7 ms·

There will be a period of massive upheaval when the fundamental tenet of all economic models and assumptions (perpetual growth) is completely chronically invali

There will be a period of massive upheaval when the fundamental tenet of all economic models and assumptions (perpetual growth) is completely chronically invalidated and we run out of resources as the models reset to something that’s absolutely zero sum (as it should be). Great suffering and fighting can be expected during this period.

Barrin92 3y ago
while the question is open if economic growth will continue forever neither resources or population are an issue. The German economy say, has grown by 400% since the 1970s in real terms while the population has stayed stable. Energy use has slightly fallen over the last few decades. Economic growth is technologically driven and developed economies are at or already past peak resources consumption.
- bitschubser_ 3y ago
  i'm no economist... but didn't externalizing a lot of production offset the missing population growth? So germany just externalized raw material extraction and production but still kept the profits?
  - dredmorbius 3y ago
    Germany has also "climbed the value ladder" focusing on production of high-value goods whilst counting on imports to provide for low-value ones. Some of that is of course classic Ricardian "comparative advantage" of trade. Much is, though, outsourcing high-impact / high-resource / high-effluent production to elsewhere.
- ramraj07 3y ago
  More fundamentally I’m not convinced that we are not in a zero sum game as seems to be assumed under all economic theory.
  - imtringued 3y ago
    Entropy is inherently a zero sum game. We have a given level of energy reserves and all we do is transform what we have into a different form. Economists confuse an increase in the extraction rate as some kind of "creating something from nothing" but actually a better analogy is "traveling to previously unreachable places".
photonbeam 3y ago
War will be significantly more risky with no population growth
- tetris11 3y ago
  At art history museums you can see paintings of hundreds of cavalry men protecting a star shaped fort, nervously watching a mob of yesteryear patrons go about their day. Protecting capital meant hiring hundreds of flesh and blood soldiers back then. In 2010 the same job could be done with 10 men holding machine guns. In 2030, we have drones. Humans need not apply.
  - nindalf 3y ago
    Could be done with 10 men? In 2023 Russia had significantly more than 10 men protecting Moscow from a rebellion. Thing is, you need more if the enemy also has the same weapons.
    - tetris11 3y ago
      Tell me the total casualties haven't been on the whole declining since the dawn of time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_by_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_by_casualties
  - postmodfemenist 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - dredmorbius 3y ago
      Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." <https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html>
kmonsen 3y ago
Economic growth doesn't need to have any anchoring in reality, it can grow as much as we want it to.
- idontwantthis 3y ago
  It will still be anchored in reality, it just won’t have the guaranteed bump from population increase. Growth will be slower, but will still happen due to technology and efficiency improvements. Once we set our expectations to 1% growth, there’s no reason that has to be a problem.
- imtringued 3y ago
  If it is not anchored in reality then you don't need growth how long until people understand that? You don't need to wait for economic growth in the opensource space. You just go ahead and download the software, use it and be happy today.
- wcoenen 3y ago
  Economics is fundamentally about the allocation of scarce resources. So if we are talking about how human civilization allocates scarce resources (and not about some virtual economy e.g. inside a computer game), then economic growth is very much anchored in reality.
- Eddy_Viscosity2 3y ago
  He's a fictional conversation [1] between an economist and physicist where they discuss this very premise: Economist: Hi Tom, I’m [ahem..cough]. I’m an economist. Physicist: Hey, that’s great. I’ve been thinking a bit about growth and want to run an idea by you. I claim that economic growth cannot continue indefinitely. Economist: [chokes on bread crumb] Did I hear you right? Did you say that growth can not continue forever? Physicist: That’s right. I think physical limits assert themselves. ... the rest in the link ... [1] https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...
  - kmonsen 3y ago
oliv5900 3y ago
As long as Jensen can sell me polished sand for $5000, till then the economy isn't zero sum.

Barrin92 3y ago

while the question is open if economic growth will continue forever neither resources or population are an issue. The German economy say, has grown by 400% since the 1970s in real terms while the population has stayed stable. Energy use has slightly fallen over the last few decades. Economic growth is technologically driven and developed economies are at or already past peak resources consumption.

bitschubser_ 3y ago
i'm no economist... but didn't externalizing a lot of production offset the missing population growth? So germany just externalized raw material extraction and production but still kept the profits?
- dredmorbius 3y ago
  Germany has also "climbed the value ladder" focusing on production of high-value goods whilst counting on imports to provide for low-value ones. Some of that is of course classic Ricardian "comparative advantage" of trade. Much is, though, outsourcing high-impact / high-resource / high-effluent production to elsewhere.
ramraj07 3y ago
More fundamentally I’m not convinced that we are not in a zero sum game as seems to be assumed under all economic theory.
- imtringued 3y ago
  Entropy is inherently a zero sum game. We have a given level of energy reserves and all we do is transform what we have into a different form. Economists confuse an increase in the extraction rate as some kind of "creating something from nothing" but actually a better analogy is "traveling to previously unreachable places".

photonbeam 3y ago

War will be significantly more risky with no population growth

tetris11 3y ago
At art history museums you can see paintings of hundreds of cavalry men protecting a star shaped fort, nervously watching a mob of yesteryear patrons go about their day. Protecting capital meant hiring hundreds of flesh and blood soldiers back then. In 2010 the same job could be done with 10 men holding machine guns. In 2030, we have drones. Humans need not apply.
- nindalf 3y ago
  Could be done with 10 men? In 2023 Russia had significantly more than 10 men protecting Moscow from a rebellion. Thing is, you need more if the enemy also has the same weapons.
  - tetris11 3y ago
    Tell me the total casualties haven't been on the whole declining since the dawn of time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_by_casualties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_by_casualties
- postmodfemenist 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - dredmorbius 3y ago
    Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." <https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html>

kmonsen 3y ago

Economic growth doesn't need to have any anchoring in reality, it can grow as much as we want it to.

idontwantthis 3y ago
It will still be anchored in reality, it just won’t have the guaranteed bump from population increase. Growth will be slower, but will still happen due to technology and efficiency improvements. Once we set our expectations to 1% growth, there’s no reason that has to be a problem.
imtringued 3y ago
If it is not anchored in reality then you don't need growth how long until people understand that? You don't need to wait for economic growth in the opensource space. You just go ahead and download the software, use it and be happy today.
wcoenen 3y ago
Economics is fundamentally about the allocation of scarce resources. So if we are talking about how human civilization allocates scarce resources (and not about some virtual economy e.g. inside a computer game), then economic growth is very much anchored in reality.
Eddy_Viscosity2 3y ago
He's a fictional conversation [1] between an economist and physicist where they discuss this very premise: Economist: Hi Tom, I’m [ahem..cough]. I’m an economist. Physicist: Hey, that’s great. I’ve been thinking a bit about growth and want to run an idea by you. I claim that economic growth cannot continue indefinitely. Economist: [chokes on bread crumb] Did I hear you right? Did you say that growth can not continue forever? Physicist: That’s right. I think physical limits assert themselves. ... the rest in the link ... [1] https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...
- kmonsen 3y ago

oliv5900 3y ago

As long as Jensen can sell me polished sand for $5000, till then the economy isn't zero sum.