3 ms·

What prediction markets are you looking at? Are there any concrete examples of these markets being accurate, or just a venue for gambling addicts to feel smart?

refulgentis 3y ago
One prediction market company spent a day spamming e v e r y tweet with a link to their own stuff, so it's adopted a meme-y link to LK-99 but it's honestly unrelated other than a clever marketing campaign
- callalex 3y ago
  My question is also broader than LK-99, and my point still stands.
  - refulgentis 3y ago
    And my reply still stands, if not read for signs of an adversary, you would read a comment that reinforces (B) of the (A) and (B) you offered people to reply with. Its for gambling addicts
    - yreg 3y ago
      If it's for gambling addicts who know very little then it shouldn't be that difficult to make money on it (not necessarily on LK99, but in general). Either the markets have more insight (swarm intelligence or agents who know more leveraging their knowledge) than me – and in that case they give me some information – or they have less insight and in that case I should play them.
      - 55555 3y ago
        Does anyone know which real money prediction market is deepest? The ones I see everyone referencing are fake money
        yreg 3y ago
        I know only about this one https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...
    - P_I_Staker 3y ago
      You're reply falls like a house of brick with no mortars.
ChadNauseam 3y ago
> Are there any concrete examples of these markets being accurate There are prediction markets for US elections, which tend to be pretty good. In general you should only expect markets with high liquidity to be very hard to beat, and the US elections have relatively low liquidity, so IIRC Nate Silver still outperforms them (but only by a small amount). The reason you should expect high-liquidity markets to be hard to beat is that, if they were easy to beat, you could easily get rich by betting on them. So the common-sense idea of "there's no easy way to get rich" implies that they cannot be easy to beat. The main exception to this principle is when there's a huge amount of money that intentionally places "bad" bets on the market, usually because they want to hedge against something. (e.g. I don't want this to happen, so I'll bet that it will happen, that way at least if it does happen I'll make some money.) This is why the TIPS spread, which can be interpreted as a prediction market for US inflation, consistently over-predicts inflation. Entities that stand to lose from high inflation use TIPS to hedge, which causes the TIPS spread to be too high. This could be corrected with better market design, but the treasury hasn't done that yet.

refulgentis 3y ago

One prediction market company spent a day spamming e v e r y tweet with a link to their own stuff, so it's adopted a meme-y link to LK-99 but it's honestly unrelated other than a clever marketing campaign

callalex 3y ago
My question is also broader than LK-99, and my point still stands.
- refulgentis 3y ago
  And my reply still stands, if not read for signs of an adversary, you would read a comment that reinforces (B) of the (A) and (B) you offered people to reply with. Its for gambling addicts
  - yreg 3y ago
    If it's for gambling addicts who know very little then it shouldn't be that difficult to make money on it (not necessarily on LK99, but in general). Either the markets have more insight (swarm intelligence or agents who know more leveraging their knowledge) than me – and in that case they give me some information – or they have less insight and in that case I should play them.
    - 55555 3y ago
      Does anyone know which real money prediction market is deepest? The ones I see everyone referencing are fake money
      - yreg 3y ago
        I know only about this one https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...
  - P_I_Staker 3y ago
    You're reply falls like a house of brick with no mortars.

ChadNauseam 3y ago

> Are there any concrete examples of these markets being accurate There are prediction markets for US elections, which tend to be pretty good. In general you should only expect markets with high liquidity to be very hard to beat, and the US elections have relatively low liquidity, so IIRC Nate Silver still outperforms them (but only by a small amount). The reason you should expect high-liquidity markets to be hard to beat is that, if they were easy to beat, you could easily get rich by betting on them. So the common-sense idea of "there's no easy way to get rich" implies that they cannot be easy to beat. The main exception to this principle is when there's a huge amount of money that intentionally places "bad" bets on the market, usually because they want to hedge against something. (e.g. I don't want this to happen, so I'll bet that it will happen, that way at least if it does happen I'll make some money.) This is why the TIPS spread, which can be interpreted as a prediction market for US inflation, consistently over-predicts inflation. Entities that stand to lose from high inflation use TIPS to hedge, which causes the TIPS spread to be too high. This could be corrected with better market design, but the treasury hasn't done that yet.