3 ms·
> Wait wait what's wrong about stock market? Just by virtue of being a stock market, it's not guaranteed to always keep going up (e.g. look at other stock mark
by maest 3y ago
> Wait wait what's wrong about stock market?
Just by virtue of being a stock market, it's not guaranteed to always keep going up (e.g. look at other stock markets like, let's say, Japan).
In fact, the US stock market has been largely unique in the amount of long term growth it's seen.
This means that the default advice of "put your money in the stock market because, long term, it will go up" is wrong. It is wrong in the sense that _even if_ the bet is positive EV, the reason for the advice is wrong.
Instead, you'd have to argue about why the US market is special, what mechanism has allowed it to go up, and why that mechanism will persist in the future.
The same is largely true for housing btw.
- anovikov 3y agoWell, claiming that is claiming that the entire idea of "private property" is bullshit, but it refutes the very foundation of our civilisation. Because stock market is a mechanism for facilitation "private property" in the purest sense - "ownership without physical control". Remove it, and you can only make money off what you can physically hold and defend, and that would be a scary world. Capital always generates return. If it doesn't it just moves to the other place where it does. If there is no stock market, there is no way to freely move that money and it means that private property is no more, and owning capital is more of a job of "being able to milk something for profit", rather than a passive income source. That means we no longer have capitalism. Do you claim the world is really a place like that? Or, do you claim that there are other mechanisms for that but the stock market. Which?
- maest 3y agoJapan has private property, but the Japanese stock market has been going sideways for years.