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That's pretty modest for a company with 100% y/y growth on revenue already in the billions.

hef19898 3y ago
Assuming rocket launch demand continues to grow exponentially, which I kind of doubt. Also, I'd love to see how Starlink is accounted for.
- pixl97 3y ago
  >Assuming rocket launch demand continues to grow exponentially The issue here is the market doesn't know where we are on the S curve. If we've looking at space shuttle prices, we are at the end of the curve. If SpaceX pulls off reusability with the starship, then I'm going to make guesses we are much lower on the curve then most expect. If they can get 'cheap' launches of 100-200T to orbit then a massive number of new possibilities open up and SpaceX won't sit around as just a cheap transport monopoly, they expand horizontally into other space based markets.
- Vecr 3y ago
  Not if the Space Development Agency and SDI have anything to say about it, though I actually doubt they will get funding.
orwin 3y ago
They can only capture the demand for orbital launch. The Russia aggression in 2022 helped a lot, as SpaceX took 'free' market share, and their superior (or rather, inferior) costs gave them the majority of commercial launches from every country except Russia/China, and they will also probably get most Nasa and US allies (except EU) launches. I'll say they will cap at 8-10B revenue (+inflation). But this year, SpaceX will
- justrealist 3y ago
  Using the market size at $2700/kg to LEO to size the market is ridiculous when they are working on trying to get it to $100/kg to LEO. If the only launch vehicle was the SLS, the market size would be $0. That's not meaningful!
  - orwin 3y ago
    Why would you compare it to Sls, that makes no sense. SLS is meant to replace Saturn 5 launchers, no? It will have like max 20 launches. The market size is limited, because, well, why would you send stuff up there? GPS, telco, science (iss). I guess if you make it cheap enough, high class hostels? (doubt it, and you have to have human rated spacecraft). Until space mining is a thing, and in that case you should rather invest in mining companies, the market size is limited.

hef19898 3y ago

Assuming rocket launch demand continues to grow exponentially, which I kind of doubt. Also, I'd love to see how Starlink is accounted for.

pixl97 3y ago
>Assuming rocket launch demand continues to grow exponentially The issue here is the market doesn't know where we are on the S curve. If we've looking at space shuttle prices, we are at the end of the curve. If SpaceX pulls off reusability with the starship, then I'm going to make guesses we are much lower on the curve then most expect. If they can get 'cheap' launches of 100-200T to orbit then a massive number of new possibilities open up and SpaceX won't sit around as just a cheap transport monopoly, they expand horizontally into other space based markets.
Vecr 3y ago
Not if the Space Development Agency and SDI have anything to say about it, though I actually doubt they will get funding.

orwin 3y ago

They can only capture the demand for orbital launch. The Russia aggression in 2022 helped a lot, as SpaceX took 'free' market share, and their superior (or rather, inferior) costs gave them the majority of commercial launches from every country except Russia/China, and they will also probably get most Nasa and US allies (except EU) launches. I'll say they will cap at 8-10B revenue (+inflation). But this year, SpaceX will

justrealist 3y ago
Using the market size at $2700/kg to LEO to size the market is ridiculous when they are working on trying to get it to $100/kg to LEO. If the only launch vehicle was the SLS, the market size would be $0. That's not meaningful!
- orwin 3y ago
  Why would you compare it to Sls, that makes no sense. SLS is meant to replace Saturn 5 launchers, no? It will have like max 20 launches. The market size is limited, because, well, why would you send stuff up there? GPS, telco, science (iss). I guess if you make it cheap enough, high class hostels? (doubt it, and you have to have human rated spacecraft). Until space mining is a thing, and in that case you should rather invest in mining companies, the market size is limited.