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Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How
- spants 3y agoThe general problem with Remainers is that they tend to see Europe through rose tinted glasses rather that what is actually happening there. Sure, UK is having hard times but look at what is happening in Europe. Rampant unemployment and social issues are the norm in Europe. The issue with Brexit was that the UK leadership never believed it would happen and did not want it to happen. Brexit was never really implemented. With tough times coming, people will see that we can be nimble enough with Brexit to avoid sluggish EU processes.
- iamben 3y agohttps://archive.is/FoJ22 https://archive.is/FoJ22
- edvards 3y agoIf the UK proves itself to be a partner that doesn't want special treatment like before, it sure can be welcomed back by the EU, and if anything it coming back will only strengthen the union by showing that leaving it was considered a mistake in the end. But I still feel skeptical regarding Brits and British politicians actually being ready to accept the fact they're not special and that they will not have special treatment. I am pretty sure they'll want to pull a sneaky and try to sneak something in to calm down the Tories.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mutatio 3y agoWell only even the most pious remainers would accept the Euro as a currency and removing fiscal sovereignty, so it's a total non-starter. The special treatment for the old guard (German automotive, French farming industries) also needs to be expunged.
- kramerger 3y agoI don't think Germany and France are getting any special treatment. There might be something for the agriculture or automotive sectors, but it will apply to all countries.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- parineum 3y agoSo I guess the EU should just let everyone use pounds as currency.
- mutatio 3y agoThat's precisely why the UK got a rebate, because the subsidies were not applicable to the UK economy, which had a disproportionately low input from farming, thus for our financial input we weren't fairly rewarded. The UK has had a declining car manufacturing industry also, so the same applies to German industry. The redistribution of contributions may very well appear fair on paper, but countries cannot simply magic up a pivot to farming and automotive industries as a way to receive funds...
- mlyle 3y ago> would accept the Euro as a currency I don't know why this keeps coming up-- joining the EU does not require adopting the Euro.
- mutatio 3y agoBecause domestic UK politics wouldn't allow this to pass on technicalities, I mean haven't you learned anything from the build up to Brexit? It would have to be explicit to be palatable, not some technicality that we effectively want to play ball on the Euro, but never really do... Hell, even from the EU side I'd want a honest decision, not political illusion.
- mlyle 3y ago
- stbenjam 3y agoHard to imagine Britain joining both the Euro and the Schengen zones. I just don’t see the British public not thinking they’re special and demanding exceptions and carve outs just for them.
- mutatio 3y agoThe currency is a hard no, even from hardent remainer quarters. The Euro and the ECB haven't even been a success for the EU as-is, a single fiscal policy cannot reconcile the economies of Germany and Greece. The hubris of the UK submitting to the Euro isn't pragmatic or in the realms of reality. Participation from the UK hardly changes things also, making it come across almost vindictive.
- mschuster91 3y ago> The Euro and the ECB haven't even been a success for the EU as-is, a single fiscal policy cannot reconcile the economies of Germany and Greece. Of course it has been a success. I (half-German, half-Croatian) grew up in times where each of the borders from Germany to Croatia had anything from 1-4 hours of waiting time, you'd need to exchange currency at each border (at outrageous rates) as well simply to be able to pay for fuel and food, and heaven forbid you even got a call on your phone due to roaming charges. Nowadays? No border controls at least on the way to Croatia any more (the other way around does because of certain far-right politicians), no currency exchanges, no leftover currency when you go back, seamless cross-border bank transfers, no phone roaming surprise bills... it's utterly awesome.
- messe 3y agoTo play devil’s advocate, a lot of that is now ameliorated by the decline of cash and the rise of certain neobanks. I’m in Denmark at the moment, and thanks to my banks (N26, Revolut), I can cheaply convert my savings (EUR) and spend in the local currency (DKK); either at transaction time (N26 and Revolut), or ahead of time (Revolut) all with minimal fees.
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- kramerger 3y agoPlease don't. Things have been so much smoother in the EU since UK left. Their politicians had this idea that Europe was out to screw them in every deal and that made it a very annoying 30 years of "collaboration".
- coldtea 3y ago[flagged]
- gumballindie 3y agoThings are smooth indeed. Without real opposition, Germany can further drag the continent down the stagnation and economic strangulation through austerity only it benefits from paths as it pleases.
- deepthunder 3y agoTotally agree. I think also the Scandinavian countries were sad to see the UK go, as someone else has mentioned in another comment, it was a counterweight to German/French hegemony.
- Mlller 3y agoI have heard the opposite: that the United Kingdom was, as a rule, an important ally for the economic policies favoured by Germany and others. E.g., “So far the following EU countries have announced that they oppose Eurobonds: Germany, United Kingdom, Finland and the Netherlands.” on p. 186 in Schäfer 2012 = vol. 9.2 in EJCE = https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255726169_The_Sovereign_Debt_Crisis_in_Europe_Save_Banks_Not_States https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255726169_The_Sover... Further more, the UK was an important net contributor. So I think, on the whole, Brexit was bad for Germany.
- gumballindie 3y agoGermany has pushed Britain out of the EU by allowing more than one million people in, at a time when the UK had a sensitive debate around the very issue that Germany created along with Russia. Russia pushed, Germany pulled. After that Germany has threatened countries with sanctions if they didnt agree to taking in the very people it welcomed against the wishes of member states. It knew exactly what it did, and it did it to push Britain out of the Union because it found it to its advantage.
- blibble 3y agoremember: the FT have managed to mis-predict every single major UK political event relating to brexit: - they'll vote remain - they'll ignore the referendum result - they won't invoke article 50 - the article 50 court case will prevent it being triggered - we won't exit - we'll stay in the single market they simply have no understanding of how the electorate think (though I suppose it's possible they may eventually get one right)
- Biologist123 3y agoMagical thinking generally is alive and well in certain strata of British life. UK politics generally seems to be a game of make believe, with a broad failure to grasp that decline is now baked in.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago"perception is reality" is not a trait that is particularly limited to the UK.
- disgruntledphd2 3y agoTo be fair, they're a business paper and from an economic perspective Brexit made absolutely no sense, so it's not that surprising.
- blibble 3y agomaybe it's unrealistic that political journalists should have some insight of the subject matter beyond that of a politics student (similarly: their recently retired stock-picking columnist revealed he'd never traded a stock)
- disgruntledphd2 3y agoDid you expect any of those things? Like I followed the process religiously and I kept being surprised by the sheer insanity of all the UK government decisions.
- c7DJTLrn 3y agoThere's no way it will happen, the damage has been done and besides, the politicians don't want it. The referendum should've been nullified when the scale of political interference via social media in 2016 came to light. Also, 52% to 48% is not a resounding "yes" and should not have been considered as one.
- hcayless 3y agoMore to the point 2/4 countries in the UK voted remain and got dragged out of the EU anyway.
- bombcar 3y agoI suppose they could dissolve the United Kingdom.
- blibble 3y agothe UK is unitary state, not a federation or confederation the previous sovereign states that were dissolved to form it are called "countries" for historical reasons the referendum was 1 person 1 vote populations: - Scotland and NI (voted Remain): 7.5 million - England and Wales (vote Leave): 60 million allowing 7.5 million to override 60 million, simply because they physically live in an area that was formerly a different state several hundred years ago would be disenfranchisement on a vast scale not to mention completely undemocratic
- seanp2k2 3y ago> allowing 7.5 million to override 60 million, simply because they physically live in an area that was formerly a different state several hundred years ago would be disenfranchisement on a vast scale Like how in the Electoral College here in the US, one vote in Wyoming can have almost two orders of magnitude more impact than a vote in California when it comes to electing senators, as each state gets two regardless of population [0]. Similarly, when one looks at the extent of gerrymandering, it’s clear that the winners, and especially one party in particular, love to redraw the lines to cherry-pick the voters that will elect them while excluding others that might challenge them [1]. For presidential elections, the difference between a Wyoming voter’s say and the average say of a voter from any other state is around 3.18:1. Worst-case is of course California, where it’s about 3.6:1 when compared to Wyoming, or said another way, a vote here is worth 27.7% of a Wyoming vote. [2][3] 0. https://wallethub.com/edu/how-much-is-your-vote-worth/7932 1. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2021/nov/12/gerrymander-redistricting-map-republicans-democrats-visual 2. https://fairvote.org/archives/the_electoral_college-population_vs_electoral_votes/ 3. https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/how-much-voting-power-do-you-really-have-in-your-state
- coldtea 3y ago[flagged]
- rightontarget 3y ago[flagged]
- mpweiher 3y agoDemocratic decisions get overturned all the time, usually at the next election. That is the essence of democracy.
- primordialsoup 3y agoTixerb. Here I reversed it.
- x86x87 3y agoIQ200 move right here. Just make sure the UK does not learn this weird one trick
- sys_64738 3y agoGeneral de Gaulle was right in the 60s that the brits are more trouble than they're worth. France is smart and won't let them back in. Brexit is now and forever as far as the EU is concerned.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mutatio 3y agoThe guy who famously received safety for himself and his family in Britain during the war, what a thanks indeed... Believe it or not I've heard this anecdote told as a projection of anti-European sentiment, have you considered what might have been for the Anglo-European relationship had he not felt France was the centre of the European project and portrayed the UK this way?
- sys_64738 3y agoHe saw Britain as a stooge for the USA. He was right. He still is.
- mutatio 3y agoThen it appears we had no choice, a self fulfilling prophecy.
- boricj 3y agoThe Gaulle considered the United Kingdom too closely aligned with the United States for comfort. At the time, De Gaulle's first veto on that topic came shortly after the US agreed to supply the UK with Polaris missiles for the UK's nuclear weapons program. De Gaulle also wanted to shield the nascent EEC from the United States's influence as much as possible. For him, integrating the United Kingdom into the EEC would have moved the EEC's barycenter too far towards Washington.
- scott_w 3y agoI’ve only read half the article and stopped because it seems the author is hopelessly ignorant about some basic facts: - The EU won’t start the process to admit the UK until joining is politically settled - Until the Tory party is also onboard with rejoining, it can’t be politically settled - The Tory party will only get onboard when it’s no longer possible to win power without wanting to rejoin - Despite there being over 30m voters in the UK, our system ensures only a few hundred thousand swing voters decide the government - Those voters are still in favour of Brexit - Finally, ALL polls showing a majority rejoin exclude “Don’t knows,” meaning there’s no actual majority for rejoin The above facts explain why the Labour Party is not campaigning to rejoin. Until a number of those are changed, the UK simply will not rejoin the EU.
- nprateem 3y agoSources for the last 2 claims? Labour are doing what any good politicians do and are avoiding a divisive issue to try to appeal to both sides.
- scott_w 3y agoThe “source” is the fact Labour are not talking about rejoining. We don’t have access to their internal polling, for obvious reasons, but they clearly believe in this strategy and the 20pt lead in the polls suggests they’re right to. EDIT: I missed the source for the polls. This YouGov poll shows a big “Don’t know” block which is completely missing from the news reports. Poll: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/07/18/britons-would-vote-rejoin-eu https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/0... Sample report: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/23/britons-who-want-to-rejoin-eu-at-highest-since-2016-survey-finds https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/23/britons-who...
- mpweiher 3y agoAccording to those numbers, rejoin is 55% and Leave + Don't Know is 44%. It always helps to read the sources you cite...
- mrangle 3y agoBrexit was a top level decision disguised as populism. There won't be a new referendum predicated on polling that few trust, then or now. Continental Europe's future alignment may be to the East. The UK no more wants to be on that wagon, nor even the chance of it, than they did in WWI and WWII. Therefore, in my opinion, they won't be rejoining the EU. Articles like this are fodder.
- x86x87 3y agoCoulda woulda shoulda They fucked around and now they are in the finding out phase. There is no way the EU will allow them to continue with their jackasseries. If you want back in apply like a new state and accept the shit conditions new members have to accept. You're not special. You're a shadow of a former great empire and your economy is collapsing. Immigrants? Those fools are actually keeping you afloat while you pretend they're the root of all your problems.
- bbg2401 3y ago[flagged]
- dang 3y agoAgainst British people? Have you never seen the Monty Python links I've posted? This is an example of how it always feels like the community and/or mods are against you*. It's striking to what lengths this principle can go. (Not to pick on you personally—this mechanism seems to be hard-wired in all of us.) I promise you that neither the mods nor the community hate British people. Personally I love them/you, and I'm confident most of the community here ranges is neutral or better, and nowhere near hate. No doubt some nasty comments have appeared here, but that's because everything appears here. It's a large public internet forum. * https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=%22always%20feels%22%20mods%20by%3Adang&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... Edit: it unfortunately looks like you've been breaking the site guidelines repeatedly; examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36367395 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36367395 (June 2023) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34965339 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34965339 (Feb 2023) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34802872 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34802872 (Feb 2023) We have to ban accounts that post like that. I don't want to ban you, so please don't post like that!
- x86x87 3y agoWe probably have a different definition for xenophobia. Is anything I said not factually accurate? What triggered you? Tge empire bit? The British empire was huge and controled the world at one point in time. The fact that the economy is collapsing? The fact that immigrants are treated like shift in UK? Every country and political system has to live with the monsters they created, UK included.
- rightontarget 3y agoFT and other media struggle to accept the results of democratic processes
- mpweiher 3y ago1. The referendum wasn't actually democratic. 2. The obligations that people read into the referendum (incorrectly, but whatever) have been discharged: Brexit happened. That is the past. 3. Democracy is not "One man, one vote, one time". New majorities mean new democratic mandates. Time moves on. 4. And these majorities are much, much larger than ~ 52:48 majority for Brexit. A split that, had it gone for remain, Nigel Farage said would have meant "unfinished business".
- gettodachoppa 3y agoI agree with #3 and I imagine Brexit will be reversed because of demographics. Give it a generation or so and the conformist younger people who have had globalisation propaganda and lack of pride in their country programmed into their minds since childhood will vote to rejoin. Every TV show, every teacher, most NGOs, are at it.
- MattPalmer1086 3y agoGot it, people only ever want to join a bigger federation of states due to brainwashing and lack of pride in their own state. Good to know you have all the answers.
- kamma4434 3y agoThe net result of Brexit was a disaster for Britain, and basically ‘who cares’ for Europe. I think that if Britain wants to join, as they say, beggars don’t get to choose. As a European citizen, I think that Britain belongs in Europe. On the other hand it’s time to grow up for Europe.
- clever-leap 3y agoWishful thinking. First the EU needs to change itself so people will want to re-join. Rather it seems that the EU is going opposite direction. After Covid era, I guess no sound person trust its institutions anymore.
- kaladin-jasnah 3y agoCan you elaborate on this? As someone relatively uninformed as to what the EU did during COVID that makes it unsound now.
- mpweiher 3y ago> First the EU needs to change itself so people will want to re-join Already happened. From the fine article: "60 per cent of Britons now think Brexit was the wrong decision and would vote to rejoin the EU at a second referendum" And young voters are just a tad more lopsided: "Young voters are the most pro-EU of the lot, with 79 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds wanting to rejoin"
- purple_elephant 3y agoThere are many uninformed comments in this thread saying that the UK would have to join the Eurozone if it returned to the EU. No. You only have to adopt the euro if you meet the convergence criteria. One of the criteria is joining ERM II. There's no mechanism that can force a country to join ERM II. This is why Sweden, although theoretically obliged to join the eurozone, still has its own currency.
- mutatio 3y agoI think the problem with this is that it's a technicality; the optics of selling it like that wouldn't wash - I suspect the UK would need specific reassurance for the "Euro" topic.
- nvm0n1 3y agoNo, why do pro-EU people lie about this so frequently? The rules say that to join you must adopt the euro. The EU has chosen not to enforce this rule on legacy members for now, but certainly would enforce it on Britain and anyway good luck selling "we want to join but we plan to illegally ignore the rules" to either the EU or the British electorate. Reality is the EU wasn't every opportunity in the UK and it's blue going to rejoin unless there's essentially some undemocratic coup. The moment is explained what thinking would entail the proposal is dead.
- purple_elephant 3y agoThe rules aren't "unenforced". Sweden, and the other non-eurozone countries without an opt-out, are complying with the rules. There's no rule requiring the EU members to meet the convergence criteria. Instead of accussing me of lying, you could've just looked up the relevant treaties. Here's an abridged summary: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-a... And this is about ERM II, it explicitly says that it's voluntary: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-area/adoption-fixed-euro-conversion-rate/erm-ii-eus-exchange-rate-mechanism_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-a... The full treaty on European Union is here: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12012E/TXT https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CEL...
- lifeisstillgood 3y agoI was a remainer (ie anti-Brexit). This article shows what seems to be becoming a general growing consensus that "some people (prominent campaigners and politicians) lied to us for their own benefit" - and there is a more subtle second consensus of "and then forced a hard brexit for their own career gains". This is a nice consensus because it has evil people to blame, and removes the blame from 50% of the voting public I am not sure that's a good idea. We have more or less proof that 50 % of the country cannot work out basics of social democracy, of trade agreements and referendums. Even things like self interest or which of the bastards is lying to you. It was a massive act of self harm and it was an act of democracy. Brexit shows there are viable mental models of the world and there are mental models the equivalent of crayon drawings of the sun and ann apple tree. How do we get sensible disagreement on the viable ones and laugh the crayon drawings out? I am always reminded of the woman who told John McCain "I am scared of Obama, he is an Arab". McCains reply was inspiring but the look on his face seemed to me to say "how can I fix this one voter at a time? It will take forever".
- seanp2k2 3y ago“Half of the people are below average”
- sph 3y agoThese days the only people against rejoining are hardcode Brexiters and those that start their comments with "I voted Remain but..." They are everywhere, and Labour is sadly doing anything to court these self-flagellant types, so we'll keep ignoring this shadow over our heads for the next 30 years at least.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- PrimeMcFly 3y ago> How do we get sensible disagreement on the viable ones and laugh the crayon drawings out? This is the biggest problem. It's an even bigger problem in the US. The issue is lack of education. There's a reason repub voters are generally not college educated. The answer is also education, with the caveat you can't educate people who don't want to be educated because they are already too far down a rabbit hole.
- pacifika 3y agoWhen the UK media and general public talked about Europe they didn’t include themselves in that term, so it’s no surprise Brexit happened on a macro level. It’s a cultural failing first of all for Europe.
- oliwarner 3y agoRetaining Brexit diehards is absolutely essential for Tories to avoid a complete battering at the next general election. This is just the sort of tosh that will scare any centre-left-leaning Europhobes back on side. Stories like this and —more recently— anti-green policies will run thick throughout the coming campaign.
- tim333 3y agoI find it hard to see us rejoining in a hurry but I think we could move to a soft brexit, Norway / Switzerland type deal fairly soon assuming Labour get in.