3 ms·
Currently 39% sure. https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
by sillysaurusx 3y ago
Currently 39% sure. https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
- yellow_postit 3y agoWhat’s the track record of open prediction markets (no barrier to join) vs super predictor markets (have some requirements - be it credentials, proven expertise, or track records)? I keep seeing markets like this posted for LK99 and personally find it unconvincing more than a sentiment analysis of the twitter and news hype cycle.
- collective-intl 3y agoThe track record is pretty good, even including a bunch of small markets with few traders: https://manifold.markets/calibration https://manifold.markets/calibration