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Regardless of whether or not Xi wants to reunify China there is still risk. A talk I watched a while ago basically pointed out that China is making a turn towar

Regardless of whether or not Xi wants to reunify China there is still risk. A talk I watched a while ago basically pointed out that China is making a turn towards authoritarianism right now as several major challenges are piling up, i.e. the demographic pyramid, the COVID response that caused massive problems, the Evergreen issues, companies moving out of China, etc. In response to this a turn towards authoritarianism is greatly facilitated by creating an external enemy that can provide purpose, whilst also providing an outlet and reason for why things are going poorly, and forcing people to rally behind a leader. All these things combine to make attempting to attack Taiwan very appealing for the CCP and Xi. The problem is the US has to stick to Taiwan, because if we don't hold fast in Taiwan then we also lose Korea, Japan and possibly Singapore as an ally. Things look grim for all involved. I only pray we can figure out a way to peacefully navigate this, because a war of the scale being discussed is going to be globally devastating.

freitzkriesler2 3y ago
How such a war plays out is anyone's guess. After seeing Russia's disasterous show in Ukraine, the 2nd best military in the world right now is China. But that says a lot. Those exercises they do encircling Taiwan are plans at best and in the words of Muhammad Ali, "everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face." Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  > Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China. That is too definitive. As you say, it really depends on what happens, it could mean the end of China, which is why I'm hoping the PRC doesn't even try, but they could also succeed without much resistance if the Americans stay put in the ryukyus and the Taiwanese can't offer much resistance.
  - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
    Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      > Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty. That would be MAD, I doubt the USA would go that far. But a couple of aircraft carriers and a few F-35s and F-22s...no problem.
      - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        Nukes these days are about strategic destruction of economic assets, not blanket salting the earth. MAD was only really a problem in the 60s and 70s when delivery systems were fuzzy and they were going for a wide berth. A nuclear exchange today would be much more precise. Not a complete volley to glass everything. Not to mention, anti missile tech has been black tech for years. Here's a video of a mkv defense tool made by Lockheed back in 2008 https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZWQgZmxvYXRpbmcgZGVmZW5zZSByb2NrZXQg https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZ... This is the stuff they show off. Imagine the stuff they haven't shown yet. I am not worried at all.
        jacquesm 3y ago
        If you can parse this to show how any of the text here would give the US a pretext to use nuclear weapons in defense of Taiwan in a first use scenario I'd be much obliged: https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/10-04-06_NPR%20201%20Briefing%20-%201032.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defens...
        freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        Posting a document from 2012, especially from during the Obama years? Are you kidding or just trolling? US foreign policy has changed drastically. That document is 11 years old and isn't even on the DoD's site anymore. Stick to evaluating tech companies, because geopolitics ain't your strong suit.
    - red-iron-pine 3y ago
      by who? the US isn't going to drop nukes to secure Taiwan. that creates the Fallout 3 universe for little measurable gain. 50% of Americans couldn't point out Taiwan on a map. they don't give a shit, and after 20 years of fighting two pointless wars the US public isn't keen on pissing away blood or treasury to defend someone else's freedom. they're certainly not going to risk WW3 / MAD. the correct choice is what is going on, to hustle fabs and fab construction out of the country, and then jam them full of anti-ship and anti-tank missiles. just like with Ukraine let them bleed the Chinese out and piss away heaps of troops and cash fighting in Taiwan's mountains.

freitzkriesler2 3y ago

How such a war plays out is anyone's guess. After seeing Russia's disasterous show in Ukraine, the 2nd best military in the world right now is China. But that says a lot. Those exercises they do encircling Taiwan are plans at best and in the words of Muhammad Ali, "everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face." Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
> Any attempted invasion would mean the end of China. That is too definitive. As you say, it really depends on what happens, it could mean the end of China, which is why I'm hoping the PRC doesn't even try, but they could also succeed without much resistance if the Americans stay put in the ryukyus and the Taiwanese can't offer much resistance.
- freitzkriesler2 3y ago
  Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    > Any attempted invasion would have nukes used on the invasion craft. Not pretty. That would be MAD, I doubt the USA would go that far. But a couple of aircraft carriers and a few F-35s and F-22s...no problem.
    - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
      Nukes these days are about strategic destruction of economic assets, not blanket salting the earth. MAD was only really a problem in the 60s and 70s when delivery systems were fuzzy and they were going for a wide berth. A nuclear exchange today would be much more precise. Not a complete volley to glass everything. Not to mention, anti missile tech has been black tech for years. Here's a video of a mkv defense tool made by Lockheed back in 2008 https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZWQgZmxvYXRpbmcgZGVmZW5zZSByb2NrZXQg https://wwe.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM&pp=ygUhTG9ja2hlZ... This is the stuff they show off. Imagine the stuff they haven't shown yet. I am not worried at all.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        If you can parse this to show how any of the text here would give the US a pretext to use nuclear weapons in defense of Taiwan in a first use scenario I'd be much obliged: https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/10-04-06_NPR%20201%20Briefing%20-%201032.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20121227050836/http://www.defens...
        freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        Posting a document from 2012, especially from during the Obama years? Are you kidding or just trolling? US foreign policy has changed drastically. That document is 11 years old and isn't even on the DoD's site anymore. Stick to evaluating tech companies, because geopolitics ain't your strong suit.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    by who? the US isn't going to drop nukes to secure Taiwan. that creates the Fallout 3 universe for little measurable gain. 50% of Americans couldn't point out Taiwan on a map. they don't give a shit, and after 20 years of fighting two pointless wars the US public isn't keen on pissing away blood or treasury to defend someone else's freedom. they're certainly not going to risk WW3 / MAD. the correct choice is what is going on, to hustle fabs and fab construction out of the country, and then jam them full of anti-ship and anti-tank missiles. just like with Ukraine let them bleed the Chinese out and piss away heaps of troops and cash fighting in Taiwan's mountains.