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It's hard for me to comprehend the odds that a meteorite would hit the Sphinx on the nose. I know that the probability is higher that a meteorite would hit som

It's hard for me to comprehend the odds that a meteorite would hit the Sphinx on the nose. I know that the probability is higher that a meteorite would hit something of great cultural significance, and that perhaps the broken nose led to some of that significance. But it still seems really, really unlikely. Isn't it a lot more likely that something routine cause the damage, and that a story was made up afterward?

binarymax 3y ago
Isn't the probability of a meteorite hitting the Sphynx the same as the meteorite hitting anything else on the planet?
- robga 3y ago
  Spatial flux studies show they are a little more likely to hit the equatorial rather than polar regions due to the elliptic distribution of the source material. https://ukantarcticmeteorites.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/new-paper-the-spatial-flux-of-earths-meteorite-falls-found-via-antarctic-data/ https://ukantarcticmeteorites.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/new-p...
- wthomp 3y ago
  Yes exactly. Which means it's extremely, extremely low. Even though the probably of a meteorite hitting somewhere is high, the probability of hitting somewhere in particular is tiny.
  - dividedbyzero 3y ago
    There are a lot of monuments that would feel similar if they got hit (the Taj Mahal, Notre Dame cathedral, the Statue of Liberty, Machu Picchu, Stonehenge, large parts of the Vatican, the Forbidden City, ...), and the odds of any one of them getting hit should be quite a bit higher. The Sphinx is on the smaller end of qualifying monuments, but it had a lot more time to get hit than most. A meteorite striking the site of Notre Dame in 1000 B.C. wouldn't have had the same ... impact.
  - lumost 3y ago
    You can also further refine this. - "What's the probability that a meteor hits an object of cultural significance?" -> vastly lower than the probability that the meteor hits something of non-cultural significance. - "What's the probability that a meteor hits a given object of cultural significance?" -> Proportional to object size + age. Maybe the sphinx isn't a bad candidate for the only object of cultural significance impacted by a meteor? Still seems unusually improbable however.
  - angiosperm 3y ago
    Right. A meteorite strike on the Sphinx is both extremely unlikely considered as an explanation for damage, and also entirely possible given evidence that it occurred. The same reasoning applies to two UUIDs or Git hashes matching by accident: of negligible probability, yet easily proven if it happens.
    - ffhhttt 3y ago
      > given evidence that it occurred Is there any evidence?
      - angiosperm 3y ago
        Nothing compelling that I know of. Other meteorite strikes being described using the same language might count. A record of having used the particular meteorite in religious apparatus, more so. It is the sort of thing that would have been recorded, but records are spotty. I think the headdress was supposed to have been covered in gold leaf, which might have attracted lightning strikes. Just cracking from normal weathering and falling off is the most likely cause, though. It seems like a thing that they would have liked to blame on something dramatic like a thunderbolt.
  - _yb2s 3y ago
    When you're looking at hindsight, it is the "somewhere" that matters here, so it's not unlikely at all. There are a massive number of interesting things around the world that would be "surprising" to have been hit by a meteorite. If one of them was in the past, this isn't as unlikely as it seems. Regardless, I realize other posters linked to pretty good evidence that this isn't what happened.
  - edgyquant 3y ago
    Things with a low probability of happening happen all the time. There’s zero reason to write things off because the “odds” are low.
    - ffhhttt 3y ago
      There is close to zero reason to consider them too without any real evidence.
      - edgyquant 3y ago
        The whole point of this comment thread is that there does seem to be some evidence it happened. The evidence is just being written off here because the odds are low.
angiosperm 3y ago
I don't think anybody believes the thunderbolt, whatever it was, knocked off the Sphinx's nose. (Or are you speaking figuratively?) The stela cites the back of the headdress. It is common to blame Napoleonic cannoneers for damage to its face, but apparently that is slander. We know that early Christians were very fond of knocking the nose off of anything that might attract offerings. I don't know of any surviving drawings that show the nose intact.
- RajT88 3y ago
  Another option is simple vandalism. Wikipedia mentions one archeologist thinks so: > Mark Lehner says that while it is not known when or by whom the Sphinx's nose was broken off, careful examination shows that somebody used long rods or chisels to purposefully do so. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sphinx_of_Giza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sphinx_of_Giza
  - angiosperm 3y ago
    Knocking noses off statuary was a favorite pastime of early Christians. Without a nose, the spirit occupying the statue would be unable to take in the smoke from the offering. They also broke off right hands for similar reasons. The activity is called "iconoclasm". These early Christians ardently believed in such spirits, which they considered demons, and meant to deprive them of sustenance; and more importantly, to deprive competing priests of places to operate. Ancient Egyptians also vandalized more-ancient statuary, but they usually preferred to chisel out the attached name and carve their current king's name in its place so his ka would get the benefit of offerings. Ramses II was especially known for "tagging" ancient statuary; egyptologists, oddly, routinely accept such tags as proof he was responsible for the item.
    - wsintra2022 3y ago
      I also heard that white Europeans knocked the noses off because they had African noses. At the time the westerners thought of Africans as savages and didn’t believe that people of African descent could build such cultural attifa y’a so they would lop the noses off before shipping back to Europe. I think Akala talks about this in his Oxford address.
SoftTalker 3y ago
At the Field Museum in Chicago, there is a display about meteorites. One part of it shows a meteorite that hit a garage, went through the roof, through the roof of a car parked inside, through the floor of the car, then bounced back up and lodged in the rear seat. Extremely unlikely, but it happened.
- boplicity 3y ago
  Every specific real thing that happens is as equally unlikely as everything else. It's just our interpretation that makes certain things seem unusual, when, in fact, they're as usual as everything else.
  - ffhhttt 3y ago
    That doesn’t seem to make a whole lot sense. A meteorite hitting it is one of the most unlikely things that could ever happen to any given garage.
- cpursley 3y ago
  Wild! What are the stats on them hitting humans?
  - pajko 3y ago
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/160209-me...

binarymax 3y ago

Isn't the probability of a meteorite hitting the Sphynx the same as the meteorite hitting anything else on the planet?

robga 3y ago
Spatial flux studies show they are a little more likely to hit the equatorial rather than polar regions due to the elliptic distribution of the source material. https://ukantarcticmeteorites.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/new-paper-the-spatial-flux-of-earths-meteorite-falls-found-via-antarctic-data/ https://ukantarcticmeteorites.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/new-p...
wthomp 3y ago
Yes exactly. Which means it's extremely, extremely low. Even though the probably of a meteorite hitting somewhere is high, the probability of hitting somewhere in particular is tiny.
- dividedbyzero 3y ago
  There are a lot of monuments that would feel similar if they got hit (the Taj Mahal, Notre Dame cathedral, the Statue of Liberty, Machu Picchu, Stonehenge, large parts of the Vatican, the Forbidden City, ...), and the odds of any one of them getting hit should be quite a bit higher. The Sphinx is on the smaller end of qualifying monuments, but it had a lot more time to get hit than most. A meteorite striking the site of Notre Dame in 1000 B.C. wouldn't have had the same ... impact.
- lumost 3y ago
  You can also further refine this. - "What's the probability that a meteor hits an object of cultural significance?" -> vastly lower than the probability that the meteor hits something of non-cultural significance. - "What's the probability that a meteor hits a given object of cultural significance?" -> Proportional to object size + age. Maybe the sphinx isn't a bad candidate for the only object of cultural significance impacted by a meteor? Still seems unusually improbable however.
- angiosperm 3y ago
  Right. A meteorite strike on the Sphinx is both extremely unlikely considered as an explanation for damage, and also entirely possible given evidence that it occurred. The same reasoning applies to two UUIDs or Git hashes matching by accident: of negligible probability, yet easily proven if it happens.
  - ffhhttt 3y ago
    > given evidence that it occurred Is there any evidence?
    - angiosperm 3y ago
      Nothing compelling that I know of. Other meteorite strikes being described using the same language might count. A record of having used the particular meteorite in religious apparatus, more so. It is the sort of thing that would have been recorded, but records are spotty. I think the headdress was supposed to have been covered in gold leaf, which might have attracted lightning strikes. Just cracking from normal weathering and falling off is the most likely cause, though. It seems like a thing that they would have liked to blame on something dramatic like a thunderbolt.
- _yb2s 3y ago
  When you're looking at hindsight, it is the "somewhere" that matters here, so it's not unlikely at all. There are a massive number of interesting things around the world that would be "surprising" to have been hit by a meteorite. If one of them was in the past, this isn't as unlikely as it seems. Regardless, I realize other posters linked to pretty good evidence that this isn't what happened.
- edgyquant 3y ago
  Things with a low probability of happening happen all the time. There’s zero reason to write things off because the “odds” are low.
  - ffhhttt 3y ago
    There is close to zero reason to consider them too without any real evidence.
    - edgyquant 3y ago
      The whole point of this comment thread is that there does seem to be some evidence it happened. The evidence is just being written off here because the odds are low.

angiosperm 3y ago

I don't think anybody believes the thunderbolt, whatever it was, knocked off the Sphinx's nose. (Or are you speaking figuratively?) The stela cites the back of the headdress. It is common to blame Napoleonic cannoneers for damage to its face, but apparently that is slander. We know that early Christians were very fond of knocking the nose off of anything that might attract offerings. I don't know of any surviving drawings that show the nose intact.

RajT88 3y ago
Another option is simple vandalism. Wikipedia mentions one archeologist thinks so: > Mark Lehner says that while it is not known when or by whom the Sphinx's nose was broken off, careful examination shows that somebody used long rods or chisels to purposefully do so. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sphinx_of_Giza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sphinx_of_Giza
- angiosperm 3y ago
  Knocking noses off statuary was a favorite pastime of early Christians. Without a nose, the spirit occupying the statue would be unable to take in the smoke from the offering. They also broke off right hands for similar reasons. The activity is called "iconoclasm". These early Christians ardently believed in such spirits, which they considered demons, and meant to deprive them of sustenance; and more importantly, to deprive competing priests of places to operate. Ancient Egyptians also vandalized more-ancient statuary, but they usually preferred to chisel out the attached name and carve their current king's name in its place so his ka would get the benefit of offerings. Ramses II was especially known for "tagging" ancient statuary; egyptologists, oddly, routinely accept such tags as proof he was responsible for the item.
  - wsintra2022 3y ago
    I also heard that white Europeans knocked the noses off because they had African noses. At the time the westerners thought of Africans as savages and didn’t believe that people of African descent could build such cultural attifa y’a so they would lop the noses off before shipping back to Europe. I think Akala talks about this in his Oxford address.

SoftTalker 3y ago

At the Field Museum in Chicago, there is a display about meteorites. One part of it shows a meteorite that hit a garage, went through the roof, through the roof of a car parked inside, through the floor of the car, then bounced back up and lodged in the rear seat. Extremely unlikely, but it happened.

boplicity 3y ago
Every specific real thing that happens is as equally unlikely as everything else. It's just our interpretation that makes certain things seem unusual, when, in fact, they're as usual as everything else.
- ffhhttt 3y ago
  That doesn’t seem to make a whole lot sense. A meteorite hitting it is one of the most unlikely things that could ever happen to any given garage.
cpursley 3y ago
Wild! What are the stats on them hitting humans?
- pajko 3y ago
  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/160209-me...