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They can only capture the demand for orbital launch. The Russia aggression in 2022 helped a lot, as SpaceX took 'free' market share, and their superior (or rath
by orwin 3y ago
They can only capture the demand for orbital launch. The Russia aggression in 2022 helped a lot, as SpaceX took 'free' market share, and their superior (or rather, inferior) costs gave them the majority of commercial launches from every country except Russia/China, and they will also probably get most Nasa and US allies (except EU) launches.
I'll say they will cap at 8-10B revenue (+inflation).
But this year, SpaceX will
- justrealist 3y agoUsing the market size at $2700/kg to LEO to size the market is ridiculous when they are working on trying to get it to $100/kg to LEO. If the only launch vehicle was the SLS, the market size would be $0. That's not meaningful!
- orwin 3y agoWhy would you compare it to Sls, that makes no sense. SLS is meant to replace Saturn 5 launchers, no? It will have like max 20 launches. The market size is limited, because, well, why would you send stuff up there? GPS, telco, science (iss). I guess if you make it cheap enough, high class hostels? (doubt it, and you have to have human rated spacecraft). Until space mining is a thing, and in that case you should rather invest in mining companies, the market size is limited.