5 ms·

That was Donald Rumsfeld!? I always assumed this came from some techie or agile guru given how much it's used as a concept in project planning.

midasuni 3y ago
And unknown unknowns is a great way to communicate with stakeholders too
- roughly 3y ago
  Žižek has a followup to that quote: "What he forgot to add was the crucial fourth term: the "unknown knowns," the things we don't know that we know." I've found it's really critical during the project planning phase to get to not just where the boundaries of our knowledge are, but also where are the things we're either tacitly assuming or not even aware that we've assumed. An awful lot of postmortems I've been a part of have come down to "It didn't occur to us that could happen."
  - munificent 3y ago
    > An awful lot of postmortems I've been a part of have come down to "It didn't occur to us that could happen." Would that not be an unknown unknown?
    - roughly 3y ago
      Usually there's a tacit assumption of how the system works, how the users are using the system, or something else about the system or the environment that causes that - it's not that the answer wasn't known, it's that it was assumed to be something it wasn't and nobody realized that was an assumption and not a fact.
      - thfuran 3y ago
        That's just an unknown unknown masquerading as a known known.
  - waprin 3y ago
    I really enjoy the concept of unknown knowns, but I don’t agree with your example, which is an unknown unknown. To me the corporate version of the unknown known is when a a project is certainly doomed, for reasons everyone on the ground knows about, yet nobody wants to say anything and be the messenger that inevitably gets killed, as long as paycheck keeps clearing. An exec ten thousand feet from the ground sets a “vision” which can’t be blown off course by minor details such as reality, until the day it does. Theranos is a famous example of this but I’ve had less extreme versions happen to me many times throughout my career. Another example of unknown knowns might be the conflict between companies stated values (Focus on the User) and the unstated values that are often much more important (Make Lots of Money)
    - roughly 3y ago
      Yeah, you’re right. I was reaching for an example, but yours are much better and better capture the idea.
    - cozzyd 3y ago
      In the case of the Iraq war, the unknown knowns were probably key...
  - 59nadir 3y ago
    I think unknown knowns are more easy to spot when teaching newcomers how the system works. Their questions will sometimes be about things we hadn't even considerered (at least in some time) to be the case, but when you have to spell everything out it is indeed the case. In terms of teaching unknown knowns are critical to identify and instead make known knowns so that everyone can end up with a mostly equal playing field. As an example, there are a lot of unknown knowns that you accumulate over the years in certain lower level languages that need to be spelled out more clearly to someone who is coming at it as a later endeavor. It's entirely possible to spend all your time in a completely managed language nowadays and the concept of the stack, heap, etc., will be largely alien to you. These ideas and their limitations need to be spelled out clearly in order for someone to build the same knowledge base and intuition. Unknown knowns are essentially endless in nature and extremely hard to find unless you have someone who simply doesn't know to basically fall into traps and guide you toward finding your hidden knowledge.
a_seattle_ian 3y ago
That it came from Donald Rumsfeld in the context of what we know now and what he surely knew then is why it's such a good quote. The words basically say nothing but are also true about everything. So it can implicit be a warning that there is probably some bullshit going on or someone has a sense of humor and is also warning people while also avoiding the subject - of course just my opinion. How people actually use it will depend what the audience agrees it to mean.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- KnobbleMcKnees 3y ago
  The common use I'm referring to is similar to the OP, which is using it as a framework for assessing risk. In particular, aligning a team on the "known unknowns" is critical to building the confidence and alignment needed as a group to be able to deal with unquantifiable/inestimable risk.
  - a_seattle_ian 3y ago
    I just took a look at that wiki article for Rumsfeld's usage of the "There are unknown unknowns" and I had no idea that he barrowed this phrase to frame his arguments and I was only familiar with that context, unfortunately.
killjoywashere 3y ago
As a military officer who was watching CNN live from inside an aircraft carrier (moored) when he said that, being in charge of anti-terrorism on the ship at the time, it was absolutely foundational to my approach to so many things after that. Here's the actual footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REWeBzGuzCc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REWeBzGuzCc Rumsfeld was complicated, but there's no doubt he was very effective at leading the Department. I think most people fail to realize how sophisticated the Office of the Secretary of Defense is. Their resources reel the mind, most of all the human capital, many with PhDs, many very savvy political operators with stunning operational experiences. As a small example, as I recall, Google's hallowed SRE system was developed by an engineer who had come up through the ranks of Navy nuclear power. That's but one small component reporting into OSD. Not a Rumsfeld apologist, by any means. Errol Morris did a good job showing the man for who he is, and it's not pretty (1). But reading HN comments opining about the leadership qualities of a Navy fighter pilot who was both the youngest and oldest SECDEF makes me realize how the Internet lets people indulge in a Dunning-Kruger situation the likes of which humanity has never seen. https://www.amazon.com/Known-Donald-Rumsfeld/dp/B00JGMJ914 https://www.amazon.com/Known-Donald-Rumsfeld/dp/B00JGMJ914
- jacquesm 3y ago
  Indeed, it is very well possible to be both brilliant and an ethically completely unhinged individual.
- michael1999 3y ago
  I'll support you there. In any sensible reading of Nuremberg, they all deserve to hang from the neck until dead. But the central moral failure was Bush. Letting Cheney hijack the vp search, and then pairing him up with Rumsfeld was a bad move, and obviously bad at the time. Those two had established themselves as brilliant but paranoid kooks with their Team B fantasies in the 70s, and should never have been allowed free rein.
- sgarland 3y ago
  > Google's hallowed SRE system was developed by an engineer who had come up through the ranks of Navy nuclear power Wait, really? That makes _so much sense._ It also makes me upset that all of my attempts to sway other SRE orgs over to Nuclear Navy practices have been met with doubt. - ex nuke submariner
twelvechairs 3y ago
It's from a post WWII psychological theory the 'Johari Window'. Rumsfeld brought the phrase into wider consciousness. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johari_window https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johari_window

midasuni 3y ago

And unknown unknowns is a great way to communicate with stakeholders too

roughly 3y ago
Žižek has a followup to that quote: "What he forgot to add was the crucial fourth term: the "unknown knowns," the things we don't know that we know." I've found it's really critical during the project planning phase to get to not just where the boundaries of our knowledge are, but also where are the things we're either tacitly assuming or not even aware that we've assumed. An awful lot of postmortems I've been a part of have come down to "It didn't occur to us that could happen."
- munificent 3y ago
  > An awful lot of postmortems I've been a part of have come down to "It didn't occur to us that could happen." Would that not be an unknown unknown?
  - roughly 3y ago
    Usually there's a tacit assumption of how the system works, how the users are using the system, or something else about the system or the environment that causes that - it's not that the answer wasn't known, it's that it was assumed to be something it wasn't and nobody realized that was an assumption and not a fact.
    - thfuran 3y ago
      That's just an unknown unknown masquerading as a known known.
- waprin 3y ago
  I really enjoy the concept of unknown knowns, but I don’t agree with your example, which is an unknown unknown. To me the corporate version of the unknown known is when a a project is certainly doomed, for reasons everyone on the ground knows about, yet nobody wants to say anything and be the messenger that inevitably gets killed, as long as paycheck keeps clearing. An exec ten thousand feet from the ground sets a “vision” which can’t be blown off course by minor details such as reality, until the day it does. Theranos is a famous example of this but I’ve had less extreme versions happen to me many times throughout my career. Another example of unknown knowns might be the conflict between companies stated values (Focus on the User) and the unstated values that are often much more important (Make Lots of Money)
  - roughly 3y ago
    Yeah, you’re right. I was reaching for an example, but yours are much better and better capture the idea.
  - cozzyd 3y ago
    In the case of the Iraq war, the unknown knowns were probably key...
- 59nadir 3y ago
  I think unknown knowns are more easy to spot when teaching newcomers how the system works. Their questions will sometimes be about things we hadn't even considerered (at least in some time) to be the case, but when you have to spell everything out it is indeed the case. In terms of teaching unknown knowns are critical to identify and instead make known knowns so that everyone can end up with a mostly equal playing field. As an example, there are a lot of unknown knowns that you accumulate over the years in certain lower level languages that need to be spelled out more clearly to someone who is coming at it as a later endeavor. It's entirely possible to spend all your time in a completely managed language nowadays and the concept of the stack, heap, etc., will be largely alien to you. These ideas and their limitations need to be spelled out clearly in order for someone to build the same knowledge base and intuition. Unknown knowns are essentially endless in nature and extremely hard to find unless you have someone who simply doesn't know to basically fall into traps and guide you toward finding your hidden knowledge.

a_seattle_ian 3y ago

That it came from Donald Rumsfeld in the context of what we know now and what he surely knew then is why it's such a good quote. The words basically say nothing but are also true about everything. So it can implicit be a warning that there is probably some bullshit going on or someone has a sense of humor and is also warning people while also avoiding the subject - of course just my opinion. How people actually use it will depend what the audience agrees it to mean.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
KnobbleMcKnees 3y ago
The common use I'm referring to is similar to the OP, which is using it as a framework for assessing risk. In particular, aligning a team on the "known unknowns" is critical to building the confidence and alignment needed as a group to be able to deal with unquantifiable/inestimable risk.
- a_seattle_ian 3y ago
  I just took a look at that wiki article for Rumsfeld's usage of the "There are unknown unknowns" and I had no idea that he barrowed this phrase to frame his arguments and I was only familiar with that context, unfortunately.

killjoywashere 3y ago

As a military officer who was watching CNN live from inside an aircraft carrier (moored) when he said that, being in charge of anti-terrorism on the ship at the time, it was absolutely foundational to my approach to so many things after that. Here's the actual footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REWeBzGuzCc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REWeBzGuzCc Rumsfeld was complicated, but there's no doubt he was very effective at leading the Department. I think most people fail to realize how sophisticated the Office of the Secretary of Defense is. Their resources reel the mind, most of all the human capital, many with PhDs, many very savvy political operators with stunning operational experiences. As a small example, as I recall, Google's hallowed SRE system was developed by an engineer who had come up through the ranks of Navy nuclear power. That's but one small component reporting into OSD. Not a Rumsfeld apologist, by any means. Errol Morris did a good job showing the man for who he is, and it's not pretty (1). But reading HN comments opining about the leadership qualities of a Navy fighter pilot who was both the youngest and oldest SECDEF makes me realize how the Internet lets people indulge in a Dunning-Kruger situation the likes of which humanity has never seen. https://www.amazon.com/Known-Donald-Rumsfeld/dp/B00JGMJ914 https://www.amazon.com/Known-Donald-Rumsfeld/dp/B00JGMJ914

jacquesm 3y ago
Indeed, it is very well possible to be both brilliant and an ethically completely unhinged individual.
michael1999 3y ago
I'll support you there. In any sensible reading of Nuremberg, they all deserve to hang from the neck until dead. But the central moral failure was Bush. Letting Cheney hijack the vp search, and then pairing him up with Rumsfeld was a bad move, and obviously bad at the time. Those two had established themselves as brilliant but paranoid kooks with their Team B fantasies in the 70s, and should never have been allowed free rein.
sgarland 3y ago
> Google's hallowed SRE system was developed by an engineer who had come up through the ranks of Navy nuclear power Wait, really? That makes _so much sense._ It also makes me upset that all of my attempts to sway other SRE orgs over to Nuclear Navy practices have been met with doubt. - ex nuke submariner

twelvechairs 3y ago

It's from a post WWII psychological theory the 'Johari Window'. Rumsfeld brought the phrase into wider consciousness. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johari_window https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johari_window