13 ms·

Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

75 points by arizonaforce 3y ago

arizonaforce 3y ago
Wave of bankruptcies threaten global markets.
jqpabc123 3y ago
Make business, not war. Not my advice but the advice of Jack Ma. You know, the guy the CCP effectively stripped of most of his influence for warning them about problems with China's banking and regulatory system.
- chaostheory 3y ago
  The problem is that Xi hijacked the CCP. He’s now on his way to transitioning China back to socialism and a centrally planned economy.
  - jqpabc123 3y ago
    Did Xi hijack the CCP --- or did the CCP try to hijack capitalism and Xi is just their frontman?
    - SllX 3y ago
      Prior to the most recent National Congress of the CCP, the General Secretary of the CCP and Paramount Leader of the PRC would only serve two terms of 5 years. Xi Jinping is now in his third term. He also made a show of having his immediate predecessor dragged out of the proceedings without explanation, and so Hu Jintao was unable to cast any votes. When the voting was all said and done, Xi Jinping was retained for a third term as Chairman Winnie the Pooh; and Li Zhanusa who appeared visibly upset and attempted to help Hu Jintao until being pulled back by Wang Huning and Li Keqiang of the Hu faction were not retained for the 20th Central Committee. In order to show Hu Jintao was not disappeared, he was later appointed to oversee the funeral proceedings of his own immediate predecessor, Jiang Zemin, over 35 other people who were ahead of him on a list of people to oversee the proceedings. So you tell us, did Chairman Winnie the Pooh here hijack the CCP or is he just their frontman?
      - nonrepeating 3y ago
        That's an interesting question. The Economist attempted to answer it with their series "The Prince" (https://www.economist.com/theprincepod https://www.economist.com/theprincepod), and I believe their conclusion is that Xi has indeed consolidated power around himself and is nearly an autocrat at this point. Two provisos on this, however: - The author, Sue-Lin Wong, is something of an outsider, and outsider reporting on China typically misses some subtleties of the real situation in the country. - Given the nature of China, there will never be a fully autocratic leader there, though it may appear that way to some, and the would-be autocrat might be deluded into thinking they are.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - chaostheory 3y ago
      That was their hope that Xi would be an easily controlled puppet. If that was the case, it would still be business as usual without the giant messes of Wolf Warrior diplomacy, the ending of one China two systems policy, and the kidnappings of Jack Ma and other capitalist elites which has led to decoupling and a mass exodus of said elites and as many assets as they can take. Xi is not their front man. Xi is now their ruler who wants to regress China back to Mao’s system. The CCP also adopted capitalism. I don't see how they hijacked it.
  - qzw 3y ago
    “Socialism” but without any of the social safety nets, from what I hear. Lots of retirees getting their pensions reduced, their personal savings in the form of real estate (~75% of household wealth) sinking in value, can’t even see a doctor without waiting for months (unless paying high fees out of pocket), high debt loads both public and private, deflationary pressures, and oh, the whole population shrinkage thing in the long run. Daunting challenges even for a fearless leader that knows what he’s doing, not to mention the one they’ve got.
    - yycc9866tfbvxd 3y ago
      [dead]
    - chaostheory 3y ago
      > Lots of retirees getting their pensions reduced, their personal savings in the form of real estate In socialism, there’s no need for a pension. The state will decide what to distribute, how much and to whom. > can’t even see a doctor without waiting for months (unless paying high fees out of pocket) In socialism, you get allocated resources and services from the “community” aka state. When resources are finite, you wait in lines. We’re already seeing that in nations with socialized healthcare without a private option > the whole population shrinkage thing in the long run Thank you for bringing that up. All modern economic systems, socialism included, require growth.
  - bannedbybros 3y ago
    [dead]
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Europe tried this with Russia (fossil gas) and still ended up in a bad spot. Trade is important and can be beneficial, but one should still prepare for war if peace is desired. The mental models of some nation state leaders deviates from what one would consider logical. They won’t hesitate to burn what has been built for their goals.
- yorwba 3y ago
  Jack Ma said that China should "not worry about financial systemic risks" and warned about "Collateralization with a pawnshop mentality" https://interconnected.blog/jack-ma-bund-finance-summit-speech/ https://interconnected.blog/jack-ma-bund-finance-summit-spee... because Ant Financial was making uncollateralized loans on a huge scale, something they were only able to do because they weren't subject to the same regulations as established financial institutions, and this was about to change. With Ant Financial being just another regulated lender, there was no way to justify their inflated valuation and by proxy the valuation of parent company Alibaba. Hence the sharp decrease in stock price. So I think you have your causality backwards: Alibaba didn't lose value because of Jack Ma's warning, rather the "problem" with China's regulatory system he was warning about was that it was going to make Alibaba lose value. (And invoking his advice when another financial systemic risk is rearing its head might not be the most appropriate.)
- goodbyesf 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - metabagel 3y ago
    > They have no choice. War is coming to them whether they like it or not. Wait… what? Which country is going to attack China?
    - goodbyesf 3y ago
      The country that has been building military bases all around china? The country that has a history of attacking china for 200 years? The country that contemplated nuking china? Is that a serious question? If china's official stance was that the US was it's top enemy and their goal was to 'contain the US' and proceeded to build military bases all over canada, mexico, cuba, etc, we'd take that as a declaration of war.
progrus 3y ago
Let’s hope that a better system comes out of all of this chaos.
- happytiger 3y ago
  Here here’s This is a key point. Even without all this, the world’s existing systems of Government have a challenge ahead of them with emerging digital intelligence. We rarely can predict or even conceive of the next era when the previous era is in retrograde before big changes, though people like to pretend it’s all very linear and predictable in history books.
  - progrus 3y ago
    No, that’s mostly a PSYOP too, my 五美元 friend. LLMs go schizophrenic long before they get anywhere close to human intelligence: https://chat.openai.com/share/f5341665-7f08-4fca-9639-04201363506e https://chat.openai.com/share/f5341665-7f08-4fca-9639-042013...
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
Are these "Chinese Trust Companies" like family offices in the US? The description in the article made me think so, just trying to understand what the equivalent is in Western markets.
- qzw 3y ago
  No, it’s more like in the “Trust Buster” sense from US economic history. These are big conglomerates that control numerous subsidiary businesses across a number of industries. Japan, Korea, and numerous other countries have similar business entities.
- DrDroop 3y ago
  My understanding is that is that in the Chinese system of commercial paper (corporate depth) not only is the company responsible for paying back the money but anyone who ever held and sold that piece of paper. These trusts are a type of (shadow) bank that manage this risk.
  - thedudeabides5 3y ago
    Yes, a trust is a non-bank financial institution that is responsible for packaging risk or directly extending credit to for example, local real estate / development projects.
cf100clunk 3y ago
For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-economic-problems-show-things-are-seriously-amiss https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth was astronomical. But with weaker global demand, domestic demand waning, and almost every company figuring out their China production exit in some way or another, it’s bound to pop some day soon. My worry is chinas instability economically leads to political instability leads to wars to distract and focus away from the man behind the curtain.
  - ladyanita22 3y ago
    One must remember that back in 2015, China established capital controls on the yuan. That + the pandemic (a massive, epic increase in money supply and cheap credit) helped China keep that going. AFAIK China's housing bubble began in 2008, after the housing bubbles of the West stopped giving China the growth it needed so much. So yeah, they kept the bubble going for long (and they're still trying to "soft-land" the economy, but I don't believe there's a soft-landing possible that doesn't lead to a Japan situation).
  - bushbaba 3y ago
    Could say the same about nyc.
    - fnordpiglet 3y ago
      NYC vacancy rates are single digit, while Shanghai is around 15% and Nanning is around 25%. It’s incomparable. Imagine if 25% of the apartments in NYC were completely vacant. https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-china/ https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-chi...
14 3y ago
[flagged]
- NicoJuicy 3y ago
  I really wish I could enjoy China. But the downsides of being a Western in China are too big and since it's somewhat rooted in the culture by now ( arbitrary laws), I shouldn't go... Ever
  - meiraleal 3y ago
    There are millions of Americans doing business in China, 2 Michael's in jail isn't something that can be considered an arbitrary law as much as Canada keeping a Chinese citizen in jail.
    - NicoJuicy 3y ago
      You're lying. Canada acted on a US-warrant ( not an arbitrary law) and her "jail" ( the CFO of Huawei) was in a luxury mansion. The 2 Michaels China retaliated against, weren't as comfy as her. Those businessmen are less and less inclined to travel to China. Here's a lawyer with expertise on the topic, it's a lot more troubling than your "2 Michaels", lol. Exit bans in China: https://harrisbricken.com/chinalawblog/china-exit-bans-you-can-check-out-any-time-you-want-but-you-cant-ever-leave/ https://harrisbricken.com/chinalawblog/china-exit-bans-you-c...
      - meiraleal 3y ago
        > You're lying. Canada acted on a US-warrant ( not an arbitrary law) and her "jail" ( the CFO of Huawei) was in a luxury mansion. This is criminal, arbitrary and clearly political.
        NicoJuicy 3y ago
        Read and learn There was an arrest by the US outstanding, Canada was required by the extradition threaty to at least act, supreme Court found it lawful. There was already a warrant for her arrest for over 4 months in the US ... Ming acknowledged her false statements about Iran to enable her to trade with US. Her "prison" was her 5 million $ home... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_case_of_Meng_Wanzhou https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_case_of_Meng_Wan... The politics was played by China, after the deal that she could go back to China, China randomly locked up 2 Canadians.
ssabev 3y ago
But I was told China was winning. De-dollarisation to a completely "free-floating" RMB was happening. The official numbers foretold it! /s
undefinedland 3y ago
[flagged]
- meiraleal 3y ago
  I'm wondering if you are a hateful CCP supporter or a troll pretending to be a hateful CCP supporter.
  - undefinedland 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - porkbeer 3y ago
    Past comments should make it obvious. Although I did expect the wumao to show up by now.
    - undefinedland 3y ago
      [dead]
- ecf 3y ago
  You know it’s a good article about China when this starts appearing in the comment section.
  - undefinedland 3y ago
    [flagged]
cs702 3y ago
By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away from authoritarianism, leading to the country's gradual transition into a modern democracy -- to the detriment of party apparatchiks and their psychophants, whose power and importance depends on maintaining the status quo. My biggest fear is that party apparatchiks start pushing for policies that can lead only to armed conflict in the hopes of holding on to their power and status -- e.g., they might push for annexing Taiwan by force in the short run, ensuring a confrontation with the West. Few things impede political change as well as armed conflict. --- [a] See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 for background.
- jamesaurichs 3y ago
  With numbers like 1.) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 2.) 95% decrease in FDI https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-the-west-snubs-china/ https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-th... 3.) double digit plunge in import and export in July https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-plunge-in-july-exports-and-imports-missing-expectations.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p... 4.) negative CPI I would call it what it is: China is in a great depression
  - unstatusthequo 3y ago
    And assume any number they provide to the “outside” is also exaggerated in their favor. So I assume any number provided is at least, a best case figure, or total invention.
- nradov 3y ago
  Regardless of the political and economic issues, the CCP leadership is well aware that they still lack the amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan's main island. It will take a few more years at least to build that capacity. In the mean time if they choose to make a push it will likely be toward some of the smaller islands closer to the mainland.
dirtyid 3y ago
IIT PRC collapcist think some how CCP proactively managing economic risks with 5% growth is a sign of collapse, almost every other major economy is in recession by that standard. Like tech crackdown, three redlines on real estate, local gov deleveraging, cracking down on bad banks (henan), and now Trust drama - they're problems PRC regulators has been seeking out to manage because they have the economic and political headroom to do so. And they can do so relatively responsibly, i.e. actual deleverage, and punish bad actors, not just print dollars/bail out like US (due to dollar privilege), precisely because CCP has political power to push unpopular interventions without breaking the economy. They don't always take, but they're more powerful levers/tools than what democracy offers. The very fact that this article is about Trust Companies trying to circumvent regulators means PRC still needs more authoritarianism, not less.
hero_antagonist 3y ago
I would not trust anything written about China. They’ve become masterful at deception. They want to have this image that they are weak and limping as they slowly take over the West.
ws169144 3y ago
China is only solving its own problems, including the high leverage, high debt, and unequal wealth distribution that everyone has mentioned. These have nothing to do with Western countries. If there is any relationship, it is not on a political level, it is merely business. China only wants its common people to live better lives, that's all.
- ws169144 3y ago
  Since 1840, China's goal has always been national independence and harmonious coexistence with the countries of the world. During this period, China also experienced democracy under capitalism, but these all failed under the dual interference of the United States and the Soviet Union. You may also say that China eventually chose to be like the former Soviet Union, but as long as you walk around a little, look around a little, come to China and see, China is completely different from the former Soviet Union. If people lack basic understanding of history, but rely on biased media propaganda, adopt preconceived views to treat China, or anything, it would be inappropriate. Moreover, even up to now, China is still willing to coexist peacefully with any country, and China's politicians and civil servants are still open enough. If we do not cherish such a rare atmosphere, one day in the future, when all countries' politicians adopt populism and warmongering, no one will have any good results.

75 points by arizonaforce 3y ago

Wave of bankruptcies threaten global markets.

Make business, not war. Not my advice but the advice of Jack Ma. You know, the guy the CCP effectively stripped of most of his influence for warning them about problems with China's banking and regulatory system.

chaostheory 3y ago
The problem is that Xi hijacked the CCP. He’s now on his way to transitioning China back to socialism and a centrally planned economy.
- jqpabc123 3y ago
  Did Xi hijack the CCP --- or did the CCP try to hijack capitalism and Xi is just their frontman?
  - SllX 3y ago
    Prior to the most recent National Congress of the CCP, the General Secretary of the CCP and Paramount Leader of the PRC would only serve two terms of 5 years. Xi Jinping is now in his third term. He also made a show of having his immediate predecessor dragged out of the proceedings without explanation, and so Hu Jintao was unable to cast any votes. When the voting was all said and done, Xi Jinping was retained for a third term as Chairman Winnie the Pooh; and Li Zhanusa who appeared visibly upset and attempted to help Hu Jintao until being pulled back by Wang Huning and Li Keqiang of the Hu faction were not retained for the 20th Central Committee. In order to show Hu Jintao was not disappeared, he was later appointed to oversee the funeral proceedings of his own immediate predecessor, Jiang Zemin, over 35 other people who were ahead of him on a list of people to oversee the proceedings. So you tell us, did Chairman Winnie the Pooh here hijack the CCP or is he just their frontman?
    - nonrepeating 3y ago
      That's an interesting question. The Economist attempted to answer it with their series "The Prince" (https://www.economist.com/theprincepod https://www.economist.com/theprincepod), and I believe their conclusion is that Xi has indeed consolidated power around himself and is nearly an autocrat at this point. Two provisos on this, however: - The author, Sue-Lin Wong, is something of an outsider, and outsider reporting on China typically misses some subtleties of the real situation in the country. - Given the nature of China, there will never be a fully autocratic leader there, though it may appear that way to some, and the would-be autocrat might be deluded into thinking they are.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - chaostheory 3y ago
    That was their hope that Xi would be an easily controlled puppet. If that was the case, it would still be business as usual without the giant messes of Wolf Warrior diplomacy, the ending of one China two systems policy, and the kidnappings of Jack Ma and other capitalist elites which has led to decoupling and a mass exodus of said elites and as many assets as they can take. Xi is not their front man. Xi is now their ruler who wants to regress China back to Mao’s system. The CCP also adopted capitalism. I don't see how they hijacked it.
- qzw 3y ago
  “Socialism” but without any of the social safety nets, from what I hear. Lots of retirees getting their pensions reduced, their personal savings in the form of real estate (~75% of household wealth) sinking in value, can’t even see a doctor without waiting for months (unless paying high fees out of pocket), high debt loads both public and private, deflationary pressures, and oh, the whole population shrinkage thing in the long run. Daunting challenges even for a fearless leader that knows what he’s doing, not to mention the one they’ve got.
  - yycc9866tfbvxd 3y ago
    [dead]
  - chaostheory 3y ago
    > Lots of retirees getting their pensions reduced, their personal savings in the form of real estate In socialism, there’s no need for a pension. The state will decide what to distribute, how much and to whom. > can’t even see a doctor without waiting for months (unless paying high fees out of pocket) In socialism, you get allocated resources and services from the “community” aka state. When resources are finite, you wait in lines. We’re already seeing that in nations with socialized healthcare without a private option > the whole population shrinkage thing in the long run Thank you for bringing that up. All modern economic systems, socialism included, require growth.
- bannedbybros 3y ago
  [dead]
toomuchtodo 3y ago
Europe tried this with Russia (fossil gas) and still ended up in a bad spot. Trade is important and can be beneficial, but one should still prepare for war if peace is desired. The mental models of some nation state leaders deviates from what one would consider logical. They won’t hesitate to burn what has been built for their goals.
yorwba 3y ago
Jack Ma said that China should "not worry about financial systemic risks" and warned about "Collateralization with a pawnshop mentality" https://interconnected.blog/jack-ma-bund-finance-summit-speech/ https://interconnected.blog/jack-ma-bund-finance-summit-spee... because Ant Financial was making uncollateralized loans on a huge scale, something they were only able to do because they weren't subject to the same regulations as established financial institutions, and this was about to change. With Ant Financial being just another regulated lender, there was no way to justify their inflated valuation and by proxy the valuation of parent company Alibaba. Hence the sharp decrease in stock price. So I think you have your causality backwards: Alibaba didn't lose value because of Jack Ma's warning, rather the "problem" with China's regulatory system he was warning about was that it was going to make Alibaba lose value. (And invoking his advice when another financial systemic risk is rearing its head might not be the most appropriate.)
goodbyesf 3y ago
[flagged]
- metabagel 3y ago
  > They have no choice. War is coming to them whether they like it or not. Wait… what? Which country is going to attack China?
  - goodbyesf 3y ago
    The country that has been building military bases all around china? The country that has a history of attacking china for 200 years? The country that contemplated nuking china? Is that a serious question? If china's official stance was that the US was it's top enemy and their goal was to 'contain the US' and proceeded to build military bases all over canada, mexico, cuba, etc, we'd take that as a declaration of war.

progrus 3y ago

Let’s hope that a better system comes out of all of this chaos.

happytiger 3y ago
Here here’s This is a key point. Even without all this, the world’s existing systems of Government have a challenge ahead of them with emerging digital intelligence. We rarely can predict or even conceive of the next era when the previous era is in retrograde before big changes, though people like to pretend it’s all very linear and predictable in history books.
- progrus 3y ago
  No, that’s mostly a PSYOP too, my 五美元 friend. LLMs go schizophrenic long before they get anywhere close to human intelligence: https://chat.openai.com/share/f5341665-7f08-4fca-9639-04201363506e https://chat.openai.com/share/f5341665-7f08-4fca-9639-042013...

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

Are these "Chinese Trust Companies" like family offices in the US? The description in the article made me think so, just trying to understand what the equivalent is in Western markets.

qzw 3y ago
No, it’s more like in the “Trust Buster” sense from US economic history. These are big conglomerates that control numerous subsidiary businesses across a number of industries. Japan, Korea, and numerous other countries have similar business entities.
DrDroop 3y ago
My understanding is that is that in the Chinese system of commercial paper (corporate depth) not only is the company responsible for paying back the money but anyone who ever held and sold that piece of paper. These trusts are a type of (shadow) bank that manage this risk.
- thedudeabides5 3y ago
  Yes, a trust is a non-bank financial institution that is responsible for packaging risk or directly extending credit to for example, local real estate / development projects.

cf100clunk 3y ago

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-economic-problems-show-things-are-seriously-amiss https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

fnordpiglet 3y ago
The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth was astronomical. But with weaker global demand, domestic demand waning, and almost every company figuring out their China production exit in some way or another, it’s bound to pop some day soon. My worry is chinas instability economically leads to political instability leads to wars to distract and focus away from the man behind the curtain.
- ladyanita22 3y ago
  One must remember that back in 2015, China established capital controls on the yuan. That + the pandemic (a massive, epic increase in money supply and cheap credit) helped China keep that going. AFAIK China's housing bubble began in 2008, after the housing bubbles of the West stopped giving China the growth it needed so much. So yeah, they kept the bubble going for long (and they're still trying to "soft-land" the economy, but I don't believe there's a soft-landing possible that doesn't lead to a Japan situation).
- bushbaba 3y ago
  Could say the same about nyc.
  - fnordpiglet 3y ago
    NYC vacancy rates are single digit, while Shanghai is around 15% and Nanning is around 25%. It’s incomparable. Imagine if 25% of the apartments in NYC were completely vacant. https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-china/ https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-chi...

14 3y ago

[flagged]

NicoJuicy 3y ago
I really wish I could enjoy China. But the downsides of being a Western in China are too big and since it's somewhat rooted in the culture by now ( arbitrary laws), I shouldn't go... Ever
- meiraleal 3y ago
  There are millions of Americans doing business in China, 2 Michael's in jail isn't something that can be considered an arbitrary law as much as Canada keeping a Chinese citizen in jail.
  - NicoJuicy 3y ago
    You're lying. Canada acted on a US-warrant ( not an arbitrary law) and her "jail" ( the CFO of Huawei) was in a luxury mansion. The 2 Michaels China retaliated against, weren't as comfy as her. Those businessmen are less and less inclined to travel to China. Here's a lawyer with expertise on the topic, it's a lot more troubling than your "2 Michaels", lol. Exit bans in China: https://harrisbricken.com/chinalawblog/china-exit-bans-you-can-check-out-any-time-you-want-but-you-cant-ever-leave/ https://harrisbricken.com/chinalawblog/china-exit-bans-you-c...
    - meiraleal 3y ago
      > You're lying. Canada acted on a US-warrant ( not an arbitrary law) and her "jail" ( the CFO of Huawei) was in a luxury mansion. This is criminal, arbitrary and clearly political.
      - NicoJuicy 3y ago
        Read and learn There was an arrest by the US outstanding, Canada was required by the extradition threaty to at least act, supreme Court found it lawful. There was already a warrant for her arrest for over 4 months in the US ... Ming acknowledged her false statements about Iran to enable her to trade with US. Her "prison" was her 5 million $ home... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_case_of_Meng_Wanzhou https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_case_of_Meng_Wan... The politics was played by China, after the deal that she could go back to China, China randomly locked up 2 Canadians.

ssabev 3y ago

But I was told China was winning. De-dollarisation to a completely "free-floating" RMB was happening. The official numbers foretold it! /s

undefinedland 3y ago

[flagged]

meiraleal 3y ago
I'm wondering if you are a hateful CCP supporter or a troll pretending to be a hateful CCP supporter.
- undefinedland 3y ago
  [flagged]
- porkbeer 3y ago
  Past comments should make it obvious. Although I did expect the wumao to show up by now.
  - undefinedland 3y ago
    [dead]
ecf 3y ago
You know it’s a good article about China when this starts appearing in the comment section.
- undefinedland 3y ago
  [flagged]

cs702 3y ago

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away from authoritarianism, leading to the country's gradual transition into a modern democracy -- to the detriment of party apparatchiks and their psychophants, whose power and importance depends on maintaining the status quo. My biggest fear is that party apparatchiks start pushing for policies that can lead only to armed conflict in the hopes of holding on to their power and status -- e.g., they might push for annexing Taiwan by force in the short run, ensuring a confrontation with the West. Few things impede political change as well as armed conflict. --- [a] See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 for background.

jamesaurichs 3y ago
With numbers like 1.) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 2.) 95% decrease in FDI https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-the-west-snubs-china/ https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-th... 3.) double digit plunge in import and export in July https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-plunge-in-july-exports-and-imports-missing-expectations.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p... 4.) negative CPI I would call it what it is: China is in a great depression
- unstatusthequo 3y ago
  And assume any number they provide to the “outside” is also exaggerated in their favor. So I assume any number provided is at least, a best case figure, or total invention.
nradov 3y ago
Regardless of the political and economic issues, the CCP leadership is well aware that they still lack the amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan's main island. It will take a few more years at least to build that capacity. In the mean time if they choose to make a push it will likely be toward some of the smaller islands closer to the mainland.

dirtyid 3y ago

IIT PRC collapcist think some how CCP proactively managing economic risks with 5% growth is a sign of collapse, almost every other major economy is in recession by that standard. Like tech crackdown, three redlines on real estate, local gov deleveraging, cracking down on bad banks (henan), and now Trust drama - they're problems PRC regulators has been seeking out to manage because they have the economic and political headroom to do so. And they can do so relatively responsibly, i.e. actual deleverage, and punish bad actors, not just print dollars/bail out like US (due to dollar privilege), precisely because CCP has political power to push unpopular interventions without breaking the economy. They don't always take, but they're more powerful levers/tools than what democracy offers. The very fact that this article is about Trust Companies trying to circumvent regulators means PRC still needs more authoritarianism, not less.

hero_antagonist 3y ago

I would not trust anything written about China. They’ve become masterful at deception. They want to have this image that they are weak and limping as they slowly take over the West.

ws169144 3y ago

China is only solving its own problems, including the high leverage, high debt, and unequal wealth distribution that everyone has mentioned. These have nothing to do with Western countries. If there is any relationship, it is not on a political level, it is merely business. China only wants its common people to live better lives, that's all.

ws169144 3y ago
Since 1840, China's goal has always been national independence and harmonious coexistence with the countries of the world. During this period, China also experienced democracy under capitalism, but these all failed under the dual interference of the United States and the Soviet Union. You may also say that China eventually chose to be like the former Soviet Union, but as long as you walk around a little, look around a little, come to China and see, China is completely different from the former Soviet Union. If people lack basic understanding of history, but rely on biased media propaganda, adopt preconceived views to treat China, or anything, it would be inappropriate. Moreover, even up to now, China is still willing to coexist peacefully with any country, and China's politicians and civil servants are still open enough. If we do not cherish such a rare atmosphere, one day in the future, when all countries' politicians adopt populism and warmongering, no one will have any good results.