3 ms·

I think a lot of the skepticism around solar/wind/storage rests on an incorrect understanding of how easily variability can be dealt with. Which is understandab

by pydry 3y ago

I think a lot of the skepticism around solar/wind/storage rests on an incorrect understanding of how easily variability can be dealt with. Which is understandable, because it's quite a complex problem to model. The story on that is surprisingly positive, but it's quite easy to FUD by parties with a vested interest (carbon lobby, nuclear lobby) because some people will hear: * "well, the sun doesn't shine at night. the wind doesn't always blow! check mate!" E.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37161473 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37161473 (posted after I wrote this) or, if it's aimed at a slightly higher intellectual level, things like: * "pumped storage is a nice idea but realistically there just isn't enough space for all the pumped storage we need". E.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37161790 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37161790 (posted after I wrote this) * "we need 1-2 weeks worth of storage to deal with the inherent instability of wind/solar" And they'll believe it because it all sounds plausible enough, even though it's wrong. And then they'll repeat it all over hacker news lol...

dahfizz 3y ago
Care to elaborate on what we do when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, then?
- pydry 3y ago
  Demand shaping - Germany pioneered this by dialing aluminum smelter usage up and down in the early days. They didn't talk about it much, I think because it functioned as a kind of hidden subsidy and they didn't want to attract undue attention. There's LOTS of scope for stuff like heaters and vehicles batteries to use electricity when it's plentiful and cheap and turn it off when it's not. The UK has a special electricity tariff for this already which is very popular with electric car drivers. Demand shaping is, relative to storage, really cheap and usually gets forgotten about in skeptical renewable energy models. Pumped storage and batteries for short term energy storage - hours to weeks. Australia is already building one pumped storage battery which should provide them with roughly 350GWh - roughly half of the short term storage they'd need if they had a 100% solar and wind based grid. With one plant. You can't do this in, e.g. Florida but the geography to build this is more than plentiful enough in most of the world (this topic is pretty well settled: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14555-y https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14555-y but for some reason people keep disputing it). Hydrogen for seasonal storage - for weeks when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Roughly 2-3% of power will need to be stored this way on a 100% solar/wind grid. It's not efficient and expensive to generate hydrogen from electricity and then turn it back into electricity but still cheaper than generating and using nuclear power at the point of generation. It is cheap to store enormous amounts of power for long periods this way though.
  - matkoniecz 3y ago
    The Australian project is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power... But it seems hardly replicable say in central Europe.
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      Maybe not now. But prices are reducing at 80% per decade, so it's likely only a few years away from being achievable.
      - matkoniecz 3y ago
        Even if solar would cost literally zero, then it does not solve problem that there is no place to fit such megasized pumped storage. (I am speaking about central Europe or more specifically Poland)
        pydry 3y ago
        See the study linked to in my comment above. The one where I said "weirdly people keep disputing this". In Europe there's some geography known as "the alps" which has been used for years this way by the countries surrounding it. Poland's environmental record is atrocious on almost every level. I guess the coal lobby must run the government or something because nobody else in Europe that reliant on fuel that dirty. They're a model of how not to do anything right.
        matkoniecz 3y ago
        > In Europe there's some geography known as "the alps" which has been used for years this way by the countries surrounding it. Well, that is hardly solution for Poland.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        You don't need rivers or even much of a slope for pumped storage. Just water and a few hundred feet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power...
matkoniecz 3y ago
> even though it's wrong Which part is wrong? Except that we need more than 1-2 weeks worth of storage to rely on solar/wind as anything more than occasional addition.
- pydry 3y ago
  E.g. https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-powered-grid-47605/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-p... "Graham says that the CSIRO modelling showed that at very high levels of wind and solar, a maximum of half a day’s average demand was needed for storage. In some areas of the grid, only around three hours might be needed." Or: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/03/01/12-hours-energy-storage-80-percent-wind-solar/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/03/01/12-hours-energy-stora... The amount of short term storage to get a grid between 80-95% running on solar/wind is measured in hours. Electrolyzing and storing hydrogen in an underground cavern can buffer the rest and be stored easily for years if necessary.
  - matkoniecz 3y ago
    It seems to be about Australia, right? While not really applicable to for example Poland where solar and wind are far less stable. Which one of reports at linked http://www.energynetworks.com.au/projects/electricity-network-transformation-roadmap/entr-other-reports/ http://www.energynetworks.com.au/projects/electricity-networ... is one that you refer to here? For the second one - is "more responsive loads" code for "load shedding" which is code for brownouts and blackouts?
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    That's the kind of just-in-time thinking that's one unfortunate dice roll from plunging people back to pre-industrial levels. So what if we roll another Eyjafjallajökull in one part of the world, simultaneously with a war breaking out in another, and some large-scale maintenance ongoing in another part still, while everyone's grid is designed to keep "oh half a day's tops" and not a watt more, because ain't anyone gonna pay for it? With globally reduced capacity for, say, a week, that "half a day's average demand" worth of storage may start running dangerously low, and what then? Will we somehow scramble to fire up long-closed fossil fuel plants in that time?
shakow 3y ago
> even though it's wrong. Well, empirically, we only observe that countries heavily relying on renewable (Denmark and Germany are the poster children) (i) have a much worse average CO2/kWh ratio, (ii) still need to import energy when, well, the wind does not blow and the Sun does not shine. But feel free to elaborate on where this is wrong.
- pydry 3y ago
  https://en.energinet.dk/About-our-news/News/2021/06/22/Danish-electricity-generation-was-greener-than-ever-in-2020/ https://en.energinet.dk/About-our-news/News/2021/06/22/Danis... 117 looks ok to me. They're probably one of the most improved countries in the world in the last 10 years, although overall France's is likely still lower thanks to all their 1970s nuclear power plants - decarbonizing decades before anybody gave a damn about global warming. For reference Poland is at like 650. They use an ungodly amount of coal. Environmentally Poland are an absolute a disaster compared to every country in Europe (even poorer ones), but, they didn't shut down a couple of aging nuclear power plants so they're on the good side of the American nuclear power lobby and get relatively little stick.
  - shakow 3y ago
    Poland is (i) a pretty poor country compared to Germany, (ii) does not present itself as the “obviously right way forward”, (iii) didn't close perfectly working nuke plants to please the Grüne, (iv) does not actively lobby with all its might against nuclear power in each and every single EU instance, (v) produces ~5× more electricity than Poland for ~2.7× the population, so they are obviously more impactful. > they're on the good side of the American nuclear power lobby and get relatively little stick. I'm French, I don't care about American nuke power lobby – and frankly, given the pitiful state of electricity CO2/kWh in the US and how much coal is burned, it seems that this lobby must not wield that much influence.
    - pydry 3y ago
      >Poland is does not present itself as the “obviously right way forward”, (iii) didn't close perfectly working nuke plants to please the Grüne Exactly why they haven't enraged the nuclear lobby. The nuclear lobby couldn't give a damn about the environment and neither does their supporters.
ekianjo 3y ago
If its so wrong then why has no country or even a city ever achieved it? Surely california has tons of taxpayer money in excess what is preventing them to do all that?

by pydry 3y ago

dahfizz 3y ago

Care to elaborate on what we do when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, then?

pydry 3y ago
Demand shaping - Germany pioneered this by dialing aluminum smelter usage up and down in the early days. They didn't talk about it much, I think because it functioned as a kind of hidden subsidy and they didn't want to attract undue attention. There's LOTS of scope for stuff like heaters and vehicles batteries to use electricity when it's plentiful and cheap and turn it off when it's not. The UK has a special electricity tariff for this already which is very popular with electric car drivers. Demand shaping is, relative to storage, really cheap and usually gets forgotten about in skeptical renewable energy models. Pumped storage and batteries for short term energy storage - hours to weeks. Australia is already building one pumped storage battery which should provide them with roughly 350GWh - roughly half of the short term storage they'd need if they had a 100% solar and wind based grid. With one plant. You can't do this in, e.g. Florida but the geography to build this is more than plentiful enough in most of the world (this topic is pretty well settled: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14555-y https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14555-y but for some reason people keep disputing it). Hydrogen for seasonal storage - for weeks when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Roughly 2-3% of power will need to be stored this way on a 100% solar/wind grid. It's not efficient and expensive to generate hydrogen from electricity and then turn it back into electricity but still cheaper than generating and using nuclear power at the point of generation. It is cheap to store enormous amounts of power for long periods this way though.
- matkoniecz 3y ago
  The Australian project is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power... But it seems hardly replicable say in central Europe.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    Maybe not now. But prices are reducing at 80% per decade, so it's likely only a few years away from being achievable.
    - matkoniecz 3y ago
      Even if solar would cost literally zero, then it does not solve problem that there is no place to fit such megasized pumped storage. (I am speaking about central Europe or more specifically Poland)
      - pydry 3y ago
        See the study linked to in my comment above. The one where I said "weirdly people keep disputing this". In Europe there's some geography known as "the alps" which has been used for years this way by the countries surrounding it. Poland's environmental record is atrocious on almost every level. I guess the coal lobby must run the government or something because nobody else in Europe that reliant on fuel that dirty. They're a model of how not to do anything right.
        matkoniecz 3y ago
        > In Europe there's some geography known as "the alps" which has been used for years this way by the countries surrounding it. Well, that is hardly solution for Poland.
      - bryanlarsen 3y ago
        You don't need rivers or even much of a slope for pumped storage. Just water and a few hundred feet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power...

matkoniecz 3y ago

> even though it's wrong Which part is wrong? Except that we need more than 1-2 weeks worth of storage to rely on solar/wind as anything more than occasional addition.

pydry 3y ago
E.g. https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-powered-grid-47605/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-p... "Graham says that the CSIRO modelling showed that at very high levels of wind and solar, a maximum of half a day’s average demand was needed for storage. In some areas of the grid, only around three hours might be needed." Or: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/03/01/12-hours-energy-storage-80-percent-wind-solar/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/03/01/12-hours-energy-stora... The amount of short term storage to get a grid between 80-95% running on solar/wind is measured in hours. Electrolyzing and storing hydrogen in an underground cavern can buffer the rest and be stored easily for years if necessary.
- matkoniecz 3y ago
  It seems to be about Australia, right? While not really applicable to for example Poland where solar and wind are far less stable. Which one of reports at linked http://www.energynetworks.com.au/projects/electricity-network-transformation-roadmap/entr-other-reports/ http://www.energynetworks.com.au/projects/electricity-networ... is one that you refer to here? For the second one - is "more responsive loads" code for "load shedding" which is code for brownouts and blackouts?
- TeMPOraL 3y ago
  That's the kind of just-in-time thinking that's one unfortunate dice roll from plunging people back to pre-industrial levels. So what if we roll another Eyjafjallajökull in one part of the world, simultaneously with a war breaking out in another, and some large-scale maintenance ongoing in another part still, while everyone's grid is designed to keep "oh half a day's tops" and not a watt more, because ain't anyone gonna pay for it? With globally reduced capacity for, say, a week, that "half a day's average demand" worth of storage may start running dangerously low, and what then? Will we somehow scramble to fire up long-closed fossil fuel plants in that time?

shakow 3y ago

> even though it's wrong. Well, empirically, we only observe that countries heavily relying on renewable (Denmark and Germany are the poster children) (i) have a much worse average CO2/kWh ratio, (ii) still need to import energy when, well, the wind does not blow and the Sun does not shine. But feel free to elaborate on where this is wrong.

pydry 3y ago
https://en.energinet.dk/About-our-news/News/2021/06/22/Danish-electricity-generation-was-greener-than-ever-in-2020/ https://en.energinet.dk/About-our-news/News/2021/06/22/Danis... 117 looks ok to me. They're probably one of the most improved countries in the world in the last 10 years, although overall France's is likely still lower thanks to all their 1970s nuclear power plants - decarbonizing decades before anybody gave a damn about global warming. For reference Poland is at like 650. They use an ungodly amount of coal. Environmentally Poland are an absolute a disaster compared to every country in Europe (even poorer ones), but, they didn't shut down a couple of aging nuclear power plants so they're on the good side of the American nuclear power lobby and get relatively little stick.
- shakow 3y ago
  Poland is (i) a pretty poor country compared to Germany, (ii) does not present itself as the “obviously right way forward”, (iii) didn't close perfectly working nuke plants to please the Grüne, (iv) does not actively lobby with all its might against nuclear power in each and every single EU instance, (v) produces ~5× more electricity than Poland for ~2.7× the population, so they are obviously more impactful. > they're on the good side of the American nuclear power lobby and get relatively little stick. I'm French, I don't care about American nuke power lobby – and frankly, given the pitiful state of electricity CO2/kWh in the US and how much coal is burned, it seems that this lobby must not wield that much influence.
  - pydry 3y ago
    >Poland is does not present itself as the “obviously right way forward”, (iii) didn't close perfectly working nuke plants to please the Grüne Exactly why they haven't enraged the nuclear lobby. The nuclear lobby couldn't give a damn about the environment and neither does their supporters.

ekianjo 3y ago

If its so wrong then why has no country or even a city ever achieved it? Surely california has tons of taxpayer money in excess what is preventing them to do all that?