5 ms·

How such a war plays out is anyone's guess. After seeing Russia's disasterous show in Ukraine, the 2nd best military in the world right now is China. But that

How such a war plays out is anyone's guess. After seeing Russia's disasterous show in Ukraine, the 2nd best military in the world right now is China. But that says a lot. Those exercises they do encircling Taiwan are plans at best and in the words of Muhammad Ali, "everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face." Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
> Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China. That is too definitive. As you say, it really depends on what happens, it could mean the end of China, which is why I'm hoping the PRC doesn't even try, but they could also succeed without much resistance if the Americans stay put in the ryukyus and the Taiwanese can't offer much resistance.
- freitzkriesler2 3y ago
  Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    > Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty. That would be MAD, I doubt the USA would go that far. But a couple of aircraft carriers and a few F-35s and F-22s...no problem.
    - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
      Nukes these days are about strategic destruction of economic assets, not blanket salting the earth. MAD was only really a problem in the 60s and 70s when delivery systems were fuzzy and they were going for a wide berth. A nuclear exchange today would be much more precise. Not a complete volley to glass everything. Not to mention, anti missile tech has been black tech for years. Here's a video of a mkv defense tool made by Lockheed back in 2008 https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZWQgZmxvYXRpbmcgZGVmZW5zZSByb2NrZXQg https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZ... This is the stuff they show off. Imagine the stuff they haven't shown yet. I am not worried at all.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        If you can parse this to show how any of the text here would give the US a pretext to use nuclear weapons in defense of Taiwan in a first use scenario I'd be much obliged: https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/10-04-06_NPR%20201%20Briefing%20-%201032.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defens...
        freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        Posting a document from 2012, especially from during the Obama years? Are you kidding or just trolling? US foreign policy has changed drastically. That document is 11 years old and isn't even on the DoD's site anymore. Stick to evaluating tech companies, because geopolitics ain't your strong suit.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    by who? the US isn't going to drop nukes to secure Taiwan. that creates the Fallout 3 universe for little measurable gain. 50% of Americans couldn't point out Taiwan on a map. they don't give a shit, and after 20 years of fighting two pointless wars the US public isn't keen on pissing away blood or treasury to defend someone else's freedom. they're certainly not going to risk WW3 / MAD. the correct choice is what is going on, to hustle fabs and fab construction out of the country, and then jam them full of anti-ship and anti-tank missiles. just like with Ukraine let them bleed the Chinese out and piss away heaps of troops and cash fighting in Taiwan's mountains.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    That's very, very unlikely. What is more likely is that TSMC would find itself sabotaged to the point that the previous global chip shortage looked like a blip and that the West would look on while China occupied Taiwan and installed a puppet regime. This is also why you see all kinds of investments in alternate fabs. The only reason the rest of the world is concerned about Taiwan is the strategic importance of Taiwan for chip manufacturing, other than that there isn't much. Of course everybody would wring their hands and make speeches but I highly doubt WWIII would start over Taiwan. But if Russia invades Poland or the Baltics (even by proxy) all bets are off, and this is one of the things that I consider still very high on the likelihood scale, that there will be a large provocation from Belarus towards NATO with Russia pretending it wasn't them.
    - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
      Going to disagree. The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. This isn't something TPTB are willing to accept or allow. Such an invasion is the precursor to a hot nuclear war almost immediately with China becoming a pariah state over night. At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. It was obvious Russia was going to invade Ukraine. China won't be able to do a surprise attack.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        > The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. The US may not have a choice. They would have to be willing to escalate to WWIII levels to stop it and that may - depending on who is in the driving seat - a lot more or less likely. My guess is that if the Republicans win the next election cycle that the chances of Taiwan being invaded go up considerably. Note that wars are started because countries turn inwards and are ended because countries realize that without a world to operate in they themselves can't function. Plenty of lessons reinforce that. The Republicans and the people that would rather let Ukraine be overrun have significant overlap and if and when they come to power again there will be serious trouble, with the magnitude of the trouble directly related to how willing the USA is to continue to lead NATO. Note that there are plenty of voices that the US should stop supporting Ukraine from the right side of aisle and that that alone could be a green light for Xi to move on Taiwan. > Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. That's not that important, the US is able to project power around the globe from its own continent with ease. The question is whether it is willing to use that power. The moment the credible threat goes out the window there will be a free for all. > At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. Yes, because the US needs Taiwan right now. But if they no longer need Taiwan then that support may well evaporate, and Japan, Korea and Singapore are all painfully aware that it may not last. For instance there have been longstanding talks about Japan rearming. https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spending-weapons-buildup-rearming https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spen... Japan is concerned both about the Chinese and the Russians. > A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. Yes, which they could do in a few hours, and there is absolutely no way that the US will make a first strike on the Chinese fleet in international waters with nuclear - or any other - weapons. Only when they cross the line demarcating the Taiwanese coastal waters would there be a green light for action, my guess is that that action would be mostly concerned with making sure that there wasn't any reason to continue with the invasion because everything of value was destroyed. It would be a useless victory. I'm fairly sure that Xi - and Putin - are both surprised at the degree of support that Ukraine has received to date - too little, in my view - and that the effect on the Russian economy has been very strong. And the Russian economy was less dependent on the West than the Chinese one. So that more than anything is what is probably signalling that invading Taiwan isn't going to end well for the invader. But that may not stop them from trying, though I still consider Xi to be a more rational leader than Putin.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

> Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China. That is too definitive. As you say, it really depends on what happens, it could mean the end of China, which is why I'm hoping the PRC doesn't even try, but they could also succeed without much resistance if the Americans stay put in the ryukyus and the Taiwanese can't offer much resistance.

freitzkriesler2 3y ago
Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  > Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty. That would be MAD, I doubt the USA would go that far. But a couple of aircraft carriers and a few F-35s and F-22s...no problem.
  - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
    Nukes these days are about strategic destruction of economic assets, not blanket salting the earth. MAD was only really a problem in the 60s and 70s when delivery systems were fuzzy and they were going for a wide berth. A nuclear exchange today would be much more precise. Not a complete volley to glass everything. Not to mention, anti missile tech has been black tech for years. Here's a video of a mkv defense tool made by Lockheed back in 2008 https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZWQgZmxvYXRpbmcgZGVmZW5zZSByb2NrZXQg https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZ... This is the stuff they show off. Imagine the stuff they haven't shown yet. I am not worried at all.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      If you can parse this to show how any of the text here would give the US a pretext to use nuclear weapons in defense of Taiwan in a first use scenario I'd be much obliged: https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/10-04-06_NPR%20201%20Briefing%20-%201032.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defens...
      - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        Posting a document from 2012, especially from during the Obama years? Are you kidding or just trolling? US foreign policy has changed drastically. That document is 11 years old and isn't even on the DoD's site anymore. Stick to evaluating tech companies, because geopolitics ain't your strong suit.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago
  by who? the US isn't going to drop nukes to secure Taiwan. that creates the Fallout 3 universe for little measurable gain. 50% of Americans couldn't point out Taiwan on a map. they don't give a shit, and after 20 years of fighting two pointless wars the US public isn't keen on pissing away blood or treasury to defend someone else's freedom. they're certainly not going to risk WW3 / MAD. the correct choice is what is going on, to hustle fabs and fab construction out of the country, and then jam them full of anti-ship and anti-tank missiles. just like with Ukraine let them bleed the Chinese out and piss away heaps of troops and cash fighting in Taiwan's mountains.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  That's very, very unlikely. What is more likely is that TSMC would find itself sabotaged to the point that the previous global chip shortage looked like a blip and that the West would look on while China occupied Taiwan and installed a puppet regime. This is also why you see all kinds of investments in alternate fabs. The only reason the rest of the world is concerned about Taiwan is the strategic importance of Taiwan for chip manufacturing, other than that there isn't much. Of course everybody would wring their hands and make speeches but I highly doubt WWIII would start over Taiwan. But if Russia invades Poland or the Baltics (even by proxy) all bets are off, and this is one of the things that I consider still very high on the likelihood scale, that there will be a large provocation from Belarus towards NATO with Russia pretending it wasn't them.
  - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
    Going to disagree. The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. This isn't something TPTB are willing to accept or allow. Such an invasion is the precursor to a hot nuclear war almost immediately with China becoming a pariah state over night. At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. It was obvious Russia was going to invade Ukraine. China won't be able to do a surprise attack.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      > The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. The US may not have a choice. They would have to be willing to escalate to WWIII levels to stop it and that may - depending on who is in the driving seat - a lot more or less likely. My guess is that if the Republicans win the next election cycle that the chances of Taiwan being invaded go up considerably. Note that wars are started because countries turn inwards and are ended because countries realize that without a world to operate in they themselves can't function. Plenty of lessons reinforce that. The Republicans and the people that would rather let Ukraine be overrun have significant overlap and if and when they come to power again there will be serious trouble, with the magnitude of the trouble directly related to how willing the USA is to continue to lead NATO. Note that there are plenty of voices that the US should stop supporting Ukraine from the right side of aisle and that that alone could be a green light for Xi to move on Taiwan. > Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. That's not that important, the US is able to project power around the globe from its own continent with ease. The question is whether it is willing to use that power. The moment the credible threat goes out the window there will be a free for all. > At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. Yes, because the US needs Taiwan right now. But if they no longer need Taiwan then that support may well evaporate, and Japan, Korea and Singapore are all painfully aware that it may not last. For instance there have been longstanding talks about Japan rearming. https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spending-weapons-buildup-rearming https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spen... Japan is concerned both about the Chinese and the Russians. > A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. Yes, which they could do in a few hours, and there is absolutely no way that the US will make a first strike on the Chinese fleet in international waters with nuclear - or any other - weapons. Only when they cross the line demarcating the Taiwanese coastal waters would there be a green light for action, my guess is that that action would be mostly concerned with making sure that there wasn't any reason to continue with the invasion because everything of value was destroyed. It would be a useless victory. I'm fairly sure that Xi - and Putin - are both surprised at the degree of support that Ukraine has received to date - too little, in my view - and that the effect on the Russian economy has been very strong. And the Russian economy was less dependent on the West than the Chinese one. So that more than anything is what is probably signalling that invading Taiwan isn't going to end well for the invader. But that may not stop them from trying, though I still consider Xi to be a more rational leader than Putin.