. Some folks are being ignorant and dismissive with "just", and some are relating their personal experiences. I have caught myself saying "just 2 inches of rain" since we get that frequently, sometimes in an hour or two. For many people that is a dangerous and life changing amount of rain... and that can be easy to forget if it isn't for you. tldr; hanlon's razor
- chrisco255 3y ago[flagged]
- johntfella 3y agointerestingly research on San Andreas fault and Salton sea was recently published in July noting of fill up relating to slip rate; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06058-9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06058-9 Another study published for September looks further into the history of slip rate and fill up; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118271 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118271
- anon84873628 3y agoVery interesting. Any estimates on how much water the Salton Sea might gain from this storm? How would it compare to historical levels? (Including those used in the earthquake modeling)
- johntfella 3y agono idea, was hoping someone more in the know of the field would comment. one thing id ponder too is.. the time frame... how long say for fill up to slippage? i just link cause i had come across the study from a news story month back and it just one of those weird things almost akin to simulation where its like "of course this brings a lot of rain to the area"... hopefully its not enough to do much in that grand scheme of things and just enough to help with drought conditions ie hoping salt lake gets some of that rain too.
- xeromal 3y agoSo is this saying that the more water is in the salton sea, the more earthquakes could take place?
- johntfella 3y agowashington post article is probably more straightforward, to quote "The team created a computer model that simulated how a full lake affected the fault. They found high water levels in Lake Cahuilla prompted activity along the fault in two aspects. First, the weight of the lake water caused the crust beneath it to bend, unlocking the plates so they don’t touch as much. The lake water also seeped into the cracks and pores in Earth’s crust beneath it, increasing the fluid pressure inside the fault and further unclasping the plates." https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/07/earthquake-california-san-andreas/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/0... * Sorry for formatting, not really my strength.
- fortysixdegrees 3y agoI posted this in a comment but going to post it again at the top level. For anyone interested in discussing this, I highly recommend you read the NHC forecasters day 2 summary. Ignore the media, just go straight to the source. This is very much unprecedented, despite many here posting that hurricane remnants hit CA all the time. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2
- resolutebat 3y agoHere's the bit, buried towards the end: The 19/12z NAEFS is indicating IVT values 19.1 sigmas above the mean; it should be noted that it is using a dataset that does not include the rash of tropical cyclones that impacted the Southwest in the 1970's, so this value is likely a bit too high. Even assuming a non-standard distribution and standard deviations half as large, this is extreme. There is a very real potential for 3" amounts in an hour in this environment should sufficient instability be present. Even if instability was completely eroded, 0.5" an hour totals would be possible; heavy rain appears inevitable. The 00z Canadian Regional shows local amounts of towards 10", which would be exceeding rare for the region from a tropical cyclone, potentially unique for Nevada. The 100 year ARI is forecast to be exceeded. Some locations within this arid region are slated to get 1-2 years worth of rain in one day. If a 7"+ maximum materialized over Mount Charleston Sunday into early Monday, it would challenge Nevada's 24 hour rainfall record, set in 2004.
- pard68 3y agoWhat's wild to me is that 1-3" of rain / hour is about our norm for any given storm (southern MO, where evey cloud is a microburst). Really helps put into perspective how little rain Cali is used to.
- dpe82 3y agoAt least that part of California. It's a gigantic state and some areas see fairly significant seasonal rain. This storm, however, will impact a region that includes the Mojave Desert - the dryest place in North America.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- kepler1 3y agoIs this not the anticipated reason our predecessors built all that infrastructure for channelizing and holding in the water all over LA?
- tstrimple 3y agoNo. It’s because it’s practically a desert and deserts have problems with flash flooding since the ground can’t soak up water effectively. Throwing concrete on huge portions of the city also contributes to flooding issues.
- wlonkly 3y agoMy understanding is that the channels, especially channelizing the LA River, were done to handle floodwater from further inland in the watershed, especially the mountains in spring. Having to handle both incoming floodwaters and record-setting local rain is beyond their design specs.
- mtreis86 3y agoI pay close attention to Tropical Tidbits for Atlantic storm season, their latest on this storm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJlBocxz0gs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJlBocxz0gs No sensationalizing, just meteorology. I also like Joe and Joe for the same reason, they usually do a Sunday morning show. Bit more long form. Both retired meteorologists: https://www.youtube.com/@JoeCioffiweather https://www.youtube.com/@JoeCioffiweather
- pvg 3y agoDaniel Swain, a climate scientist who covers the western end of the US. https://twitter.com/Weather_West/ https://twitter.com/Weather_West/ Does a thing called 'Virtual Weather Office Hours', often daily if there's a lot going on (or about to be going on) https://www.youtube.com/@WeatherWest/streams https://www.youtube.com/@WeatherWest/streams
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y agoThe rainfall estimates for Twentynine Palms and Death Valley are crazy- I'm no expert but I expect this to change the area forever. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/204534.shtml?rainqpf https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/204534.s... https://www.dvidshub.net/news/451702/hurricane-hilary-impact-marine-corps-air-ground-combat-center-twentynine-palms https://www.dvidshub.net/news/451702/hurricane-hilary-impact... > A storm with such severity has not occurred since 1939. > Anticipate substantial rainfall from heavy rain bands, with precipitation ranging between 8 to 15 inches
- soligern 3y agoWhy would it change it forever, Death Valley gets torrential rains and flash floods a few times a year already.
- js2 3y agoDeath Valley had a 1,000 year rain event last August: > The 1.46 inches of rain recorded at Furnace Creek is still preliminary data, and mere drops away from the all-time record of 1.47 inches. The rain caused widespread damage and closure of all park roads. https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/death-valley-experiences-1-000-year-rain-event.htm https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/death-valley-experiences... If Hillary is expected to drop 8-15 inches in Death Valley, that's going to be quite a bit more water.
- xeromal 3y agoI drove through 29 palms a month or so ago and half of the main roads around there is washed away. It was a split off Amboy road I think.
- CatWChainsaw 3y agoThe Atacama Desert historically gets bursts of rainfall that cause the desert to briefly burst into vibrant bloom. It's still the Atacama Desert.
- malkia 3y agoHere is a flood-risk modelling of Los Angeles area published last year - https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/80af8f6b7b8749258b3305fe5a9d4815 https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/80af8f6b7b8749258b3305f...
- anonuser123456 3y agoThis map looks like a topomap. According to said map, I will be 1 meter underwater in a 100 year flood. But the map also looks to ignore the 4 meters of steel/concrete lined channel that run behind my neighborhood. FEMA puts me in zone X (500 year flood zone).
- anonuser123456 3y agoAs someone in Socal, not really concerned. The atmospheric rivers last year were far more terrifying. We had a ton of snowpack, and if they had come along just a little bit later in the year we could have had an Arkstorm scenario.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]