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You should be suspicious of anyone outlining their strategy for success. Because if I was lucky enough to stumble upon some great hack to make lots of money, w

You should be suspicious of anyone outlining their strategy for success. Because if I was lucky enough to stumble upon some great hack to make lots of money, why would I be telling people about it? Either I get competition, or I might get whatever loophole I was abusing closed. So either I'm lying, or what I'm saying isn't possible to reproduce, or the usefulness of the technique ran out and now I'm just trying to squeeze a few more dollars by telling the tale, or I'm actually stupid and about to see my business model crash and burn.

edgineer 3y ago
"Success" could include a type of "business model" but other positive-sum games, too.
TedDoesntTalk 3y ago
Exception: you’ve exited and have nothing to lose by sharing
- kurthr 3y ago
  Beware the, "I'm already a bitcoin billionaire so I'll share my secret to success". Either they're lying about the Lambos, or they suddenly got less greedy. One of those is more likely.
  - throwaway290 3y ago
    Unless they charge for the advice in which case it would be obvious, maybe they just know that keeping more people buying it is required for it to keep value
  - a1369209993 3y ago
    Or their actual secret to success is "Buy a bunch of bitcoin when it cost less than a dollar.", and any subsequent success is a artifact of that non-replicable starting point.
  - ilyt 3y ago
    Or, in rare cases where someone gets to billion dollars and says "okay it is enough": The opportunity is no longer there and world changed enough for advice to be near-useless.
- lapcat 3y ago
  > have nothing to lose by sharing Not necessarily true if "every successful business got there by doing something ugly".
Ozzie_osman 3y ago
Or the boost to my ego of being admired for being so smart is larger than the boost to my ego of being even richer.
kurthr 3y ago
In general this is true of influencer type garbage and "get rich" stuff. It's junk food for the fearful/hopeful/greedy mind. However, there are entire industries that don't exist without a growing capable workforce. It's not like software programming would have been much higher paid, if we could have just kept it a secret longer. You need a certain number of skilled people to fill out all the positions and get large projects done. It's not like it's easy, or doesn't require training, but since it produces value everyone can win, because of the productivity of others. Another example of this right now is building/contracting work. It's a skill that takes time to develop and you can't just do it from watching a video or reading a book, but it pays well. Right now a lot of older folks got out of the game so there's real demand and wages are high. If that demand doesn't get filled... it will be replaced with more automation. It's a case where, if there aren't enough workers economics will adjust to require fewer workers, perhaps dramatically so.
- kabalunga 3y ago
  > It's a case where, if there aren't enough workers economics will adjust to require fewer workers, perhaps dramatically so. Isn't that desirable? That machines do jobs that they can actually do, then humans can do fun things in life?
chrchang523 3y ago
The possibilities you mention are definitely worth keeping in mind. However, they are not an exhaustive list; there are positive scenarios that are better than "trying to squeeze a few more dollars by telling the tale". The hard part is recognizing them in the midst of a lot of chaff.
Karellen 3y ago
> if I was lucky enough to stumble upon some great hack to make lots of money, why would I be telling people about it? Because you understand that the number in your bank account isn't the score of some weird game. Having more money than other people doesn't make you a better person. If you have enough money to reach your goals - pay your rent, buy food, indulge your hobbies - that's good. If 20 other people also have enough money to reach their goals, that's a world with more happiness in it. That's a better world. So why not tell other people how to make money in the same way you did, and help bring that world about?
- the_snooze 3y ago
  >So why not tell other people how to make money in the same way you did, and help bring that world about? I think this does happen quite frequently. It's just that the knowledge gets passed through networks, so the most successful people help those who are socially near them (and probably not too different in terms of success and comfort). This is the whole "insider knowledge" that the article alludes to.
  - Consultant32452 3y ago
    This comment is in no way an endorsement of Scott Adams, I generally do not like him. However, he recently posted something on Twitter that has been a brain worm for me. >"Success is mostly imitation. We study successful people and then try to imitate what worked." >"Imagine being Black, learning the history of slavery and racism, and being asked to imitate your oppressors to succeed." And a followup tweet: >"The most damaging reframe in American history is that using the universal tools for success is “acting white.” Solve that problem and we’ll have better visibility on the systemic racism that is primarily caused by the teachers unions."
    - jdpigeon 3y ago
      The last tweet is a little confusing. Teacher's unions? Really?
      - 3y ago
lordnacho 3y ago
Reminds me of the constant hum around Renaissance Technologies. Everybody brings up that rumour about them using satellite data and other exotic stuff, but there's no way that is the difference between winning and losing.
gnicholas 3y ago
I'm not sure I'd go this far. Think of the advice that PG gives, which is along the lines of: make something people want, get it in front of those people, and work very hard. This is very useful advice to someone who has never heard it (though the last one is very obvious), and it doesn't really take away anything from PG to say it loudly. He is especially unlikely to care if people use his advice to get rich, since he is himself already very very rich. But even someone who was not rich wouldn't really care unless there is a good likelihood that he is giving his competitors a leg up by sharing this advice. And for someone like PG, there's a net benefit to giving this advice because (1) it will lead to more people who are willing to work hard becoming successful (which will lead to useful products/services being available in the world — including to PG), and it helps to build PG's brand. The thing you do have to worry about is when there's a potential conflict between (1) what they did to become successful and (2) what they want people to think they did to become successful. That's what this article is about. People want you to think they got ripped by lifting a ton — not by using steroids.
somsak2 3y ago
What a cynical take. For your own sake, I'd recommend looking for more positives in others.
tomcam 3y ago
Well I did it when I had a very successful SAAS 20 years ago that still exists. I ended up with multiple competitors who stole my business model completely, right down to the micro payment system I devised. I had a fantastic run, became friends with several of my competitors, and eventually sold my business to one of those competitors. I never hid anything about how the business was run. I just delivered on the fundamentals and wasn’t greedy. I never sold a course or a book or charged for any advice. The funny thing is, although I mentor people for free they often don’t call after the initial conversation because they think I’m somehow trying to get money out of it. So I guess you’re right?
blobbers 3y ago
Loose lips sink ships, right? Yeah, this is why hedge funds keep secrets, and sell side analysis isn't very trustworthy in the investment world. If their info was so good, they would act on it instead of publishing it.* * some people act on it, then publish it in order to push prices in their favor.
- Scene_Cast2 3y ago
  This is exactly why I don't understand the strategy behind sites like https://www.quiverquant.com/ https://www.quiverquant.com/ My optimistic theory is that it might be a form of social activism to enact change, as opposed to a plain carrot problem.
  - blobbers 3y ago
    No, they have a premium paid subscription. They're doing it to make money.
- winwang 3y ago
  It's even worse in the case of hedge funds (well, arbitrage in general), because any given strategy has a maximum amount of profit it could make before the market loses that specific inefficiency. Or at least, that's the theory. It's basically like finding a gold mine and telling everyone to come over and take what they want from it.
habitue 3y ago
> Because if I was lucky enough to stumble upon some great hack to make lots of money, why would I be telling people about it? People like explaining things to other people. They like sharing knowledge, they like having other people pay attention to and listen to the knowledge they share. I am pretty convinced that it's an evolutionary adaptation that we feel a compulsion to explain and share interesting things we've learned. Your logic probably overcomes this built-in tendency for sharing things when the alpha is very directly tied to one's success. So, for example, a hedge fund manager isn't sharing their trading strategies. But if an executive is explaining how OKRs worked for them, or an engineer is saying typescript was a big help, our first instinct shouldn't be to assume it's a psyop. Those things are not the singular competitive advantage of a company, success is usually the aggregate result of many different things.
nuancebydefault 3y ago
Another reason that they disclose strategies might be that it makes them feel good about themselves. -- Whoah you have such I pretty girlfriend! How did you accomplish this? -- Well i went to those and those places, worked out at the gym and behaved like a cool guy in this and that way. (he feels good talking about it) Even if it is true, who says it would work for someone else, maybe the real reason for success in this case is just being pretty or rich. The problem is not so much carrot stories, the root of the carrot problem is that some people look up to other people's accomplishments and want it too. It is easy then to see/follow/come up with patterns that have nothing to do with it.
ilyt 3y ago
I think that's only when you actually cheated/lied/used loopholes to get where you are. I'm not losing my senior engineer job because I tell some soon-to-be junior engineers how to be good at the job. Neither will say an established artist or maker; they already have their brand.
Cpoll 3y ago
By that token, we should be suspicious of you for telling us how to avoid bad strategies for making money :)
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  Indeed, we should. Yet the best way to maintain a successful strategy (which isn't widely known) is to keep it quiet. So either the secret got out and they're trying to hold back the flood by claiming it doesn't work, or honestly have been burned and are hoping to gain some reputational advantage by warning others.
joshspankit 3y ago
Some do this to diversify. Not only are they getting the income from the single trick, but now they are getting it from courses, ad revenue, consultancy, and whatever else they can use the leverage on. IMO that’s a smarter play than having zero income if the trick runs it’s course.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  If you're a billionaire, it's hard to imagine a book about you making a difference in your fortune. It's also a waste of time for a billionaire to be a consultant. There's no leverage.
  - joshspankit 3y ago
    Billionaires are basically a different species. I don’t think anything about them can be used to judge whether a thing is true for everyone else.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
samstave 3y ago
Also, everyone who I have worked with which outlined their success path were never anyone to be trusted as their path will never be 100% yours, and thus, they will always pick theirs over supporting yours... especially if they work in sales, HR, product, BOFH :-)

edgineer 3y ago

"Success" could include a type of "business model" but other positive-sum games, too.

TedDoesntTalk 3y ago

Exception: you’ve exited and have nothing to lose by sharing

kurthr 3y ago
Beware the, "I'm already a bitcoin billionaire so I'll share my secret to success". Either they're lying about the Lambos, or they suddenly got less greedy. One of those is more likely.
- throwaway290 3y ago
  Unless they charge for the advice in which case it would be obvious, maybe they just know that keeping more people buying it is required for it to keep value
- a1369209993 3y ago
  Or their actual secret to success is "Buy a bunch of bitcoin when it cost less than a dollar.", and any subsequent success is a artifact of that non-replicable starting point.
- ilyt 3y ago
  Or, in rare cases where someone gets to billion dollars and says "okay it is enough": The opportunity is no longer there and world changed enough for advice to be near-useless.
lapcat 3y ago
> have nothing to lose by sharing Not necessarily true if "every successful business got there by doing something ugly".

Ozzie_osman 3y ago

Or the boost to my ego of being admired for being so smart is larger than the boost to my ego of being even richer.

kurthr 3y ago

In general this is true of influencer type garbage and "get rich" stuff. It's junk food for the fearful/hopeful/greedy mind. However, there are entire industries that don't exist without a growing capable workforce. It's not like software programming would have been much higher paid, if we could have just kept it a secret longer. You need a certain number of skilled people to fill out all the positions and get large projects done. It's not like it's easy, or doesn't require training, but since it produces value everyone can win, because of the productivity of others. Another example of this right now is building/contracting work. It's a skill that takes time to develop and you can't just do it from watching a video or reading a book, but it pays well. Right now a lot of older folks got out of the game so there's real demand and wages are high. If that demand doesn't get filled... it will be replaced with more automation. It's a case where, if there aren't enough workers economics will adjust to require fewer workers, perhaps dramatically so.

kabalunga 3y ago
> It's a case where, if there aren't enough workers economics will adjust to require fewer workers, perhaps dramatically so. Isn't that desirable? That machines do jobs that they can actually do, then humans can do fun things in life?

chrchang523 3y ago

The possibilities you mention are definitely worth keeping in mind. However, they are not an exhaustive list; there are positive scenarios that are better than "trying to squeeze a few more dollars by telling the tale". The hard part is recognizing them in the midst of a lot of chaff.

Karellen 3y ago

> if I was lucky enough to stumble upon some great hack to make lots of money, why would I be telling people about it? Because you understand that the number in your bank account isn't the score of some weird game. Having more money than other people doesn't make you a better person. If you have enough money to reach your goals - pay your rent, buy food, indulge your hobbies - that's good. If 20 other people also have enough money to reach their goals, that's a world with more happiness in it. That's a better world. So why not tell other people how to make money in the same way you did, and help bring that world about?

the_snooze 3y ago
>So why not tell other people how to make money in the same way you did, and help bring that world about? I think this does happen quite frequently. It's just that the knowledge gets passed through networks, so the most successful people help those who are socially near them (and probably not too different in terms of success and comfort). This is the whole "insider knowledge" that the article alludes to.
- Consultant32452 3y ago
  This comment is in no way an endorsement of Scott Adams, I generally do not like him. However, he recently posted something on Twitter that has been a brain worm for me. >"Success is mostly imitation. We study successful people and then try to imitate what worked." >"Imagine being Black, learning the history of slavery and racism, and being asked to imitate your oppressors to succeed." And a followup tweet: >"The most damaging reframe in American history is that using the universal tools for success is “acting white.” Solve that problem and we’ll have better visibility on the systemic racism that is primarily caused by the teachers unions."
  - jdpigeon 3y ago
    The last tweet is a little confusing. Teacher's unions? Really?
    - 3y ago

lordnacho 3y ago

Reminds me of the constant hum around Renaissance Technologies. Everybody brings up that rumour about them using satellite data and other exotic stuff, but there's no way that is the difference between winning and losing.

gnicholas 3y ago

I'm not sure I'd go this far. Think of the advice that PG gives, which is along the lines of: make something people want, get it in front of those people, and work very hard. This is very useful advice to someone who has never heard it (though the last one is very obvious), and it doesn't really take away anything from PG to say it loudly. He is especially unlikely to care if people use his advice to get rich, since he is himself already very very rich. But even someone who was not rich wouldn't really care unless there is a good likelihood that he is giving his competitors a leg up by sharing this advice. And for someone like PG, there's a net benefit to giving this advice because (1) it will lead to more people who are willing to work hard becoming successful (which will lead to useful products/services being available in the world — including to PG), and it helps to build PG's brand. The thing you do have to worry about is when there's a potential conflict between (1) what they did to become successful and (2) what they want people to think they did to become successful. That's what this article is about. People want you to think they got ripped by lifting a ton — not by using steroids.

somsak2 3y ago

What a cynical take. For your own sake, I'd recommend looking for more positives in others.

tomcam 3y ago

Well I did it when I had a very successful SAAS 20 years ago that still exists. I ended up with multiple competitors who stole my business model completely, right down to the micro payment system I devised. I had a fantastic run, became friends with several of my competitors, and eventually sold my business to one of those competitors. I never hid anything about how the business was run. I just delivered on the fundamentals and wasn’t greedy. I never sold a course or a book or charged for any advice. The funny thing is, although I mentor people for free they often don’t call after the initial conversation because they think I’m somehow trying to get money out of it. So I guess you’re right?

blobbers 3y ago

Loose lips sink ships, right? Yeah, this is why hedge funds keep secrets, and sell side analysis isn't very trustworthy in the investment world. If their info was so good, they would act on it instead of publishing it.* * some people act on it, then publish it in order to push prices in their favor.

Scene_Cast2 3y ago
This is exactly why I don't understand the strategy behind sites like https://www.quiverquant.com/ https://www.quiverquant.com/ My optimistic theory is that it might be a form of social activism to enact change, as opposed to a plain carrot problem.
- blobbers 3y ago
  No, they have a premium paid subscription. They're doing it to make money.
winwang 3y ago
It's even worse in the case of hedge funds (well, arbitrage in general), because any given strategy has a maximum amount of profit it could make before the market loses that specific inefficiency. Or at least, that's the theory. It's basically like finding a gold mine and telling everyone to come over and take what they want from it.

habitue 3y ago

> Because if I was lucky enough to stumble upon some great hack to make lots of money, why would I be telling people about it? People like explaining things to other people. They like sharing knowledge, they like having other people pay attention to and listen to the knowledge they share. I am pretty convinced that it's an evolutionary adaptation that we feel a compulsion to explain and share interesting things we've learned. Your logic probably overcomes this built-in tendency for sharing things when the alpha is very directly tied to one's success. So, for example, a hedge fund manager isn't sharing their trading strategies. But if an executive is explaining how OKRs worked for them, or an engineer is saying typescript was a big help, our first instinct shouldn't be to assume it's a psyop. Those things are not the singular competitive advantage of a company, success is usually the aggregate result of many different things.

nuancebydefault 3y ago

Another reason that they disclose strategies might be that it makes them feel good about themselves. -- Whoah you have such I pretty girlfriend! How did you accomplish this? -- Well i went to those and those places, worked out at the gym and behaved like a cool guy in this and that way. (he feels good talking about it) Even if it is true, who says it would work for someone else, maybe the real reason for success in this case is just being pretty or rich. The problem is not so much carrot stories, the root of the carrot problem is that some people look up to other people's accomplishments and want it too. It is easy then to see/follow/come up with patterns that have nothing to do with it.

ilyt 3y ago

I think that's only when you actually cheated/lied/used loopholes to get where you are. I'm not losing my senior engineer job because I tell some soon-to-be junior engineers how to be good at the job. Neither will say an established artist or maker; they already have their brand.

Cpoll 3y ago

By that token, we should be suspicious of you for telling us how to avoid bad strategies for making money :)

paulryanrogers 3y ago
Indeed, we should. Yet the best way to maintain a successful strategy (which isn't widely known) is to keep it quiet. So either the secret got out and they're trying to hold back the flood by claiming it doesn't work, or honestly have been burned and are hoping to gain some reputational advantage by warning others.

joshspankit 3y ago

Some do this to diversify. Not only are they getting the income from the single trick, but now they are getting it from courses, ad revenue, consultancy, and whatever else they can use the leverage on. IMO that’s a smarter play than having zero income if the trick runs it’s course.

WalterBright 3y ago
If you're a billionaire, it's hard to imagine a book about you making a difference in your fortune. It's also a waste of time for a billionaire to be a consultant. There's no leverage.
- joshspankit 3y ago
  Billionaires are basically a different species. I don’t think anything about them can be used to judge whether a thing is true for everyone else.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

samstave 3y ago

Also, everyone who I have worked with which outlined their success path were never anyone to be trusted as their path will never be 100% yours, and thus, they will always pick theirs over supporting yours... especially if they work in sales, HR, product, BOFH :-)