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Some amount of the value baked-in assumes that SpaceX will earn money on any of the thousands of revenue sources possible in the creation and running of the fir

Some amount of the value baked-in assumes that SpaceX will earn money on any of the thousands of revenue sources possible in the creation and running of the first large-scale city on Mars. Maybe you think it isn't going to happen - and sure there is some risk (!) - but in the successful case, SpaceX should be worth many trillions. At least.

justapassenger 3y ago
It’s amazing that after hacker community got to see how full of shit guy making those promises is, with Twitter, some still believe that in other areas he’s not lying.
angiosperm 3y ago
Hint: Starship cans are comically inadequate to support a martian colony. They might be just adequate to maintain a lunar outpost -- if they turn out to work at all. We don't even know if humans can survive, long-term, in 0.3g; zero g, anyway, is right out. Life in centrifuges on Mars would be even less fun than in cans. If some follow-on vehicle were ever developed adequate to support a martian colony, and lunar gravity were to turn out to suffice, getting any actual value return from such a vehicle is hard to imagine. You might try to use it to support automated mining of platinum-group metals from asteroids, but it is far from clear how that could be made to work out. That it seems possible in principle is usually not considered a sound basis for investment. Musk certainly understands all of the above. He will cash out long before it is demonstrated to all be a pipe dream.
- Dylan16807 3y ago
  Support a colony, as in bringing supplies? How could any rocket that can deliver several tons be inadequate for that?
  - angiosperm 3y ago
    Maybe look into how many launches are needed to loft fuel to send just one can to Mars. And, how many passengers, realistically, fit in a can on a 9-month (note, not 6-month) trip, with supplies for the trip. Hint, not 100, and not 20. Hopefully the supplies needed to survive there are in other cans already there. Literally nothing there is worth exporting except maybe reality TV; not cans, and not even just engines taken off the cans. Never mind homesick colonists. Pressure suits for everybody on board might be crammed in, but more likely just two or three to use collecting more from cargo ships already landed.
mcpackieh 3y ago
> Some amount of the value baked-in assumes that SpaceX will earn money on any of the thousands of revenue sources possible in the creation and running of the first large-scale city on Mars. For that to make any sense at all, somebody would need to figure out a profitable economy for a Mars colony. Nobody has been able to do that. Big defense contracts from the US military is where SpaceX will strike gold, if they do. All the money is in launching stuff into Earth orbit to serve some practical purpose on Earth.
HWR_14 3y ago
What value is there for a city on Mars? At least for people who live on earth.

justapassenger 3y ago

It’s amazing that after hacker community got to see how full of shit guy making those promises is, with Twitter, some still believe that in other areas he’s not lying.

angiosperm 3y ago

Hint: Starship cans are comically inadequate to support a martian colony. They might be just adequate to maintain a lunar outpost -- if they turn out to work at all. We don't even know if humans can survive, long-term, in 0.3g; zero g, anyway, is right out. Life in centrifuges on Mars would be even less fun than in cans. If some follow-on vehicle were ever developed adequate to support a martian colony, and lunar gravity were to turn out to suffice, getting any actual value return from such a vehicle is hard to imagine. You might try to use it to support automated mining of platinum-group metals from asteroids, but it is far from clear how that could be made to work out. That it seems possible in principle is usually not considered a sound basis for investment. Musk certainly understands all of the above. He will cash out long before it is demonstrated to all be a pipe dream.

Dylan16807 3y ago
Support a colony, as in bringing supplies? How could any rocket that can deliver several tons be inadequate for that?
- angiosperm 3y ago
  Maybe look into how many launches are needed to loft fuel to send just one can to Mars. And, how many passengers, realistically, fit in a can on a 9-month (note, not 6-month) trip, with supplies for the trip. Hint, not 100, and not 20. Hopefully the supplies needed to survive there are in other cans already there. Literally nothing there is worth exporting except maybe reality TV; not cans, and not even just engines taken off the cans. Never mind homesick colonists. Pressure suits for everybody on board might be crammed in, but more likely just two or three to use collecting more from cargo ships already landed.

mcpackieh 3y ago

> Some amount of the value baked-in assumes that SpaceX will earn money on any of the thousands of revenue sources possible in the creation and running of the first large-scale city on Mars. For that to make any sense at all, somebody would need to figure out a profitable economy for a Mars colony. Nobody has been able to do that. Big defense contracts from the US military is where SpaceX will strike gold, if they do. All the money is in launching stuff into Earth orbit to serve some practical purpose on Earth.

HWR_14 3y ago

What value is there for a city on Mars? At least for people who live on earth.