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For context: This refers to an Economist special published in 1999 ("The sick man of the euro") which fuelled a public discourse in Germany on what needs to be
by mitjam 3y ago
For context: This refers to an Economist special published in 1999 ("The sick man of the euro") which fuelled a public discourse in Germany on what needs to be improved leading up to the labor market reforms under chancellor Schröder ("Hartz IV" etc.). This fixed the most imminent problem of the time (high unemployment rate, inflexible labor market) and led to a stronger economic period in Germany.
This time, the underlying problems are probably much harder to tackle:
1. Germany's economic model depends on high worker productivity, strong education, cheap energy (still large industry base). All of these have structural weaknesses.
2. The public discourse is very much focussed on climate change, allowing little room for other discourses. Don't get me wrong: I believe the climate change discourse is globally the most important discourse of our time; it is just that there is little room left for other broad social discourses in Germany, at the moment.
3. No immediate pressure comparable to the high unemployment rate at the time. The German economy is getting comparably weaker, slowly but steadily. (Boiling frog problem)
That the economy is getting weaker, is eg. visible in GDP constant prices growth rate stats. It is yet not as severe as last time (between 2003 and 2006, Germany was last in G7, even behind Japan, and Italy with base year 1999), but the gap between the best performing G7 countries (US, Canada), number 3 (UK) and Germany is widening. Since 2017 Germany has fallen behind France, too (except in 2020). (see https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April/weo-report?c=156,132,134,136,158,112,111,&s=NGDP_R,&sy=1999&ey=2028&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/Ap...)
- wink 3y ago> little room left for other broad social discourses in Germany, at the moment Now you can call me a pessimist, but if we look back at the last 2 decades, did any social discourse really bring out anything positive? The right-wing politicians are gaining more platform and more supporters, even the so-called social democrats brought us things like Hartz IV, the populists are always at work to call in less taxation for rich people by lying to poorer und uneducated people "they want to increase taxes! You'd get 10€ less per month!" while failing to admit they would maybe get 1000€ or 10k€ less per month)
- mitjam 3y agoI agree to some degree but in my view, in a democracy, big changes (especially those that hurt short term) require public discourse to be legitimate. In addition, on a practical level, few politicians risk pushing a big agenda without backing from the public opinion.