7 ms·

Previously I thought he was just delaying endlessly because a life on bail is better than 40 years in prison. But increasingly I think he's just crazy. Not cra

Previously I thought he was just delaying endlessly because a life on bail is better than 40 years in prison. But increasingly I think he's just crazy. Not crazy enough for an insanity defence. But too crazy to act reliably...

jacquesm 3y ago
There has to be a certain mental aftereffect of going from a coddled life where nothing ever happens to you because you're a 'main character' and everybody else is just an NPC to the point where those NPC's put you in jail and hold you responsible for your actions. I've seen the term 'affluenza' in relation to this and it very much reminds me of some of the children of wealthy people that I know. They feel that they have deserved their station in life and that there is absolutely nothing wrong with them getting a free pass for whatever transgressions they make because they're the golden children of the future. This results in the weirdest excesses and - invariably - they are proven right over and over again. Daddy will bail them out, buy off the authorities or donate to the school and all is forgiven. Running into the wall at this speed has to be a rude wake-up call.
- FabHK 3y ago
  > 'affluenza' Nice term. Logan's kids on the TV series "Succession" definitely exhibited that affliction.
  - luc4sdreyer 3y ago
    The term became very popular during Ethan Couch's trial, because the judge bought it. > Couch was indicted on four counts of intoxication manslaughter for recklessly driving under the influence. In December 2013, Judge Jean Hudson Boyd sentenced Couch to ten years of probation, subsequently ordering him to undergo therapy at a long term inpatient facility. Before sentencing, Couch's attorneys had argued that Couch had "affluenza" and needed rehabilitation instead of prison, arguing that Couch had no understanding of boundaries as his affluent parents had never given him any. Couch's sentence, judged by many as outrageously lenient, set off what The New York Times called "an emotional, angry debate that has stretched far beyond the North Texas suburbs". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Couch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Couch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affluenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affluenza
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      It's interesting that this pretty much codifies the 'rich people have it easier in court' phenomenon, if 'being rich' is something that you can use in your defense no matter what the crime then that's an end run around justice. The discrepancy when dealing with rich vs poor in court is already tremendous, this acts like a force multiplier. I'd like to see that same judge looking at someone who is poor to give poverty as a defense being equally lenient. But I'm not too optimistic about that happening.
  - LatteLazy 3y ago
    30Rock called it "trust fund kids disease".
- spacebanana7 3y ago
  The stereotypical behavioural problems of new money Hollywood actors and musicians also fits the term 'affluenza'. Easy to imagine how celebrities could be deceived by social dynamics into thinking non-celebrities are NPCs.
- jongjong 3y ago
  The fall from affluence is like falling into a pit whose bottom keeps breaking and falling out each time after you land. As soon as you've fully absorbed the shock of the previous fall, you start falling again. I can't imagine what it would feel like to fall from such extreme heights to such extreme lows.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    I've seen this happen to two different German guys that I knew. Neither of them managed to put their lives back together afterwards. What also stands out for me about them is that they were complete jerks to others when they were 'riding high' and never for a second considered that the tables might be turned some day. But when that happened the amount of soft revenge they had to deal with was such that one of them removed himself from society completely. Because all of the supplicants when he was wealthy had his number when he wasn't in control of their lives anymore. Both ended up divorced. Your description of the ground beneath breaking up over again and keep falling deeper is very apt. That's exactly how it happened.
    - coldcode 3y ago
      It's also the basis for Bob Dylan's "Like A Rolling Stone".
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        That's a great song about the fall from on high. Dylan is a master poet.
  - bmitc 3y ago
    From what I gather, the highs were were quite superficial and manufactured.
    - mysfi 3y ago
      It was still high enough not to sense gravity.
- notahacker 3y ago
  The other dimension to it is he's spent most of his adult life being praised by Very Serious People for the rationality of his penchant for taking massive gambles and claiming they're just applied utilitarianism[1], why not take a few more... [1]this is the most infamous example https://archive.ph/Yg64e https://archive.ph/Yg64e
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    That page does not load for me.
    - notahacker 3y ago
      Not sure why, works fine on both my machines. It's the hagiography removed from Sequoia's website which amongst other things praises him not doing any due diligence on his business deals as understanding the prisoners' dilemma, paints him dropping out of his first job without a plan as ingenious "risk neutrality" rather than what loads of disaffected graduates with a safety net do and sees his decision to play League of Legends through his investment meeting with them as a sign of how awesome he is rather than a warning sign about his priorities and/or executive function...
    - blamazon 3y ago
      It may be DNS, the operator of the archive.today sites intentionally blocks certain DNS providers: https://jarv.is/notes/cloudflare-dns-archive-is-blocked/ https://jarv.is/notes/cloudflare-dns-archive-is-blocked/
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        Ah, ok, interesting, I did not know that.
- Ajay-p 3y ago
  I think it has grown to more than the children of rich parents. Rejecting responsibility for one's actions appears to be indicative of today's young adults. Their behavior in schools and public suggests they feel entitled, and even a victim of responsibility.
  - M2Ys4U 3y ago
    >Rejecting responsibility for one's actions appears to be indicative of today's young adults. Their behavior in schools and public suggests they feel entitled, and even a victim of responsibility. Members of every generation have said this (or similar) about the generations that have come after them.
    - Ajay-p 3y ago
      That is true. Are we seeing a repeat or is this a new level?
drexlspivey 3y ago
Does the amount of time before trial come out of your sentence?
- londons_explore 3y ago
  Yes, but only if you're actually in prison. It's part of the reason some people don't post bail - if you're pretty sure you're going to end up in prison anyway, you might as well get started early so you can get out sooner.
  - hutzlibu 3y ago
    I'll guess it depends how old you are and how much prison time you are facing.
    - LatteLazy 3y ago
      If you in your 20s and looking at >40 years, it looks pretty similar to a life sentence whether you will technically be released or not...
      - glimshe 3y ago
        And arguably you'd rather enjoy your 20s than your 60s out of prison. Health problems of old age are a prison of their own.
        JohnFen 3y ago
        Having health problems in your 60s is not guaranteed. My experience is that every decade after my 20s have been better than the previous decade. If I had to sacrifice a couple of decades, I'd rather them be my younger ones than my older ones.
        glimshe 3y ago
        I'm happy to hear that, it's just that the opposite is generally true for the vast majority of people as actuarial tables indicate. Nonetheless, I wish you health for many more years!
gizmo 3y ago
The problem with ponzi schemes is that they need to keep growing and growing but nothing can keep growing indefinitely. Most people, even those without any scruples, understand this and avoid ponzi schemes exactly because they inevitably blow up. SBF knowingly went down a road that would land him in prison. His current behavior is self-destructive in exactly the same way. You can't expect SBF to behave rationally because if he was capable of that he would still be living the wealthy crypto life. He wouldn't have started a ponzi scheme in the first place.
- mousetree 3y ago
  It wasn’t a ponzi. He just took customers’ funds, gave them to Alameda and then gambled them away. To my knowledge there was no ponzi mechanism where older investors were paid from money invested by newer investors.
  - gizmo 3y ago
    FTX offered an 8% yield on assets. Where does that yield come from? SBF also famously joked on the odd lots podcast that he was in the ponzi business.
    - plagiarist 3y ago
      I remember looking at those yield percentages and feeling tempted. 6-8% seemed insanely high compared to the fed rate at the time. I passed because it seemed like the best case scenario for my finances is that I would be making some sort of defi loan to a cartel or warlord. It was obviously some form of pyramid scheme based on the rate alone.
    - LatteLazy 3y ago
      Actually 8% is a pretty low yield for a crypto lending service. And very achievable in tradfi. Plus staking/lending was only a tiny part of their business. Ftx was a huge fraud. Just not the flavour you think!
      - 3y ago
lordnacho 3y ago
Reminds me of when you're rolling a D&D character and you have the difference between intelligence and wisdom. For me intelligence is having good models of how the world works. Wisdom is making good decisions.
- glimshe 3y ago
  After years of D&D, this is the best description I've heard of the difference. Bravo!
mrtksn 3y ago
As He keeps treated with kid gloves, he fails to recognise the seriousness of the situation he's in. A life of privilege does this to people because people in privilege just get all the understanding and benefit of the doubt and when they are nailed, they get a slap on the wrist. It's just how it is, the examples are endless but from a recent popular culture, you can make though experiment about someone of privilege attempting to poison someone at school v.s. someone off privilege doing the same. When the thing is high profile enough and tightly put into the system they will end up getting the legal punishment but the process for them is way way less painful. Cross a border illegally? you sleep on the ground alone, covered with foil blanked for months in a detention center, you final punishment might not be something very high but your process is painful. You defraud people, go after them and, harass them and if you get caught you are surrounded with people sympathetic to you, trying to make sure that you don't have a time of hardship other than you are legally required. The final punishment can be something like living for many years in a highly secure building with no personal schedule and access to the rest of the society but at no point you suffer beyond that. You also get lot's of people around you trying to make sure that you will live in that building as less as possible. IMHO He will not grasp the seriousness of his situation until everything is over and starts feeling some pain when he has some brilliant idea about crypto or something but he is locked up and can't pursue it.
wonderwonder 3y ago
I think its malignant narcissism. If you believe you are smarter than everyone else for long enough you convince yourself you can get away with anything. If you actually manage to get away with things for long enough as SBF did for a long time, your worldview is probably pretty warped by it and you think you are the only one smart enough to solve the situation you find yourself in. This is why people like SBF and Trump ignore the advice of counsel and just keep running their mouths. They cannot help themselves. They cannot stop. If they are smart, wealthy and lucky enough they get away with it to... until they dont.
- JohnFen 3y ago
  > If you believe you are smarter than everyone else for long enough you convince yourself you can get away with anything. Indeed. That's why there's a rule of thumb that says that the instant you think you're better or smarter than everyone else in the room, you've just become the dumbest person in the room.
JohnFen 3y ago
> Not crazy enough for an insanity defence. Just as a point of interest, in terms of a legal defense in the US, "insanity" isn't what a lot of people think. It's not a medical term, and whether or not you're considered "insane" by the medical community doesn't enter into it. All it means is that the person is unable to discern between right and wrong. That's it. And if you successfully employ the defense (which very rarely succeeds), it doesn't mean you go free. It more likely means that you'll be institutionalized differently.
P_I_Staker 3y ago
Huh? This is perfectly normal court house stuff. Happening currently in your county court. None of this is crazy. You're going to lose for sure, and then there goes your life. Literally anything makes sense to do. Try to seduce the prosecutor. Hypnosis. That one spell from Harry Potter that lets you control people. All better options than doing nothing.
- LatteLazy 3y ago
  I mean, fleeing the country would make perfect sense to me. Publishing your ex-girlfriends diary to try and get her not to testify, after already randomly breaking other bail conditions to no gain just seems dumb. Why would he be trying anything except (a) staying on bail and (b) arranging to disappear to a non extradition country?
  - P_I_Staker 3y ago
    Yes, criminals are often very dumb. Do you think SBF is smart? This seems kinda dumb. He thought it was a good idea to steal a bunch of peoples money, while lying and pretending to help people, with his batshit ideology. Now his life is fucked. If he gets his due, he's gonna be doing 10-40+ years. I think there's a real chance he won't get the book at him (eg Jeff Skilling, don't know if I spelled his name right, don't care). It's not really worth it. Plus, everyone knows what a POS you are, which undermines your whole goal of making the world think you're an angel. Anyway it's actually not a "smart person / dumb person" thing. You can be plenty smart, and you will probably still do some headscratching things in these situations. People reliably do. Lawyers do. I'm also still just shocked that you seem to assume good decision making from the man, considering his history.

jacquesm 3y ago

There has to be a certain mental aftereffect of going from a coddled life where nothing ever happens to you because you're a 'main character' and everybody else is just an NPC to the point where those NPC's put you in jail and hold you responsible for your actions. I've seen the term 'affluenza' in relation to this and it very much reminds me of some of the children of wealthy people that I know. They feel that they have deserved their station in life and that there is absolutely nothing wrong with them getting a free pass for whatever transgressions they make because they're the golden children of the future. This results in the weirdest excesses and - invariably - they are proven right over and over again. Daddy will bail them out, buy off the authorities or donate to the school and all is forgiven. Running into the wall at this speed has to be a rude wake-up call.

FabHK 3y ago
> 'affluenza' Nice term. Logan's kids on the TV series "Succession" definitely exhibited that affliction.
- luc4sdreyer 3y ago
  The term became very popular during Ethan Couch's trial, because the judge bought it. > Couch was indicted on four counts of intoxication manslaughter for recklessly driving under the influence. In December 2013, Judge Jean Hudson Boyd sentenced Couch to ten years of probation, subsequently ordering him to undergo therapy at a long term inpatient facility. Before sentencing, Couch's attorneys had argued that Couch had "affluenza" and needed rehabilitation instead of prison, arguing that Couch had no understanding of boundaries as his affluent parents had never given him any. Couch's sentence, judged by many as outrageously lenient, set off what The New York Times called "an emotional, angry debate that has stretched far beyond the North Texas suburbs". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Couch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethan_Couch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affluenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affluenza
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    It's interesting that this pretty much codifies the 'rich people have it easier in court' phenomenon, if 'being rich' is something that you can use in your defense no matter what the crime then that's an end run around justice. The discrepancy when dealing with rich vs poor in court is already tremendous, this acts like a force multiplier. I'd like to see that same judge looking at someone who is poor to give poverty as a defense being equally lenient. But I'm not too optimistic about that happening.
- LatteLazy 3y ago
  30Rock called it "trust fund kids disease".
spacebanana7 3y ago
The stereotypical behavioural problems of new money Hollywood actors and musicians also fits the term 'affluenza'. Easy to imagine how celebrities could be deceived by social dynamics into thinking non-celebrities are NPCs.
jongjong 3y ago
The fall from affluence is like falling into a pit whose bottom keeps breaking and falling out each time after you land. As soon as you've fully absorbed the shock of the previous fall, you start falling again. I can't imagine what it would feel like to fall from such extreme heights to such extreme lows.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  I've seen this happen to two different German guys that I knew. Neither of them managed to put their lives back together afterwards. What also stands out for me about them is that they were complete jerks to others when they were 'riding high' and never for a second considered that the tables might be turned some day. But when that happened the amount of soft revenge they had to deal with was such that one of them removed himself from society completely. Because all of the supplicants when he was wealthy had his number when he wasn't in control of their lives anymore. Both ended up divorced. Your description of the ground beneath breaking up over again and keep falling deeper is very apt. That's exactly how it happened.
  - coldcode 3y ago
    It's also the basis for Bob Dylan's "Like A Rolling Stone".
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      That's a great song about the fall from on high. Dylan is a master poet.
- bmitc 3y ago
  From what I gather, the highs were were quite superficial and manufactured.
  - mysfi 3y ago
    It was still high enough not to sense gravity.
notahacker 3y ago
The other dimension to it is he's spent most of his adult life being praised by Very Serious People for the rationality of his penchant for taking massive gambles and claiming they're just applied utilitarianism[1], why not take a few more... [1]this is the most infamous example https://archive.ph/Yg64e https://archive.ph/Yg64e
- jacquesm 3y ago
  That page does not load for me.
  - notahacker 3y ago
    Not sure why, works fine on both my machines. It's the hagiography removed from Sequoia's website which amongst other things praises him not doing any due diligence on his business deals as understanding the prisoners' dilemma, paints him dropping out of his first job without a plan as ingenious "risk neutrality" rather than what loads of disaffected graduates with a safety net do and sees his decision to play League of Legends through his investment meeting with them as a sign of how awesome he is rather than a warning sign about his priorities and/or executive function...
  - blamazon 3y ago
    It may be DNS, the operator of the archive.today sites intentionally blocks certain DNS providers: https://jarv.is/notes/cloudflare-dns-archive-is-blocked/ https://jarv.is/notes/cloudflare-dns-archive-is-blocked/
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      Ah, ok, interesting, I did not know that.
Ajay-p 3y ago
I think it has grown to more than the children of rich parents. Rejecting responsibility for one's actions appears to be indicative of today's young adults. Their behavior in schools and public suggests they feel entitled, and even a victim of responsibility.
- M2Ys4U 3y ago
  >Rejecting responsibility for one's actions appears to be indicative of today's young adults. Their behavior in schools and public suggests they feel entitled, and even a victim of responsibility. Members of every generation have said this (or similar) about the generations that have come after them.
  - Ajay-p 3y ago
    That is true. Are we seeing a repeat or is this a new level?

drexlspivey 3y ago

Does the amount of time before trial come out of your sentence?

londons_explore 3y ago
Yes, but only if you're actually in prison. It's part of the reason some people don't post bail - if you're pretty sure you're going to end up in prison anyway, you might as well get started early so you can get out sooner.
- hutzlibu 3y ago
  I'll guess it depends how old you are and how much prison time you are facing.
  - LatteLazy 3y ago
    If you in your 20s and looking at >40 years, it looks pretty similar to a life sentence whether you will technically be released or not...
    - glimshe 3y ago
      And arguably you'd rather enjoy your 20s than your 60s out of prison. Health problems of old age are a prison of their own.
      - JohnFen 3y ago
        Having health problems in your 60s is not guaranteed. My experience is that every decade after my 20s have been better than the previous decade. If I had to sacrifice a couple of decades, I'd rather them be my younger ones than my older ones.
        glimshe 3y ago
        I'm happy to hear that, it's just that the opposite is generally true for the vast majority of people as actuarial tables indicate. Nonetheless, I wish you health for many more years!

gizmo 3y ago

The problem with ponzi schemes is that they need to keep growing and growing but nothing can keep growing indefinitely. Most people, even those without any scruples, understand this and avoid ponzi schemes exactly because they inevitably blow up. SBF knowingly went down a road that would land him in prison. His current behavior is self-destructive in exactly the same way. You can't expect SBF to behave rationally because if he was capable of that he would still be living the wealthy crypto life. He wouldn't have started a ponzi scheme in the first place.

mousetree 3y ago
It wasn’t a ponzi. He just took customers’ funds, gave them to Alameda and then gambled them away. To my knowledge there was no ponzi mechanism where older investors were paid from money invested by newer investors.
- gizmo 3y ago
  FTX offered an 8% yield on assets. Where does that yield come from? SBF also famously joked on the odd lots podcast that he was in the ponzi business.
  - plagiarist 3y ago
    I remember looking at those yield percentages and feeling tempted. 6-8% seemed insanely high compared to the fed rate at the time. I passed because it seemed like the best case scenario for my finances is that I would be making some sort of defi loan to a cartel or warlord. It was obviously some form of pyramid scheme based on the rate alone.
  - LatteLazy 3y ago
    Actually 8% is a pretty low yield for a crypto lending service. And very achievable in tradfi. Plus staking/lending was only a tiny part of their business. Ftx was a huge fraud. Just not the flavour you think!
    - 3y ago

lordnacho 3y ago

Reminds me of when you're rolling a D&D character and you have the difference between intelligence and wisdom. For me intelligence is having good models of how the world works. Wisdom is making good decisions.

glimshe 3y ago
After years of D&D, this is the best description I've heard of the difference. Bravo!

mrtksn 3y ago

As He keeps treated with kid gloves, he fails to recognise the seriousness of the situation he's in. A life of privilege does this to people because people in privilege just get all the understanding and benefit of the doubt and when they are nailed, they get a slap on the wrist. It's just how it is, the examples are endless but from a recent popular culture, you can make though experiment about someone of privilege attempting to poison someone at school v.s. someone off privilege doing the same. When the thing is high profile enough and tightly put into the system they will end up getting the legal punishment but the process for them is way way less painful. Cross a border illegally? you sleep on the ground alone, covered with foil blanked for months in a detention center, you final punishment might not be something very high but your process is painful. You defraud people, go after them and, harass them and if you get caught you are surrounded with people sympathetic to you, trying to make sure that you don't have a time of hardship other than you are legally required. The final punishment can be something like living for many years in a highly secure building with no personal schedule and access to the rest of the society but at no point you suffer beyond that. You also get lot's of people around you trying to make sure that you will live in that building as less as possible. IMHO He will not grasp the seriousness of his situation until everything is over and starts feeling some pain when he has some brilliant idea about crypto or something but he is locked up and can't pursue it.

wonderwonder 3y ago

I think its malignant narcissism. If you believe you are smarter than everyone else for long enough you convince yourself you can get away with anything. If you actually manage to get away with things for long enough as SBF did for a long time, your worldview is probably pretty warped by it and you think you are the only one smart enough to solve the situation you find yourself in. This is why people like SBF and Trump ignore the advice of counsel and just keep running their mouths. They cannot help themselves. They cannot stop. If they are smart, wealthy and lucky enough they get away with it to... until they dont.

JohnFen 3y ago
> If you believe you are smarter than everyone else for long enough you convince yourself you can get away with anything. Indeed. That's why there's a rule of thumb that says that the instant you think you're better or smarter than everyone else in the room, you've just become the dumbest person in the room.

JohnFen 3y ago

> Not crazy enough for an insanity defence. Just as a point of interest, in terms of a legal defense in the US, "insanity" isn't what a lot of people think. It's not a medical term, and whether or not you're considered "insane" by the medical community doesn't enter into it. All it means is that the person is unable to discern between right and wrong. That's it. And if you successfully employ the defense (which very rarely succeeds), it doesn't mean you go free. It more likely means that you'll be institutionalized differently.

P_I_Staker 3y ago

Huh? This is perfectly normal court house stuff. Happening currently in your county court. None of this is crazy. You're going to lose for sure, and then there goes your life. Literally anything makes sense to do. Try to seduce the prosecutor. Hypnosis. That one spell from Harry Potter that lets you control people. All better options than doing nothing.

LatteLazy 3y ago
I mean, fleeing the country would make perfect sense to me. Publishing your ex-girlfriends diary to try and get her not to testify, after already randomly breaking other bail conditions to no gain just seems dumb. Why would he be trying anything except (a) staying on bail and (b) arranging to disappear to a non extradition country?
- P_I_Staker 3y ago
  Yes, criminals are often very dumb. Do you think SBF is smart? This seems kinda dumb. He thought it was a good idea to steal a bunch of peoples money, while lying and pretending to help people, with his batshit ideology. Now his life is fucked. If he gets his due, he's gonna be doing 10-40+ years. I think there's a real chance he won't get the book at him (eg Jeff Skilling, don't know if I spelled his name right, don't care). It's not really worth it. Plus, everyone knows what a POS you are, which undermines your whole goal of making the world think you're an angel. Anyway it's actually not a "smart person / dumb person" thing. You can be plenty smart, and you will probably still do some headscratching things in these situations. People reliably do. Lawyers do. I'm also still just shocked that you seem to assume good decision making from the man, considering his history.