10 ms·

Out of curiosity, since this seems like a real inflection point toward trending in that direction, if it becomes increasingly likely that LK-99 or similar mater

by caesil 3y ago

Out of curiosity, since this seems like a real inflection point toward trending in that direction, if it becomes increasingly likely that LK-99 or similar material is indeed a high-TC superconductor, what will savvy people be positioning themselves to do? What are good investments? What companies will be started, or what will existing companies be pivoting toward?

m3kw9 3y ago
Depends if this can scale, and can withstand environments and carry enough current density etc. If it’s brittle as f, then it limits its applications for example.
- dtx1 3y ago
  Even if it is, we can coat it in epoxy and deal with it. And even if we can't, remember the first semi-conductor was germanium. If we have a theoretical and practical reproducible RT Superconductor we will very fast find new, better ones.
  - tnecniv 3y ago
    And audio nerds everywhere are still lusting after germanium transistors to this day!
    - bick_nyers 3y ago
      Could you explain why? Sounds intriguing.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        Sounds noisy...
      - Ccecil 3y ago
        My understanding is that it is due to the lower voltage drop across the base junction. Germanium is .3v vs Silicon .7v, so with germanium you get less "crossover distortion" when the input signal is crossing the 0 line. edit: I understand that typically this is biased out with diodes...but the matching is not perfect and it is easier to start with half the distortion.
        jacquesm 3y ago
        Never mind that any half decent amp design biases the base voltage to make sure that you're not going to have that problem.
      - ruined 3y ago
        musicians often use them to generate distortion, which is purely an electrical phenomenon. germanium components tend to filter high frequencies and don't clip as sharply as silicon, generating tonal effects that can't really be replicated. but mostly, a lot of early guitar pedals used germanium components, and so they are associated with prestigious historic guitar players. here's a video demonstration. silicon first, then halfway through they flip the switches and play the same circuit with germanium components. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3F8-EAxlXA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3F8-EAxlXA
        dtx1 3y ago
        > generating tonal effects that can't really be replicated. Seems my headphones can replicate it judging from hearing the audio. Am I missing something?
        ruined 3y ago
        you're listening to a recording. a musician wants to make sound
        wahnfrieden 3y ago
        Synthesis not sample
        piwi 3y ago
        There are simulators such a Kemper or neural DSP that can reproduce fairly well any amp, but it is expensive, and imperfect. When you play on emulation it's difficult to know if it is faithful without having used the original. Some musician appreciate them, others avoid them. When you happen to finally get the real gear, you often realize it sounds better, and have a wider range of usage. The convenience of real dedicate knobs, without menus is unmatched. There is some pleasure with getting the real thing, and use it by yourself.
        Blackthorn 3y ago
        Well, it's the creation rather than the playback that's important, but you aren't really missing anything. It's not like the various waveshaping functionality of those aren't documented, they're entirely reproducible in software.
      - ssklash 3y ago
        Ge transistors clip audio signals in a "smoother" way. A softer knee, its called.
    - bacon_waffle 3y ago
      Hmm, superconducting inductors seem like an audiophile thing. Patent?
      - wiml 3y ago
        I've read that superconducting inductors are handy for making very high-Q filters (no parasitic resistance!) and are even used in places as prosaic as cellular towers (LN2-cooled microstrip structures).
- jacquesm 3y ago
  That's not that important. What is important is that if it is true that this is the first member of a new class of superconductors, a whole new family if you will and that once the principles are better understood materials scientists can go about their search in a smaller parameter space of which they have proof that at least one set yields results. Compared to the steps that have been happening in the last decades this one would be absolutely incredible in terms of temperature range, if I understood it correctly they aren't even sure about the upper limit due to a restriction in their measuring gear.
  - porphyra 3y ago
    On one hand, yes, a new family will be discovered. On the other hand, high temperature superconductors like YBCO are very brittle and it does limit the applications. Traditional liquid helium-cooled superconductors still have to be used in many places.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      One of the reasons it is so brittle is because it is still very cold even though it is high temp for a superconductor. Many materials will become brittle when cooled down that far. This is one of things people hope for with higher temp superconductors: that they will be less brittle. But less brittle usually also implies that a material changes shape easier and that in turn may affect the superconductivity. For instance when a large current runs through a superconductor that leads to strong magnetic fields and those strong magnetic fields will actively push against each other trying to destroy the conductor. A non-rigid superconductor would behave in ways that are not really helpful for instance by pushing it out of its superconducting domain (which would result in some pretty spectacular fireworks because suddenly all that power is available to heat up a small segment of the no-long-superconductor). So there is some chance that all materials that exhibit (useful) superconductivity will end up being somewhat brittle, and will need to be mechanically re-inforced.
npunt 3y ago
> What are good investments? Open-ended research grants to anyone with moderate training in experimental science to just throw shit against the wall and try every last possible combination of something, without concern for 'publish or perish' or jockeying for status in academia. Lets get our smartest and most dedicated technical people back in labs rather than off making CRUD apps for 10x academic wages. If this discovery is true, we just got lucky. Based on the story we know of LK-99 it almost didn't happen, and our current system is not set up to make these kinds of discoveries quickly. Throwing billions at 'just go find stuff that matters' basic research is ultra cheap in comparison to humanity not having a high-tc superconductor.
- delfinom 3y ago
  I would imagine a lot of discoveries in chemistry that humanity has made were _lucky_ over the course of history.
- quantim 3y ago
  This has been argued by David Deutsch for a long time and I'm glad to see it being replicated here. People should be free to pursue problems that interest them without fear of not returning results that are not deemed "favourable" to the institution. This will help speed up the creation of new "good explanations" which leads to new knowledge.
zanderwohl 3y ago
It's going to be a long time before it's put into use if this paper is correct. While it's exciting that a mechanism has been discovered (possibly), it seems to imply that the current method of synthesizing it is partially luck-based, and not very high quality. Of course, if we do understand how it works, lots of people will put lots of research into making a more reliable process, but it's going to take time. I'm not sure a clear path forward exists.
- petesergeant 3y ago
  If it’s shown it’s theoretically possible there’s going to be a gigantic reallocation of resources into productising it and figuring out to make production work. “It’s theoretically possible but hard” is a world of difference away from “unsure if theoretically possible”
- micromacrofoot 3y ago
  I think this is generally true, but also if this is verified it will suddenly have billions of dollars thrown into it overnight... possibly similar to the speed that covid vaccine research was done; there's a TON of money to be made for the first company that can put this discovery to use. This is a once in a lifetime sort of discovery.
losteric 3y ago
Posting for Cunningham's law :) * Green energy suddenly becomes way more viable. Megaprojects in the most efficient sites can send energy long-distance and store it with effectively no loss, somewhat mitigating regional variations (especially if we have a high-trust world order where a united global grid is viable). (I read LK99 might have some limitations carrying lots of current but presumably other approaches would do better) * EVs: improved performance of motors, batteries, charge time, and weight - huge shift for the market. Much safer than most current car batteries too. * Big breakthrough for computing in the form of fast, cool, and efficient zero-resistance transistors. Step change for cutting-edge component performance, all the cloud hyperscalers would completely revamp their compute. TSMC / ASML probably get huge volumes of new orders. Obviously the first bet is following the patents. Otherwise, my play would be the industrial companies that build things that build things, like factory automation companies, followed by companies that would see a surge in demand from products incorporating room-temp superconductor technology, like TSMC, ASML (maybe Apple/AWS).
- jakeinspace 3y ago
  Sorry, but how does one create a transistor from a superconductor? Maybe I’m missing something here.
  - bpye 3y ago
    I don’t think we’d necessarily have to use it for transistors, but could use it in place of the metal interconnect that is significant in terms of resistive loss.
  - junofan 3y ago
    I think Josephson junctions. Also maybe you could eliminate copper loss by using LK-99 interconnect layers.
  - floxy 3y ago
    Most superconducting logic families aren't using transistors at all. They use Josephson junctions, which are just two pieces of superconductor separated by a non-supercondutor. RSFQ (Rapid Single Flux Quantum) uses millivolt-high picosecond-long pulses to represent logic 1 and their absence as logic zero, instead of using voltage level as in CMOS. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/783712 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/783712 (770 GHz toggle flip-flop in 1999) https://www.physics.sunysb.edu/Physics/RSFQ/Projects/WhatIs/rsfqre2m.html https://www.physics.sunysb.edu/Physics/RSFQ/Projects/WhatIs/...
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by caesil 3y ago

m3kw9 3y ago

Depends if this can scale, and can withstand environments and carry enough current density etc. If it’s brittle as f, then it limits its applications for example.

dtx1 3y ago
Even if it is, we can coat it in epoxy and deal with it. And even if we can't, remember the first semi-conductor was germanium. If we have a theoretical and practical reproducible RT Superconductor we will very fast find new, better ones.
- tnecniv 3y ago
  And audio nerds everywhere are still lusting after germanium transistors to this day!
  - bick_nyers 3y ago
    Could you explain why? Sounds intriguing.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      Sounds noisy...
    - Ccecil 3y ago
      My understanding is that it is due to the lower voltage drop across the base junction. Germanium is .3v vs Silicon .7v, so with germanium you get less "crossover distortion" when the input signal is crossing the 0 line. edit: I understand that typically this is biased out with diodes...but the matching is not perfect and it is easier to start with half the distortion.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        Never mind that any half decent amp design biases the base voltage to make sure that you're not going to have that problem.
    - ruined 3y ago
      musicians often use them to generate distortion, which is purely an electrical phenomenon. germanium components tend to filter high frequencies and don't clip as sharply as silicon, generating tonal effects that can't really be replicated. but mostly, a lot of early guitar pedals used germanium components, and so they are associated with prestigious historic guitar players. here's a video demonstration. silicon first, then halfway through they flip the switches and play the same circuit with germanium components. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3F8-EAxlXA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3F8-EAxlXA
      - dtx1 3y ago
        > generating tonal effects that can't really be replicated. Seems my headphones can replicate it judging from hearing the audio. Am I missing something?
        ruined 3y ago
        you're listening to a recording. a musician wants to make sound
        wahnfrieden 3y ago
        Synthesis not sample
        piwi 3y ago
        There are simulators such a Kemper or neural DSP that can reproduce fairly well any amp, but it is expensive, and imperfect. When you play on emulation it's difficult to know if it is faithful without having used the original. Some musician appreciate them, others avoid them. When you happen to finally get the real gear, you often realize it sounds better, and have a wider range of usage. The convenience of real dedicate knobs, without menus is unmatched. There is some pleasure with getting the real thing, and use it by yourself.
        Blackthorn 3y ago
        Well, it's the creation rather than the playback that's important, but you aren't really missing anything. It's not like the various waveshaping functionality of those aren't documented, they're entirely reproducible in software.
    - ssklash 3y ago
      Ge transistors clip audio signals in a "smoother" way. A softer knee, its called.
  - bacon_waffle 3y ago
    Hmm, superconducting inductors seem like an audiophile thing. Patent?
    - wiml 3y ago
      I've read that superconducting inductors are handy for making very high-Q filters (no parasitic resistance!) and are even used in places as prosaic as cellular towers (LN2-cooled microstrip structures).
jacquesm 3y ago
That's not that important. What is important is that if it is true that this is the first member of a new class of superconductors, a whole new family if you will and that once the principles are better understood materials scientists can go about their search in a smaller parameter space of which they have proof that at least one set yields results. Compared to the steps that have been happening in the last decades this one would be absolutely incredible in terms of temperature range, if I understood it correctly they aren't even sure about the upper limit due to a restriction in their measuring gear.
- porphyra 3y ago
  On one hand, yes, a new family will be discovered. On the other hand, high temperature superconductors like YBCO are very brittle and it does limit the applications. Traditional liquid helium-cooled superconductors still have to be used in many places.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    One of the reasons it is so brittle is because it is still very cold even though it is high temp for a superconductor. Many materials will become brittle when cooled down that far. This is one of things people hope for with higher temp superconductors: that they will be less brittle. But less brittle usually also implies that a material changes shape easier and that in turn may affect the superconductivity. For instance when a large current runs through a superconductor that leads to strong magnetic fields and those strong magnetic fields will actively push against each other trying to destroy the conductor. A non-rigid superconductor would behave in ways that are not really helpful for instance by pushing it out of its superconducting domain (which would result in some pretty spectacular fireworks because suddenly all that power is available to heat up a small segment of the no-long-superconductor). So there is some chance that all materials that exhibit (useful) superconductivity will end up being somewhat brittle, and will need to be mechanically re-inforced.

npunt 3y ago

> What are good investments? Open-ended research grants to anyone with moderate training in experimental science to just throw shit against the wall and try every last possible combination of something, without concern for 'publish or perish' or jockeying for status in academia. Lets get our smartest and most dedicated technical people back in labs rather than off making CRUD apps for 10x academic wages. If this discovery is true, we just got lucky. Based on the story we know of LK-99 it almost didn't happen, and our current system is not set up to make these kinds of discoveries quickly. Throwing billions at 'just go find stuff that matters' basic research is ultra cheap in comparison to humanity not having a high-tc superconductor.

delfinom 3y ago
I would imagine a lot of discoveries in chemistry that humanity has made were _lucky_ over the course of history.
quantim 3y ago
This has been argued by David Deutsch for a long time and I'm glad to see it being replicated here. People should be free to pursue problems that interest them without fear of not returning results that are not deemed "favourable" to the institution. This will help speed up the creation of new "good explanations" which leads to new knowledge.

zanderwohl 3y ago

It's going to be a long time before it's put into use if this paper is correct. While it's exciting that a mechanism has been discovered (possibly), it seems to imply that the current method of synthesizing it is partially luck-based, and not very high quality. Of course, if we do understand how it works, lots of people will put lots of research into making a more reliable process, but it's going to take time. I'm not sure a clear path forward exists.

petesergeant 3y ago
If it’s shown it’s theoretically possible there’s going to be a gigantic reallocation of resources into productising it and figuring out to make production work. “It’s theoretically possible but hard” is a world of difference away from “unsure if theoretically possible”
micromacrofoot 3y ago
I think this is generally true, but also if this is verified it will suddenly have billions of dollars thrown into it overnight... possibly similar to the speed that covid vaccine research was done; there's a TON of money to be made for the first company that can put this discovery to use. This is a once in a lifetime sort of discovery.

losteric 3y ago

Posting for Cunningham's law :) * Green energy suddenly becomes way more viable. Megaprojects in the most efficient sites can send energy long-distance and store it with effectively no loss, somewhat mitigating regional variations (especially if we have a high-trust world order where a united global grid is viable). (I read LK99 might have some limitations carrying lots of current but presumably other approaches would do better) * EVs: improved performance of motors, batteries, charge time, and weight - huge shift for the market. Much safer than most current car batteries too. * Big breakthrough for computing in the form of fast, cool, and efficient zero-resistance transistors. Step change for cutting-edge component performance, all the cloud hyperscalers would completely revamp their compute. TSMC / ASML probably get huge volumes of new orders. Obviously the first bet is following the patents. Otherwise, my play would be the industrial companies that build things that build things, like factory automation companies, followed by companies that would see a surge in demand from products incorporating room-temp superconductor technology, like TSMC, ASML (maybe Apple/AWS).

jakeinspace 3y ago
Sorry, but how does one create a transistor from a superconductor? Maybe I’m missing something here.
- bpye 3y ago
  I don’t think we’d necessarily have to use it for transistors, but could use it in place of the metal interconnect that is significant in terms of resistive loss.
- junofan 3y ago
  I think Josephson junctions. Also maybe you could eliminate copper loss by using LK-99 interconnect layers.
- floxy 3y ago
  Most superconducting logic families aren't using transistors at all. They use Josephson junctions, which are just two pieces of superconductor separated by a non-supercondutor. RSFQ (Rapid Single Flux Quantum) uses millivolt-high picosecond-long pulses to represent logic 1 and their absence as logic zero, instead of using voltage level as in CMOS. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/783712 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/783712 (770 GHz toggle flip-flop in 1999) https://www.physics.sunysb.edu/Physics/RSFQ/Projects/WhatIs/rsfqre2m.html https://www.physics.sunysb.edu/Physics/RSFQ/Projects/WhatIs/...

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