4 ms·

This is essentially written by bitter ex or current employees. Professors often approach public debate by assuming everyone else is braindead, rather than puzz

This is essentially written by bitter ex or current employees. Professors often approach public debate by assuming everyone else is braindead, rather than puzzling through conflicting information. For example, they immediately dismiss the president's claim that a demographic change contributes to this issue as "false" because the US birth rate may have been very stable. But that says nothing about parents in the WVU area, which we know are either older or moved to other states.

Ar-Curunir 3y ago
Enrolment at WVU hasn’t changed, even though WV population has been declining since 1950
- commonlisp94 3y ago
  > Gee says that due to the demographic cliff they’re expecting 20% fewer students ‘over the next period of time’, > Alsop says that revenues will decrease over the next 4-5 years ‘given the demographic cliff’.
refulgentis 3y ago
I lived in a small Rust Belt city, dropped out of college, waited tables, built a restaurant management app, sold it, by the grace of God made it to a FAANG. Everything I've learned and surprised me over 7 years there fits into exactly what you said, "[smart cloistered people without exposure to costs] often approach debate by assuming everyone else is braindead, rather than puzzling through conflicting information" It costs so, so, much, especially when you throw in the rush everyone is in.
muglug 3y ago
> This is essentially written by bitter ex or current employees. I imagine if you worked at a place for over a decade, then saw it being run into the ground at speed by people earning 5-10x your salary, some bitterness may emerge.
miek 3y ago
The bitterness of current and former employees, alums, and many people around the state, does not detract from several excellent points made by the piece. To read it and wholly dismiss it is questionnable (especially with a birthrate comment). Birthrate in the "WVU area" should be considered, but consider a couple datapoints: Total enrollment overall increased [0] year over year for both 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, and over half of WVU students come from outside WV [1] [0] To see the increased enrollment, you need to get the '21-'22 enrollment from this site: https://www.thedaonline.com/news/wvu-continues-to-experience-declining-enrollment-despite-increase-in-retention/article_1f458cd8-f953-11ec-b526-cbf88bb92e20.html https://www.thedaonline.com/news/wvu-continues-to-experience... and the '22-'23 enrollment here: https://www.wvu.edu/faq/how-many-students-are-enrolled https://www.wvu.edu/faq/how-many-students-are-enrolled This year's enrollment was published (news claimed increase); traveling and didn't immediately find the source. [1] https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/west-virginia-university/student-life/diversity/chart-geographic-breakdown.html https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/west-virginia-univer...
- refulgentis 3y ago
  I'm interested for your thoughts on the excellent points. Exaggerating for conciseness: I put in a good 20 minutes. Got left with a dizzied feeling of a gish gallop or perhaps motte and bailey, repeated. The only helpful part was the end, where they clearly implicate one person and identify the problem as pushing for growth in 2014, failing to recognize it had failed and pivot after realizing shrinking was actually the trend line. None of this required any of the rest. The rest seemed to fall into: 1. Leadership should have looked at $SMALL_SET_OF_COMPARABLE_INSTANCES projections to identify their projections must be wrong. 2. $SMALL_SET_OF_COMPARABLE_INSTANCES had a smaller shortfall[2]. 3. Confusing long segments recounting slight differences in statements made multiple months apart. [3] [2] Ended up closing it once it felt like #2 had several repetitions in a row, it doesn't matter if there's a smaller shortfall somewhere else, shortfalls add up to a shortfall. [3] for example, lengthy recountings of Official $X said 2025 is where the real trouble is, but they also said next 5 years are important, and birth data shows 2006 was the start of a new era of lows, and 2006 + 18 = 2024.
- etempleton 3y ago
etempleton 3y ago
The enrollment cliff is well documented and real and does not impact all universities equally. A college that has a very high acceptance rate, such as WVU will likely feel the impact of the enrollment cliff more than others. Initial enrollment is also not the same as enrollment at census. Colleges experience some level of "melt" which is the number of students who end up not showing up or otherwise leaving in the first couple months of their first year. Again, I would imagine that WVU with their high acceptance rate would experience outsized melt compared to their peers.

Ar-Curunir 3y ago

Enrolment at WVU hasn’t changed, even though WV population has been declining since 1950

commonlisp94 3y ago
> Gee says that due to the demographic cliff they’re expecting 20% fewer students ‘over the next period of time’, > Alsop says that revenues will decrease over the next 4-5 years ‘given the demographic cliff’.

refulgentis 3y ago

I lived in a small Rust Belt city, dropped out of college, waited tables, built a restaurant management app, sold it, by the grace of God made it to a FAANG. Everything I've learned and surprised me over 7 years there fits into exactly what you said, "[smart cloistered people without exposure to costs] often approach debate by assuming everyone else is braindead, rather than puzzling through conflicting information" It costs so, so, much, especially when you throw in the rush everyone is in.

muglug 3y ago

> This is essentially written by bitter ex or current employees. I imagine if you worked at a place for over a decade, then saw it being run into the ground at speed by people earning 5-10x your salary, some bitterness may emerge.

miek 3y ago

The bitterness of current and former employees, alums, and many people around the state, does not detract from several excellent points made by the piece. To read it and wholly dismiss it is questionnable (especially with a birthrate comment). Birthrate in the "WVU area" should be considered, but consider a couple datapoints: Total enrollment overall increased [0] year over year for both 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, and over half of WVU students come from outside WV [1] [0] To see the increased enrollment, you need to get the '21-'22 enrollment from this site: https://www.thedaonline.com/news/wvu-continues-to-experience-declining-enrollment-despite-increase-in-retention/article_1f458cd8-f953-11ec-b526-cbf88bb92e20.html https://www.thedaonline.com/news/wvu-continues-to-experience... and the '22-'23 enrollment here: https://www.wvu.edu/faq/how-many-students-are-enrolled https://www.wvu.edu/faq/how-many-students-are-enrolled This year's enrollment was published (news claimed increase); traveling and didn't immediately find the source. [1] https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/west-virginia-university/student-life/diversity/chart-geographic-breakdown.html https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/west-virginia-univer...

refulgentis 3y ago
I'm interested for your thoughts on the excellent points. Exaggerating for conciseness: I put in a good 20 minutes. Got left with a dizzied feeling of a gish gallop or perhaps motte and bailey, repeated. The only helpful part was the end, where they clearly implicate one person and identify the problem as pushing for growth in 2014, failing to recognize it had failed and pivot after realizing shrinking was actually the trend line. None of this required any of the rest. The rest seemed to fall into: 1. Leadership should have looked at $SMALL_SET_OF_COMPARABLE_INSTANCES projections to identify their projections must be wrong. 2. $SMALL_SET_OF_COMPARABLE_INSTANCES had a smaller shortfall[2]. 3. Confusing long segments recounting slight differences in statements made multiple months apart. [3] [2] Ended up closing it once it felt like #2 had several repetitions in a row, it doesn't matter if there's a smaller shortfall somewhere else, shortfalls add up to a shortfall. [3] for example, lengthy recountings of Official $X said 2025 is where the real trouble is, but they also said next 5 years are important, and birth data shows 2006 was the start of a new era of lows, and 2006 + 18 = 2024.
etempleton 3y ago

etempleton 3y ago

The enrollment cliff is well documented and real and does not impact all universities equally. A college that has a very high acceptance rate, such as WVU will likely feel the impact of the enrollment cliff more than others. Initial enrollment is also not the same as enrollment at census. Colleges experience some level of "melt" which is the number of students who end up not showing up or otherwise leaving in the first couple months of their first year. Again, I would imagine that WVU with their high acceptance rate would experience outsized melt compared to their peers.