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I don't see anything bad with this hype cycle : - these guys thought they found something - turns out it probably wasn't superconductors but it's an still

I don't see anything bad with this hype cycle : - these guys thought they found something - turns out it probably wasn't superconductors but it's an still interesting finding - there was no fraud and something new was discovered - material science got a bit more mainstream exposure I'd rather see that than another crypto or AI hype cycle

exmadscientist 3y ago
No, it really wasn't that bad. The annoying part, at least for me as someone who, uh, I guess used to go to a lot of colloquia on this stuff?, is the part you left out: people pre-judged the outcome (of all three phenomena you mention!) and then got really, really cranky with anyone who dared challenge their position. If you (generic rhetorical you) want to believe that LK99 is going to superconduct, or that Bitcoin is going to the moon, or that AGI is coming next week, that's great. Really, it is! And you're allowed to talk about it, and put your money where your mouth is, and all that. What you're not allowed to do is get mad at people who respectfully disagree with you and point out why your dumb arguments are dumb. And you really, really, really need to pay attention, and not get more hostile, when your position starts to get falsified, as is/was helpfully possible for LK99 (but not so much those others). Do not hold fast to false things. I understand that this is difficult when the people taking the other side are being equally awful, but such is life. We need to rise above, not get dragged down, lest everything fall into the same cesspools as contemporary politics.
- netheril96 3y ago
  > really cranky with anyone who dared challenge their position. You could profit from those people, if you are confident in your position, by shorting some of the stocks that shoot up from people's pre-judgments on this matter.
  - jeltz 3y ago
    Usually not because as the saying goes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Most people simply cannot afford to make those bets against the market.
hliyan 3y ago
Since this was an exceedingly short cycle, we were spared one of the negatives. Well, mostly: - some folks massively hype this as the "next big thing", extract money from investors and take mindshare away from more promising, but less exciting work
- jacquesm 3y ago
  There is no shortage of subjects where exactly that is being tried.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  You say it’s a short cycle now. But I bet a non-trivial number of people are still talking about this and trying to get results long after the initial cycle. It took years for cold fusion research to go away.
  - cwillu 3y ago
    So what? We can still have labels for fuzzy concepts like “took the world by storm, for 2 weeks”, even if a couple thousand people are still excited about it 2 years later.
    - dcow 3y ago
      It’s the original definition of a meme.
Lockal 3y ago
Last time I saw this cycle with EmDrive - some guy created EmDrive (2001) - author argued for decades that EmDrive violates Newton’s Laws - author filled a group of patents, launched a new company "Universal Propulsion Ltd." (2016). But by this point, DOZENS of independent researchers had already proven that EmDrive doesn't create thrust. - NASA and DoD and a lot of smaller companies just threw money away testing something that can't even work in theory - "there was no fraud" (allegedly), all blamed on measurement errors - mainstream exposure was pure hype, it was just electromagnetic/thermal effect, the research has yielded ABSOLUTELY NOTHING new.
- hliyan 3y ago
  This is exactly right. The only difference here is that EmDrive straight up violated a law of physics, whereas high-temp superconductivity was just a matter of degree (pun intended). I was somewhat skeptical of EmDrive, but was very hopeful about LK99. Alas, it was not to be. We'll have to take the slow road to room temperature superconductors.

exmadscientist 3y ago

No, it really wasn't that bad. The annoying part, at least for me as someone who, uh, I guess used to go to a lot of colloquia on this stuff?, is the part you left out: people pre-judged the outcome (of all three phenomena you mention!) and then got really, really cranky with anyone who dared challenge their position. If you (generic rhetorical you) want to believe that LK99 is going to superconduct, or that Bitcoin is going to the moon, or that AGI is coming next week, that's great. Really, it is! And you're allowed to talk about it, and put your money where your mouth is, and all that. What you're not allowed to do is get mad at people who respectfully disagree with you and point out why your dumb arguments are dumb. And you really, really, really need to pay attention, and not get more hostile, when your position starts to get falsified, as is/was helpfully possible for LK99 (but not so much those others). Do not hold fast to false things. I understand that this is difficult when the people taking the other side are being equally awful, but such is life. We need to rise above, not get dragged down, lest everything fall into the same cesspools as contemporary politics.

netheril96 3y ago
> really cranky with anyone who dared challenge their position. You could profit from those people, if you are confident in your position, by shorting some of the stocks that shoot up from people's pre-judgments on this matter.
- jeltz 3y ago
  Usually not because as the saying goes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Most people simply cannot afford to make those bets against the market.

hliyan 3y ago

Since this was an exceedingly short cycle, we were spared one of the negatives. Well, mostly: - some folks massively hype this as the "next big thing", extract money from investors and take mindshare away from more promising, but less exciting work

jacquesm 3y ago
There is no shortage of subjects where exactly that is being tried.
matthewdgreen 3y ago
You say it’s a short cycle now. But I bet a non-trivial number of people are still talking about this and trying to get results long after the initial cycle. It took years for cold fusion research to go away.
- cwillu 3y ago
  So what? We can still have labels for fuzzy concepts like “took the world by storm, for 2 weeks”, even if a couple thousand people are still excited about it 2 years later.
  - dcow 3y ago
    It’s the original definition of a meme.

Lockal 3y ago

Last time I saw this cycle with EmDrive - some guy created EmDrive (2001) - author argued for decades that EmDrive violates Newton’s Laws - author filled a group of patents, launched a new company "Universal Propulsion Ltd." (2016). But by this point, DOZENS of independent researchers had already proven that EmDrive doesn't create thrust. - NASA and DoD and a lot of smaller companies just threw money away testing something that can't even work in theory - "there was no fraud" (allegedly), all blamed on measurement errors - mainstream exposure was pure hype, it was just electromagnetic/thermal effect, the research has yielded ABSOLUTELY NOTHING new.

hliyan 3y ago
This is exactly right. The only difference here is that EmDrive straight up violated a law of physics, whereas high-temp superconductivity was just a matter of degree (pun intended). I was somewhat skeptical of EmDrive, but was very hopeful about LK99. Alas, it was not to be. We'll have to take the slow road to room temperature superconductors.