3 ms·
What’s the track record of open prediction markets (no barrier to join) vs super predictor markets (have some requirements - be it credentials, proven expertise
by yellow_postit 3y ago
What’s the track record of open prediction markets (no barrier to join) vs super predictor markets (have some requirements - be it credentials, proven expertise, or track records)?
I keep seeing markets like this posted for LK99 and personally find it unconvincing more than a sentiment analysis of the twitter and news hype cycle.
- collective-intl 3y agoThe track record is pretty good, even including a bunch of small markets with few traders: https://manifold.markets/calibration https://manifold.markets/calibration