3 ms·

I think you’ll find the real transition to be a lot quicker than that. All it takes is one of the big companies drawing a line in the sand because they’re unabl

I think you’ll find the real transition to be a lot quicker than that. All it takes is one of the big companies drawing a line in the sand because they’re unable to buy enough IP addresses, so they finally take a stand. Just like when YouTube nailed the lid into the coffin of ie6.

kalleboo 3y ago
I doubt a big company would draw the line in the sand. But I could see an upstart (think TikTok) not having up enough IP addresses and just giving a crappy, slow proxied experience over IPv4, but having it be native, zippy and good over IPv6. Suddenly you have teens begging their parents to switch ISPs.
- nikanj 3y ago
  That comes with a major assumption that switching ISPs is an option. Most people get to choose between their cable company, or a fleet of ill-trained pigeons
  - voyagerfan5761 3y ago
    As an example, the options where I am right now (thankfully temporary) are: - $55/mo. 3 Mbps DSL - $80/mo. 300 Mbps cable (or even more expensive, faster cable) - $120/mo. 100+ Mbps (if you're lucky) Starlink - A few other heavily restricted, very expensive satellite options (e.g. HughesNet), to which the aforementioned fleet of ill-trained carrier pigeons might be preferable Only one of those is practical and (mostly) reliable for anything remotely approaching something like remote work. Back home it's such a luxury to be able to choose DSL, cable, or fiber. I can only dream that all markets will have an actual choice between Internet service providers someday.
    - patmorgan23 3y ago
      Did you look at doing 5g home Internet? There's great coverage in lots of areas.
      - nikanj 3y ago
        At least in Canada 5g comes with $50-for-15GB levels of data cap pricing
  - patmorgan23 3y ago
    Actually most people (in the US) get a choice between the cable company, the LEC, and a 5g carrier, and maybe even StarLink.
    - JohnFen 3y ago
      I have a choice between the cable company and sorta Starlink (Starlink isn't actually available in my area yet, and is a nonstarter anyway). There are no other options available to me.
    - WorldMaker 3y ago
      Many of the "choices" are false choices. My home, in the downtown of a major city, shows as having two choices for wired broadband, but the phone company's wired broadband option is an old ISDN network grandfathered in to "broadband" that probably shouldn't have been, it is the very bare minimum of "broadband" in 1990s standards. (And the phone company charges the same monthly cost for it as actual high speed broadband options they provide, just to add additional cruelty.)
- patmorgan23 3y ago
  I think you'll be surprised. As soon as most large and medium businesses support IPv6 we'll start to see people dropping v4, likely within the next 5-10 years. When only a tiny % of your potential customer base is dependent on v4 you start to weight the cost of staying dual stack or just going pure v6
Dagger2 3y ago
> Just like when YouTube nailed the lid into the coffin of ie6. That was the work of a few people on the YouTube team, not the company itself taking a stand: https://blog.chriszacharias.com/a-conspiracy-to-kill-ie6 https://blog.chriszacharias.com/a-conspiracy-to-kill-ie6

kalleboo 3y ago

I doubt a big company would draw the line in the sand. But I could see an upstart (think TikTok) not having up enough IP addresses and just giving a crappy, slow proxied experience over IPv4, but having it be native, zippy and good over IPv6. Suddenly you have teens begging their parents to switch ISPs.

nikanj 3y ago
That comes with a major assumption that switching ISPs is an option. Most people get to choose between their cable company, or a fleet of ill-trained pigeons
- voyagerfan5761 3y ago
  As an example, the options where I am right now (thankfully temporary) are: - $55/mo. 3 Mbps DSL - $80/mo. 300 Mbps cable (or even more expensive, faster cable) - $120/mo. 100+ Mbps (if you're lucky) Starlink - A few other heavily restricted, very expensive satellite options (e.g. HughesNet), to which the aforementioned fleet of ill-trained carrier pigeons might be preferable Only one of those is practical and (mostly) reliable for anything remotely approaching something like remote work. Back home it's such a luxury to be able to choose DSL, cable, or fiber. I can only dream that all markets will have an actual choice between Internet service providers someday.
  - patmorgan23 3y ago
    Did you look at doing 5g home Internet? There's great coverage in lots of areas.
    - nikanj 3y ago
      At least in Canada 5g comes with $50-for-15GB levels of data cap pricing
- patmorgan23 3y ago
  Actually most people (in the US) get a choice between the cable company, the LEC, and a 5g carrier, and maybe even StarLink.
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    I have a choice between the cable company and sorta Starlink (Starlink isn't actually available in my area yet, and is a nonstarter anyway). There are no other options available to me.
  - WorldMaker 3y ago
    Many of the "choices" are false choices. My home, in the downtown of a major city, shows as having two choices for wired broadband, but the phone company's wired broadband option is an old ISDN network grandfathered in to "broadband" that probably shouldn't have been, it is the very bare minimum of "broadband" in 1990s standards. (And the phone company charges the same monthly cost for it as actual high speed broadband options they provide, just to add additional cruelty.)
patmorgan23 3y ago
I think you'll be surprised. As soon as most large and medium businesses support IPv6 we'll start to see people dropping v4, likely within the next 5-10 years. When only a tiny % of your potential customer base is dependent on v4 you start to weight the cost of staying dual stack or just going pure v6

Dagger2 3y ago

> Just like when YouTube nailed the lid into the coffin of ie6. That was the work of a few people on the YouTube team, not the company itself taking a stand: https://blog.chriszacharias.com/a-conspiracy-to-kill-ie6 https://blog.chriszacharias.com/a-conspiracy-to-kill-ie6