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We had a recession and then they redefined it. We also still have a great chance of entering a recession later this year.

spankalee 3y ago
They did not redefine it.
- jtaft 3y ago
  Didn’t they though? Something about two quarters consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth was the original definition, it happened, and they said recession means something else.
  - fnordpiglet 3y ago
    When did it happen? https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-fr... “They” haven’t changed any definitions, I don’t think there’s even a “they,” and there was not a recession by any definition of recession. The fed tried hard to induce one because of wage growth and inflation, but failed to do so. Companies in tech specifically fired a ton of people in preparation, but that doesn’t make a recession - just bad business judgement. Tech leadership has never been super sharp to begin with.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions in the USA. Always have. If they don't say it's a recession, it isn't one. ------ What is consistent is that the economists there declare recessions way too late in practice. I think they declared a recession dated in 2007 in the year 2009, when we were already recovering. So what we have are a bunch of internet bloggers who try to call a recession before the experts. But all that happens in practice is that the bloggers call a recession every 3 months since 2010 hoping that they're correct today. ----- If we are in a recession today, we will know for sure maybe next year. That's just how it works on this issue, and it's premature to call it any sooner.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > Something about two quarters consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth was the original definition Nope, that was never the official definition, that was a convenient approximate rule of thumb.
    - peepeepoopoo23 3y ago
      [flagged]
- rufus_foreman 3y ago
  "What Senator Clinton has said is that of course economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth" Brian Deese, 2008 "As Secretary Yellen said on Sunday, two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of a recession" Brian Deese, 2022 Brian Deese, in 2022, was Joe Biden’s National Economic Council Director. That's not redefining it? Are you redefining redefine?
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    Senator Clinton, who was not and is not an economist, was simply wrong. Contrary to the “Hillary was right about everything” folks, that’s actually not an uncommon thing for her. > That's not redefining it? No, someone getting the definition wrong and someone else getting it right is not a redefinition.
  - DonsDiscountGas 3y ago
    A) Many words have multiple definitions, different people may use different definitions at different times. Any sentence that starts with "the definition of..." implies a uniqueness which likely doesn't exist in natural language. B) Many people define recessions as you said, as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Deese 2008 was one, apparently, and Deese 2022 was not. C) The US commerce department started using the NBER to set recessions in the 1960s. > A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales" [1] So I guess Deese redefined what Deese thought (as people sometimes do over 14 years) but neither the NBER, nor economists at large, did any redefinition. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/07/27/who-decides-recession/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/07/27/who-deci... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Re...

spankalee 3y ago

They did not redefine it.

jtaft 3y ago
Didn’t they though? Something about two quarters consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth was the original definition, it happened, and they said recession means something else.
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  When did it happen? https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-fr... “They” haven’t changed any definitions, I don’t think there’s even a “they,” and there was not a recession by any definition of recession. The fed tried hard to induce one because of wage growth and inflation, but failed to do so. Companies in tech specifically fired a ton of people in preparation, but that doesn’t make a recession - just bad business judgement. Tech leadership has never been super sharp to begin with.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions in the USA. Always have. If they don't say it's a recession, it isn't one. ------ What is consistent is that the economists there declare recessions way too late in practice. I think they declared a recession dated in 2007 in the year 2009, when we were already recovering. So what we have are a bunch of internet bloggers who try to call a recession before the experts. But all that happens in practice is that the bloggers call a recession every 3 months since 2010 hoping that they're correct today. ----- If we are in a recession today, we will know for sure maybe next year. That's just how it works on this issue, and it's premature to call it any sooner.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > Something about two quarters consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth was the original definition Nope, that was never the official definition, that was a convenient approximate rule of thumb.
  - peepeepoopoo23 3y ago
    [flagged]
rufus_foreman 3y ago
"What Senator Clinton has said is that of course economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth" Brian Deese, 2008 "As Secretary Yellen said on Sunday, two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of a recession" Brian Deese, 2022 Brian Deese, in 2022, was Joe Biden’s National Economic Council Director. That's not redefining it? Are you redefining redefine?
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  Senator Clinton, who was not and is not an economist, was simply wrong. Contrary to the “Hillary was right about everything” folks, that’s actually not an uncommon thing for her. > That's not redefining it? No, someone getting the definition wrong and someone else getting it right is not a redefinition.
- DonsDiscountGas 3y ago
  A) Many words have multiple definitions, different people may use different definitions at different times. Any sentence that starts with "the definition of..." implies a uniqueness which likely doesn't exist in natural language. B) Many people define recessions as you said, as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Deese 2008 was one, apparently, and Deese 2022 was not. C) The US commerce department started using the NBER to set recessions in the 1960s. > A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales" [1] So I guess Deese redefined what Deese thought (as people sometimes do over 14 years) but neither the NBER, nor economists at large, did any redefinition. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/07/27/who-decides-recession/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/07/27/who-deci... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Re...