3 ms·
By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party ada
by cs702 3y ago
By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad.
My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away from authoritarianism, leading to the country's gradual transition into a modern democracy -- to the detriment of party apparatchiks and their psychophants, whose power and importance depends on maintaining the status quo.
My biggest fear is that party apparatchiks start pushing for policies that can lead only to armed conflict in the hopes of holding on to their power and status -- e.g., they might push for annexing Taiwan by force in the short run, ensuring a confrontation with the West. Few things impede political change as well as armed conflict.
---
[a] See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 for background.
- jamesaurichs 3y agoWith numbers like 1.) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 2.) 95% decrease in FDI https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-the-west-snubs-china/ https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-th... 3.) double digit plunge in import and export in July https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-plunge-in-july-exports-and-imports-missing-expectations.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p... 4.) negative CPI I would call it what it is: China is in a great depression
- unstatusthequo 3y agoAnd assume any number they provide to the “outside” is also exaggerated in their favor. So I assume any number provided is at least, a best case figure, or total invention.
- nradov 3y agoRegardless of the political and economic issues, the CCP leadership is well aware that they still lack the amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan's main island. It will take a few more years at least to build that capacity. In the mean time if they choose to make a push it will likely be toward some of the smaller islands closer to the mainland.
- christkv 3y agoAny move towards the smaller island will most likely trigger an American buildup of forces on Taiwan itself.
- proxiful-wash 3y agoI mean this would be good for the whole planet, if only we got stop the 10 cent army today instead of 40 years from now when they have poisoned discourse for the whole planet.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- white_dragon88 3y agoSycophants
- cs702 3y agoThanks! Actually, it looks like both spellings are acceptable, but "sycophant" is more common. Maybe using the less common spelling was a Freudian slip on my part...?