7 ms·

I would hazard a guess that the replacement rate has fallen below the attrition rate precisely because pay has not kept up with inflation, which would fall exac

I would hazard a guess that the replacement rate has fallen below the attrition rate precisely because pay has not kept up with inflation, which would fall exactly in line with the parent poster’s argument.

mcculley 3y ago
Your guess is partly correct. Jones Act and USCG Subchapter M are bigger parts of the problem. It is not just pay rate. Where I can match pay rates, I cannot match lifestyle. U.S. citizens and green card holders have more attractive jobs available to them that do not require being away from family for weeks at a time. (e.g., software development)
- tayo42 3y ago
  how much does this job pay?
  - mcculley 3y ago
    Licensed captains with Master of Towing endorsement are currently getting $800-$1,200 per day in regions I am familiar with.
    - tayo42 3y ago
      thats actually not to bad. is the work really inconsistent then, so yearly your not making that much
      - mcculley 3y ago
        There is more work than there are licensed captains available. A good captain can work 365 days per year.
- genocidicbunny 3y ago
  > It is not just pay rate. Where I can match pay rates, I cannot match lifestyle. Acceptance of that lifestyle is partially contingent on the pay. I am sure that plenty of people would be willing to spend long stretches away from home at work if they were being paid $1m.
  - mcculley 3y ago
    Certainly, I could poach a license if I could pay a $1M.
    - genocidicbunny 3y ago
      Right, so we agree that fundamentally, this is a pay shortage. That's exactly the point everyone is trying to make to you. That ultimately most labor shortages, unless caused by extremely rapid change in conditions (such as a law being introduced with only weeks notice that dramatically changes the regulatory landscape with no time to adapt) are usually pay shortages. Labor shortage has long been used as a weasel phrase to imply that it's the fault of the workers/labor that companies can't fill positions. That's what the pushback is on. If your business can't find enough workers, you or your industry aren't offering enough financial incentive to have people work for you. You need to offer more money. And if you can't because it's not financially viable? Well...seems the free market has spoken and said that your business is not viable anymore. As the kids say these days, 'sucks to suck'.
      - mcculley 3y ago
        I fully agree that the industry does not price the labor correctly. This is one reason why I am selling the company and reallocating the capital. There are many funded projects not executing for lack of captains today. The captains I manage to hire leave other companies wanting. How is that not a shortage?
        genocidicbunny 3y ago
        It's a shortage, no one is disputing that. But it's not a shortage of labor. It's a shortage of pay. Phrasing it as alabor shortage is a problem.
- supertofu 3y ago
  The percentage of U.S. Citizens with the education and temperment to become software engineers is way smaller than you are assuming here.
  - mcculley 3y ago
    I have been a software engineer for 30 years before falling into running a tugboat company. I am not assuming anything.
    - alemanek 3y ago
      Ok, now I am really interested in your story. If you don’t mind sharing. How did you find yourself in a second career as the owner/operator of a tugboat company?
      - mcculley 3y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36951413 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36951413
    - red-iron-pine 3y ago
      tell me more. there are days when IT ain't fun and I miss the ocean...
  - nradov 3y ago
    What is that percentage exactly? There are no particular education requirements for writing software. Some of the best developers have no formal education in the field.
- omginternets 3y ago
  I don't understand how this is distinct from the issue of pay.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  > Where I can match pay rates, I cannot match lifestyle. Pay is short for “pay to quality of life at work ratio”. If alternatives with better pay to QoL ratios become available, the then either a business can increase the pay to QoL ratio, or it may no longer be viable.
  - mcculley 3y ago
    I did not write "quality of life". I wrote "lifestyle". I find that many young candidates do not want to be on a boat for a week or more away from family. Some do. Most do not. I, personally, enjoyed long voyages when I was young. They added quality to my life.
    - omginternets 3y ago
      >I find that many young candidates do not want to be on a boat for a week or more away from family. I think it would be helpful to this discussion if you were to add "for the amount that I am paying them" to the end of that sentence. Then, you would be addressing the point.
      - mcculley 3y ago
        Before I decided that this industry was a poor place to deploy capital, I was open to paying whatever was necessary to fix the pipeline.
        badpun 3y ago
        In my country (Poland), long-haul truckers are paid roughly double what the local truckers (those who get to come home every night) make. This is enough to compensate people for the inconvenience, and there's generally no shortage of workers. So, maybe in your case, there's also some multiplier that would work?
        mcculley 3y ago
        Candidates are definitely attracted to higher pay. The immediate issue is that it takes a long time to get the candidate the seatime, training, and tests to become licensed. We are working on our pipeline. That does not change the shortage today.

mcculley 3y ago

Your guess is partly correct. Jones Act and USCG Subchapter M are bigger parts of the problem. It is not just pay rate. Where I can match pay rates, I cannot match lifestyle. U.S. citizens and green card holders have more attractive jobs available to them that do not require being away from family for weeks at a time. (e.g., software development)

tayo42 3y ago
how much does this job pay?
- mcculley 3y ago
  Licensed captains with Master of Towing endorsement are currently getting $800-$1,200 per day in regions I am familiar with.
  - tayo42 3y ago
    thats actually not to bad. is the work really inconsistent then, so yearly your not making that much
    - mcculley 3y ago
      There is more work than there are licensed captains available. A good captain can work 365 days per year.
genocidicbunny 3y ago
> It is not just pay rate. Where I can match pay rates, I cannot match lifestyle. Acceptance of that lifestyle is partially contingent on the pay. I am sure that plenty of people would be willing to spend long stretches away from home at work if they were being paid $1m.
- mcculley 3y ago
  Certainly, I could poach a license if I could pay a $1M.
  - genocidicbunny 3y ago
    Right, so we agree that fundamentally, this is a pay shortage. That's exactly the point everyone is trying to make to you. That ultimately most labor shortages, unless caused by extremely rapid change in conditions (such as a law being introduced with only weeks notice that dramatically changes the regulatory landscape with no time to adapt) are usually pay shortages. Labor shortage has long been used as a weasel phrase to imply that it's the fault of the workers/labor that companies can't fill positions. That's what the pushback is on. If your business can't find enough workers, you or your industry aren't offering enough financial incentive to have people work for you. You need to offer more money. And if you can't because it's not financially viable? Well...seems the free market has spoken and said that your business is not viable anymore. As the kids say these days, 'sucks to suck'.
    - mcculley 3y ago
      I fully agree that the industry does not price the labor correctly. This is one reason why I am selling the company and reallocating the capital. There are many funded projects not executing for lack of captains today. The captains I manage to hire leave other companies wanting. How is that not a shortage?
      - genocidicbunny 3y ago
        It's a shortage, no one is disputing that. But it's not a shortage of labor. It's a shortage of pay. Phrasing it as alabor shortage is a problem.
supertofu 3y ago
The percentage of U.S. Citizens with the education and temperment to become software engineers is way smaller than you are assuming here.
- mcculley 3y ago
  I have been a software engineer for 30 years before falling into running a tugboat company. I am not assuming anything.
  - alemanek 3y ago
    Ok, now I am really interested in your story. If you don’t mind sharing. How did you find yourself in a second career as the owner/operator of a tugboat company?
    - mcculley 3y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36951413 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36951413
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    tell me more. there are days when IT ain't fun and I miss the ocean...
- nradov 3y ago
  What is that percentage exactly? There are no particular education requirements for writing software. Some of the best developers have no formal education in the field.
omginternets 3y ago
I don't understand how this is distinct from the issue of pay.
lotsofpulp 3y ago
> Where I can match pay rates, I cannot match lifestyle. Pay is short for “pay to quality of life at work ratio”. If alternatives with better pay to QoL ratios become available, the then either a business can increase the pay to QoL ratio, or it may no longer be viable.
- mcculley 3y ago
  I did not write "quality of life". I wrote "lifestyle". I find that many young candidates do not want to be on a boat for a week or more away from family. Some do. Most do not. I, personally, enjoyed long voyages when I was young. They added quality to my life.
  - omginternets 3y ago
    >I find that many young candidates do not want to be on a boat for a week or more away from family. I think it would be helpful to this discussion if you were to add "for the amount that I am paying them" to the end of that sentence. Then, you would be addressing the point.
    - mcculley 3y ago
      Before I decided that this industry was a poor place to deploy capital, I was open to paying whatever was necessary to fix the pipeline.
      - badpun 3y ago
        In my country (Poland), long-haul truckers are paid roughly double what the local truckers (those who get to come home every night) make. This is enough to compensate people for the inconvenience, and there's generally no shortage of workers. So, maybe in your case, there's also some multiplier that would work?
        mcculley 3y ago
        Candidates are definitely attracted to higher pay. The immediate issue is that it takes a long time to get the candidate the seatime, training, and tests to become licensed. We are working on our pipeline. That does not change the shortage today.