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Whether the CFO leaving is a "canary" or not, I think there is ample evidence that Tesla's overall value proposition is grossly misaligned with its current valu

Whether the CFO leaving is a "canary" or not, I think there is ample evidence that Tesla's overall value proposition is grossly misaligned with its current valuation (futures priced-in). I would not blame people for using this as an excuse to weaken their positions on Tesla. I am invested and have been for almost a decade, for the record.

wonderwonder 3y ago
How much of Tesla do you think is Musk? For example, if Zuck choked Musk to death in a cage fight, what do you think would happen to the stock? Obviously the odds of this happening are close to 0 but after investing heavily in Tesla I came to the conclusion (perhaps wrongly) that a good deal of the value in tesla stock is tied to Musk. He could get hit by a bus tomorrow. So I sold and put it all in an index fund that still holds tesla but on a more diluted basis. Just curious about your outlook on it.
- fbdab103 3y ago
  I could see it cutting both ways. Some people love Musk and assume Tesla is only supported by the sweat of his brow. Others view him as an impediment to making good business decisions. Hard to judge which camp is bigger. On the gripping hand, I personally believe Tesla is over-valued and it only takes a watershed moment for investors to determine the emperor is wearing no clothes which could cause the stock to plummet.
- ChuckMcM 3y ago
  The more I see of Musk on Twitter the lower I judge his future impact at Tesla. Tesla going forward is going to have to grow its customer facing side and Musk seems unsuited to solving problems that involve humans and emotions. Could be completely wrong of course, often am. That said, I too divested myself 100%.
  - specialist 3y ago
    Having 𝕏 distract Musk may prove to be a boon for both SpaceX and Tesla. From the cheap seats, it looks like both have terrific strategies and now need to be left alone to execute.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - Zigurd 3y ago
      True in the abstract, but both are saddled with a Musk project that will continue for years no matter what: Tesla is going to have a major flop and recall liability with Cybertruck. Starship is a space Spruce Goose.
  - pstuart 3y ago
    What confuses me is that Musk's behavior is abhorrent to the "typical" Tesla buyer.
    - heavyset_go 3y ago
      He's courting a new customer base for the Cybertruck.
      - pstuart 3y ago
        Not to go too far into the weeds of second guessing him, but I don't think that's courting a new market -- it seems to be the mask coming off.
        concordDance 3y ago
        More falling in with the wrong crowd.
        panick21_ 3y ago
        Selling a product into the most profitable market in the automotive industry is 'the mask coming off'? What are you even talking about?
        pstuart 3y ago
        The market for electric cars was primarily amongst "the liberals". You know, treehuggers, whale lovers, etc? That was a key selling point for the vehicles -- save the planet! I'm well aware of the market segmentation and where the big ticket items are, thank you very much. Yes, he'll likely get more cybertruck buyers due to fandom but there's a lot of non-truck buyers that are going to rethink giving money to him.
        heavyset_go 3y ago
        I agree in that this is who he always was, but he's also deliberately going out his way to publicly appeal to certain types of people.
  - moralestapia 3y ago
    You can say whatever you want but 𝕏 DAUs are still strong and going up :^).
- bluefishinit 3y ago
  > How much of Tesla do you think is Musk? Tesla's valuation is mostly Musk. "Infinite demand", "full self-driving"... the SEC should have cracked down on him a long time ago but they seem unwilling to do so. Ultimately reality will win out and Tesla's stock will realign. That hasn't happened because Musk has an army of fanboys he can use to pump the stock, apparent ins at the SEC and a very aggressive call buying program on Tesla. I don't think anyone other than Musk could get away with pumping the stock like he has, so the valuation is mostly dependent on him.
  - agumonkey 3y ago
    You think it's all games ? when I see a panel of videos(sandy munroe may be fan boy, I dont know, his reviews seems to be detailed at least), there are regularly a few things that seems impressive. Competition seems to have difficulties catching up, chargers are improving, single cast car body seems to be a big benefit for factory simplification, they still had the best engine (and the adaptive reluctance idea seemed to be, again, ahead of anything else on market). New models are said to now be designed to be robotics friendly from day 1 which would again reduce costs. The embedded computer is said to, again, be years ahead of other brands. The cars have a lot of defects (windshield, doors, seats) but on the EV side of things .. they seem to keep driving the market. And I'm not much of a fanboy .. especially since musk started to push beta SDV on the roads (and the twitter shipwreck is not helping)
    - bluefishinit 3y ago
      > You think it's all games? Yes, because I'm talking about the valuation which is completely divorced from fundamentals and entirely based on Musk's hype of non-existent products like robotaxis and the cyber truck. They're a small, boutique car manufacturer with a $769B market cap. To put things into perspective, GM has a market cap of $51.5B.
      - panick21_ 3y ago
        Cybertruck is literally in production. The idea that its 'not real' is some conspiracy theory nonsense. Yes it was late, but claiming it doesn't exist is just stupid. They are not actually 'small' anymore, they are at a 2 million a year run rate and growing. > GM has a market cap of $51.5B Yes and have you considered why that is? Look at how many vehicles GM sold in 2008 and then now, it continues to go down. They are retreating from markets. Their EV division has been a complete failure with their ultium platform barley producing a few 1000 cars. They are surviving because of ICE SUV/Pickups in the US market but have basically no chance to do much beyond that. And that market is under massive attack over the next half decade.
- lyapunova 3y ago
  I have never let the existence of Elon swing my decision making too much one way or the other. As others have pointed out, he has some qualities that making him a major asset and some that make him a liability. Since you asked specifically about Elon, I think he is best at launching companies via the SV playbook, but not as well-suited for sustaining mid-to-latestage companies that aim to serve as industry cornerstones (with some exception allotted for SpaceX). The pattern I have seen is the underlying layers of the companies he spearheads early on typically erode due to rapid accumulation of both technical and cultural debt.
- Spooky23 3y ago
  Musk is willing to make reckless decisions and avoid expensive complications like following the law. A normal car executive would never just break the law re direct sales etc. I’d guess he’s becoming less valuable as the company is larger. Twitter is the textbook example of the downside of ruling by whim.
  - garciasn 3y ago
    You’re right. VW, for example, would NEVER have broken the law by pushing for detection of emissions tests and changing the engine’s outputs when in this mode vs when it was on the road. Never!
  - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
    A normal car executive wouldn't take all the risks that got them to where they are right now, you know, having the #1 selling car in the world.
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    > A normal car executive would never just break the law You are being sarcastic right?
- taylodl 3y ago
  Quick - name the CEO of Toyota. Can't do it? How about Volkswagen? Still no? These are the two largest car companies in the world. Honestly, I think Tesla would be better off if Musk were to go away - at this point. Musk really is the perennial entrepreneur. He's a great idea man, and he can get a company built and make that idea come to life. But he can't run a business. I think Musk has overstayed his welcome at Tesla. He did it - he took EV's from the niche that hardly anybody paid attention to and made them mainstream. Bravo! I never would have thought he could have done it - but he did. Now it's becoming clear it's time for him to step away and tackle another problem. Otherwise he risks interfering with his own success.
  - aeternum 3y ago
    Dojo could be a gamechanger for AI if they can create the right compiler tooling. Optimus also has potential but needs a personality like Musk's to bring it to fruition. Without him both of the projects will likely be abandoned.
    - elkos 3y ago
      I'm not familiar with Dojo and Optimus, are these some upcoming Tesla car lines like the Cybertruck?
      - aeternum 3y ago
        Nope
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    Is there any evidence that Musk has overstayed his welcome based on any actual numbers. It seems the me the only evidence is that people now like him less, and somehow that now makes him bad at being CEO. Sorry, don't really see the connection.
    - nickthegreek 3y ago
      I test drove a Tesla in early 2022, and was set to buy one. I am no longer interested in a Tesla in the slightest. The reason why is Elon Musk's behavior. Not a single person in my friend group wants a Tesla now.
- Zigurd 3y ago
  Tesla's valuation is likely to sharply decline with or without Musk because it is way out of line. If you want to look prescient, pick either choice: A. Musk leadership tarnishes Tesla B. Musk distracted by Twitter, Tesla falls to Earth Both will be true.
panick21_ 3y ago
> I think there is ample evidence that Tesla's overall value proposition is grossly misaligned with its current valuation And yet somehow many analysis and major investors don't seem to disagree with you. I have seen this position on HN for a while now, its always 'totally clear and logic' that Tesla is overvalued. But if you go back and snapshot all those cases, often not true. You can certainty make a case both ways regarding Tesla.

wonderwonder 3y ago

How much of Tesla do you think is Musk? For example, if Zuck choked Musk to death in a cage fight, what do you think would happen to the stock? Obviously the odds of this happening are close to 0 but after investing heavily in Tesla I came to the conclusion (perhaps wrongly) that a good deal of the value in tesla stock is tied to Musk. He could get hit by a bus tomorrow. So I sold and put it all in an index fund that still holds tesla but on a more diluted basis. Just curious about your outlook on it.

fbdab103 3y ago
I could see it cutting both ways. Some people love Musk and assume Tesla is only supported by the sweat of his brow. Others view him as an impediment to making good business decisions. Hard to judge which camp is bigger. On the gripping hand, I personally believe Tesla is over-valued and it only takes a watershed moment for investors to determine the emperor is wearing no clothes which could cause the stock to plummet.
ChuckMcM 3y ago
The more I see of Musk on Twitter the lower I judge his future impact at Tesla. Tesla going forward is going to have to grow its customer facing side and Musk seems unsuited to solving problems that involve humans and emotions. Could be completely wrong of course, often am. That said, I too divested myself 100%.
- specialist 3y ago
  Having 𝕏 distract Musk may prove to be a boon for both SpaceX and Tesla. From the cheap seats, it looks like both have terrific strategies and now need to be left alone to execute.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - Zigurd 3y ago
    True in the abstract, but both are saddled with a Musk project that will continue for years no matter what: Tesla is going to have a major flop and recall liability with Cybertruck. Starship is a space Spruce Goose.
- pstuart 3y ago
  What confuses me is that Musk's behavior is abhorrent to the "typical" Tesla buyer.
  - heavyset_go 3y ago
    He's courting a new customer base for the Cybertruck.
    - pstuart 3y ago
      Not to go too far into the weeds of second guessing him, but I don't think that's courting a new market -- it seems to be the mask coming off.
      - concordDance 3y ago
        More falling in with the wrong crowd.
      - panick21_ 3y ago
        Selling a product into the most profitable market in the automotive industry is 'the mask coming off'? What are you even talking about?
        pstuart 3y ago
        The market for electric cars was primarily amongst "the liberals". You know, treehuggers, whale lovers, etc? That was a key selling point for the vehicles -- save the planet! I'm well aware of the market segmentation and where the big ticket items are, thank you very much. Yes, he'll likely get more cybertruck buyers due to fandom but there's a lot of non-truck buyers that are going to rethink giving money to him.
      - heavyset_go 3y ago
        I agree in that this is who he always was, but he's also deliberately going out his way to publicly appeal to certain types of people.
- moralestapia 3y ago
  You can say whatever you want but 𝕏 DAUs are still strong and going up :^).
bluefishinit 3y ago
> How much of Tesla do you think is Musk? Tesla's valuation is mostly Musk. "Infinite demand", "full self-driving"... the SEC should have cracked down on him a long time ago but they seem unwilling to do so. Ultimately reality will win out and Tesla's stock will realign. That hasn't happened because Musk has an army of fanboys he can use to pump the stock, apparent ins at the SEC and a very aggressive call buying program on Tesla. I don't think anyone other than Musk could get away with pumping the stock like he has, so the valuation is mostly dependent on him.
- agumonkey 3y ago
  You think it's all games ? when I see a panel of videos(sandy munroe may be fan boy, I dont know, his reviews seems to be detailed at least), there are regularly a few things that seems impressive. Competition seems to have difficulties catching up, chargers are improving, single cast car body seems to be a big benefit for factory simplification, they still had the best engine (and the adaptive reluctance idea seemed to be, again, ahead of anything else on market). New models are said to now be designed to be robotics friendly from day 1 which would again reduce costs. The embedded computer is said to, again, be years ahead of other brands. The cars have a lot of defects (windshield, doors, seats) but on the EV side of things .. they seem to keep driving the market. And I'm not much of a fanboy .. especially since musk started to push beta SDV on the roads (and the twitter shipwreck is not helping)
  - bluefishinit 3y ago
    > You think it's all games? Yes, because I'm talking about the valuation which is completely divorced from fundamentals and entirely based on Musk's hype of non-existent products like robotaxis and the cyber truck. They're a small, boutique car manufacturer with a $769B market cap. To put things into perspective, GM has a market cap of $51.5B.
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      Cybertruck is literally in production. The idea that its 'not real' is some conspiracy theory nonsense. Yes it was late, but claiming it doesn't exist is just stupid. They are not actually 'small' anymore, they are at a 2 million a year run rate and growing. > GM has a market cap of $51.5B Yes and have you considered why that is? Look at how many vehicles GM sold in 2008 and then now, it continues to go down. They are retreating from markets. Their EV division has been a complete failure with their ultium platform barley producing a few 1000 cars. They are surviving because of ICE SUV/Pickups in the US market but have basically no chance to do much beyond that. And that market is under massive attack over the next half decade.
lyapunova 3y ago
I have never let the existence of Elon swing my decision making too much one way or the other. As others have pointed out, he has some qualities that making him a major asset and some that make him a liability. Since you asked specifically about Elon, I think he is best at launching companies via the SV playbook, but not as well-suited for sustaining mid-to-latestage companies that aim to serve as industry cornerstones (with some exception allotted for SpaceX). The pattern I have seen is the underlying layers of the companies he spearheads early on typically erode due to rapid accumulation of both technical and cultural debt.
Spooky23 3y ago
Musk is willing to make reckless decisions and avoid expensive complications like following the law. A normal car executive would never just break the law re direct sales etc. I’d guess he’s becoming less valuable as the company is larger. Twitter is the textbook example of the downside of ruling by whim.
- garciasn 3y ago
  You’re right. VW, for example, would NEVER have broken the law by pushing for detection of emissions tests and changing the engine’s outputs when in this mode vs when it was on the road. Never!
- DoesntMatter22 3y ago
  A normal car executive wouldn't take all the risks that got them to where they are right now, you know, having the #1 selling car in the world.
- panick21_ 3y ago
  > A normal car executive would never just break the law You are being sarcastic right?
taylodl 3y ago
Quick - name the CEO of Toyota. Can't do it? How about Volkswagen? Still no? These are the two largest car companies in the world. Honestly, I think Tesla would be better off if Musk were to go away - at this point. Musk really is the perennial entrepreneur. He's a great idea man, and he can get a company built and make that idea come to life. But he can't run a business. I think Musk has overstayed his welcome at Tesla. He did it - he took EV's from the niche that hardly anybody paid attention to and made them mainstream. Bravo! I never would have thought he could have done it - but he did. Now it's becoming clear it's time for him to step away and tackle another problem. Otherwise he risks interfering with his own success.
- aeternum 3y ago
  Dojo could be a gamechanger for AI if they can create the right compiler tooling. Optimus also has potential but needs a personality like Musk's to bring it to fruition. Without him both of the projects will likely be abandoned.
  - elkos 3y ago
    I'm not familiar with Dojo and Optimus, are these some upcoming Tesla car lines like the Cybertruck?
    - aeternum 3y ago
      Nope
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Is there any evidence that Musk has overstayed his welcome based on any actual numbers. It seems the me the only evidence is that people now like him less, and somehow that now makes him bad at being CEO. Sorry, don't really see the connection.
  - nickthegreek 3y ago
    I test drove a Tesla in early 2022, and was set to buy one. I am no longer interested in a Tesla in the slightest. The reason why is Elon Musk's behavior. Not a single person in my friend group wants a Tesla now.
Zigurd 3y ago
Tesla's valuation is likely to sharply decline with or without Musk because it is way out of line. If you want to look prescient, pick either choice: A. Musk leadership tarnishes Tesla B. Musk distracted by Twitter, Tesla falls to Earth Both will be true.

panick21_ 3y ago

> I think there is ample evidence that Tesla's overall value proposition is grossly misaligned with its current valuation And yet somehow many analysis and major investors don't seem to disagree with you. I have seen this position on HN for a while now, its always 'totally clear and logic' that Tesla is overvalued. But if you go back and snapshot all those cases, often not true. You can certainty make a case both ways regarding Tesla.