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> African Americans commit about half the murders in the US not disagreeing, but you've also committed the statistical cardinal sin of survivorship bias here a
by chii 3y ago
> African Americans commit about half the murders in the US
not disagreeing, but you've also committed the statistical cardinal sin of survivorship bias here as well. It's not half the murders, it's half the _prosecuted_ murders. You don't know how many are not caught or known.
- tdehnel 3y agoSo it could very well be more than half.
- flangola7 3y agoDoubtful. Whites have more wealth and better lawyers.
- talldatethrow 3y agoOh yes, thousands of murders a year dismissed by clever lawyers! Thousands!
- shadowgovt 3y agoThe scarier possibility is "thousands of wrongful convictions due to ineffective representation." ... scarier and hard to discount.
- chii 3y agoAnd it is imho better for 9 murderers to walk free and prevent 1 wrongful conviction, than to have 1 wrongful conviction to keep 9 murderers off the streets.
- talldatethrow 3y agoUnknown would be its own category, which means some of those unknown might actually make the African American stats even worse if they were attributed.
- chii 3y agoIt's unknown, so the OP's original argument of maths: > you could argue racism... Or math. is not supported by the purported statistic of "half the murders are by blacks".
- HWR_14 3y agoAnd you left out another major issue. It's half of the homicides convicted as murders. People pleading guilty to negligent homicide or claiming self defense (or simply winning their case) aren't included. Which are outcomes associated with good lawyers, which is associated with wealth, which is highly correlated to race.
- talldatethrow 3y agoClaiming self defense doesn't change the charge from murder unless you are found not to have murdered the person.
- HWR_14 3y agoClaiming self defense doesn't. Successfully claiming self defense means that you did not murder the person.
- Arainach 3y agoSuccessfully making that claim is associated with expensive lawyers rather than overworked public defenders.
- fedreserved 3y ago[dead]
- throwaway894345 3y agoVictimization surveys also corroborate these proportions at least for attempted murders and other violent crimes.
- Daz1 3y agoThe clearance rate for black victims of murder in black neighborhoods (where the perpetrator is likely to also be black) is the lowest out of all categories, which makes your point actually work against you
- SamReidHughes 3y agoIt's not prosecuted murders. The baseline stats aren't built on that number, they're built on the race of the perp when known.