4 ms·
So how sure are we that this isn't yet another in a long line of disappointments?
by pmoriarty 3y ago
So how sure are we that this isn't yet another in a long line of disappointments?
- sillysaurusx 3y agoCurrently 39% sure. https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
- yellow_postit 3y agoWhat’s the track record of open prediction markets (no barrier to join) vs super predictor markets (have some requirements - be it credentials, proven expertise, or track records)? I keep seeing markets like this posted for LK99 and personally find it unconvincing more than a sentiment analysis of the twitter and news hype cycle.
- collective-intl 3y agoThe track record is pretty good, even including a bunch of small markets with few traders: https://manifold.markets/calibration https://manifold.markets/calibration
- marginalia_nu 3y agoWe're not, and don't think there's a physicist in the world who wouldn't advice tempering expectations at this point. Yes it would be exciting if it's the real deal, but it's also far from the first candidate we've seen and so far they've never been replicated.