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But a fraud was perpetrated and the scammer got away. The markets are supposed to ignore that? Money was taken out of the market by a bad actor. If anything thi

But a fraud was perpetrated and the scammer got away. The markets are supposed to ignore that? Money was taken out of the market by a bad actor. If anything this encourages quick fraud over slow honesty.

alchemist1e9 3y ago
Markets don’t ignore it, they learn from it. They don’t need you or any authority to protect them. Edit: Understand that the scammer has to buy, then release the false information, and then sell. They only “scam” the buyers that don’t critically assess this new information, such as it’s provenance and quality. This means that over time only the best analysts survive and thrive. Smart speculators likely sold the spike, limiting the number of buyers the manipulator could find. This scenario is actually an argument FOR prediction markets.
- morelisp 3y ago
  > They only “scam” the buyers that don’t critically assess this new information Yes correct that is a scam, no scare quotes. A scam doesn't become less of scam because it worked or didn't work.
  - alchemist1e9 3y ago
    So you feel governments should babysit prediction market speculators who can’t evaluate information for themselves? Or wait that’s too hard, so let’s just ban them, well because … fairness obviously. The issues are not problems as people make them out to be, you don’t have an intrinsic right to not be scammed, or to take vacations, as nice as it sounds, those are just fantasy that leads to worse situations when attempting to make reality.
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  > they learn from it And the lesson is that betting markets are a scam. But then you get people criticizing the ones telling you that lesson. Is it because newborn fools must be preserved until people can take their money?
  - alchemist1e9 3y ago
    How are betting markets a scam? They are remarkably useful, you can watch the LK-99 market now and you will know immediately as new information arrives.
    - weard_beard 3y ago
      The "replication" does not use the same methodology and the "scientist" is asking for bitcoin to post a video of the quantum locking effect. The existence of the market is encouraging literal scams.
      - alchemist1e9 3y ago
        So what it’s also encouraging real information.
        marcosdumay 3y ago
        Well, that's your claim. Somehow you expect people to act differently if that market wasn't there. Personally, I doubt a large number of those interested even know the market exists. Yet, scammers are deeply aware of betting markets. they seem to always be there, and even create new ones just so they can play.

alchemist1e9 3y ago

Markets don’t ignore it, they learn from it. They don’t need you or any authority to protect them. Edit: Understand that the scammer has to buy, then release the false information, and then sell. They only “scam” the buyers that don’t critically assess this new information, such as it’s provenance and quality. This means that over time only the best analysts survive and thrive. Smart speculators likely sold the spike, limiting the number of buyers the manipulator could find. This scenario is actually an argument FOR prediction markets.

morelisp 3y ago
> They only “scam” the buyers that don’t critically assess this new information Yes correct that is a scam, no scare quotes. A scam doesn't become less of scam because it worked or didn't work.
- alchemist1e9 3y ago
  So you feel governments should babysit prediction market speculators who can’t evaluate information for themselves? Or wait that’s too hard, so let’s just ban them, well because … fairness obviously. The issues are not problems as people make them out to be, you don’t have an intrinsic right to not be scammed, or to take vacations, as nice as it sounds, those are just fantasy that leads to worse situations when attempting to make reality.
marcosdumay 3y ago
> they learn from it And the lesson is that betting markets are a scam. But then you get people criticizing the ones telling you that lesson. Is it because newborn fools must be preserved until people can take their money?
- alchemist1e9 3y ago
  How are betting markets a scam? They are remarkably useful, you can watch the LK-99 market now and you will know immediately as new information arrives.
  - weard_beard 3y ago
    The "replication" does not use the same methodology and the "scientist" is asking for bitcoin to post a video of the quantum locking effect. The existence of the market is encouraging literal scams.
    - alchemist1e9 3y ago
      So what it’s also encouraging real information.
      - marcosdumay 3y ago
        Well, that's your claim. Somehow you expect people to act differently if that market wasn't there. Personally, I doubt a large number of those interested even know the market exists. Yet, scammers are deeply aware of betting markets. they seem to always be there, and even create new ones just so they can play.