I have a dumb question. People often talk about low unemployment as though it means a recession is less likely. But a) unemployment is a lagging indicator and b

I have a dumb question. People often talk about low unemployment as though it means a recession is less likely. But a) unemployment is a lagging indicator and b) a local minimum is what happens before an increase. So by the latter logic I guess we should be looking at the first and second derivative of the unemployment rate, although the signal is too noisy to say anything in real time. Or if we had some idea of what the unemployment rate would bottom out, that could mark the beginning of a recession (nowhere to go but up). We can only guess at that, though the current unemployment rate of 3.5 is as low as its been in 50 years (give or take 0.2%). So to me that seems like a recession is likely going to happen this year or next. Plus the yield curve has been inverted for awhile. The only major objection I can think of is that COVID has just had a very strong impact and economic indicators may still be out of whack. So what's wrong with my thinking?