4 ms·

Imagine that your likeness as an extra is sold for $250, used in future films via AI deep fake, and you never get paid again. That's my understanding of why th

by sb8244 3y ago

Imagine that your likeness as an extra is sold for $250, used in future films via AI deep fake, and you never get paid again. That's my understanding of why they're striking.

matwood 3y ago
That's a bit of it. The more immediate term is a studio who can feed in all the scripts they have ever received then have a single writer use an LLM and make more scripts. Eventually they wouldn't need a writer, just a person good at prompts. The problem is the writers have zero leverage. We just came out of a time of huge overspending on content where we all have thousands of hours we still haven't watched. Adding AI is on the rise and the writers may never get back what they had pre-strike. Similar thing happened last time which led to the rise in reality TV.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
  Just to be clear, there are 2 different strikes, the writers' strike that you're referring to, and the actors' strike that the parent is referring to. AI issues notwithstanding, I do think you make a valid point that over the past 10 years we just binged on a huge amount of content. For workers it's a double-edged sword. I read somewhere that there are actually a lot more members of the union (can't remember if it was writers or actors) than 5-6 years ago because there are just a lot more people working in the industry - a lot more content was being made. The downside is that with all this extra competition there is a glut of supply and thus prices (i.e. wages for actors and writers) have fallen pretty substantially.
  - matwood 3y ago
    Good point. I viewed the strikes as joint strikes. And yeah, 0% rates made it dirt cheap for companies like Netflix to churn out a new series every single day in some cases. Studios other than Netflix and Amazon are probably happy for rising rates and the strikes to pause the insane amount of content spend that has occurred over the last decade. Obviously the writers and actors are going to get hit in this reset.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
People here are being complacent. I’m willing to bet all my money that a savvy startup will log all your keystrokes and train an AI model on all the code you’ve ever written - for your employer or otherwise - and create an AI agent that can code just like you. You will no longer be needed. And it will be far easier to implement than an AI actor. All of it will happen within 10 years. Which, as far as job security goes, isn’t a whole bunch of time.
- wiseowise 3y ago
  What makes you think that? Seriously, what kind of job do you do on a day to day basis to even remotely consider possibility of this?
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    You’re really underestimating the incentives at play and the amount of change that can happen in 10 years.
- ke88y 3y ago
  > I’m willing to bet all my money that a savvy startup will log all your keystrokes and train an AI model on all the code you’ve ever written - for your employer or otherwise - and create an AI agent that can code just like you. You will no longer be needed. 1. I write very little code myself these days, and I'm pretty certain that LLMs are a very long way off from doing my type of science. 2. The type of code that LLMs can automate today is, to be frank, a waste of human capital anyways. 3. Good. Programming is a bottle neck for a lot of efforts that would substantially improve the human condition. Freezing software engineering at 2023 is weird and regressive. I'm all for upending wage-based employment and huge parts of financial capitalism. Luddite labor movements aren't the way forward.
OJFord 3y ago
But who has the budget for particularly recognisable extras anyway? It's not like famous enough to be mass-recognisable actors are getting paid to be extras anyway, and why would you bother to copy someone unknown's likeness when you can just have your AI generate something new anyway? And I'm not convinced you'd want recognisable extras, it'd be distracting wouldn't it? And detract from who your actual stars are when they don't have more of a part?
- hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
  "recognizability" has nothing to do with why actors are striking. If I'm a background actor, of course I want to get paid to be in multiple movies instead of just getting paid once to serve as AI training data. Plus, many famous actors started out in bit background parts, and there is a valid fear this is "pulling up the ladder". Brad Pitt's first movie role was as an uncredited waiter in the 1987 film No Man's Land, for which he was almost fired trying to ad lib a line (i.e. to "upgrade" his part to a speaking role).
  - OJFord 3y ago
    But my point is why is that the alternative? Why am I training my AI on anonymous jobbing actors whom I have to pay per use, instead of any old anonymous generative face? There are already film trailer-esque videos of 'people' generated by Midjourney or similar, and then some other image->video processor, on YouTube.
    - sb8244 3y ago
      Maybe they'd strike for that to not happen. Actors will be involved in 99.9% of productions, and people will always be involved. Are they in union with those actors?
      - OJFord 3y ago
        They should strike to be paid twice when stunt or likeness (for 'clone' type scenes) doubles are in use too. I don't think it's at all obvious a significant number of the rest would care never mind want to strike on their behalf. We're not even talking just about properly famous 'made it' actors, we're talking about anyone with a speaking part, or just more of an obvious or interactive role... It'd be like software engineers (from nobody in particular like me, to big recognisable names) striking over office cleaners' fear they're being replaced with Roombas.
creeble 3y ago
I don’t think they need your likeness for an extra. They can just create an army of AI extras and use them without paying for anyone’s likeness. That’s my understanding of the strike anyway.
- anigbrowl 3y ago
  AI extras are not that great, or studios/production companies wouldn't be trying to get full scans of background actors.
- mrguyorama 3y ago
  And that has been done before (pretty much any movie with a crowd just duplicates extras or invents people) but these background, not famous actors, who do a lot of work that people don't seem to realize in order to make a movie feel more real, get paid average worker wages, which is fine. But film companies were requesting jobs that included "we take a comprehensive copy of your likeness as an 'AI' whatever, and pay you for ONE DAY of work, and then instead of hiring you we just use that likeness in perpetuity, for the rest of time, and you don't get a dime for it" That just doesn't make any sense IMO. It would be equivalent to a song writer training a LLM on just a single artist's songs and refusing to pay any sort of licensing or royalty.
- djbusby 3y ago
  Like the Orc army in the LOTR movies?

by sb8244 3y ago

Imagine that your likeness as an extra is sold for $250, used in future films via AI deep fake, and you never get paid again. That's my understanding of why they're striking.

matwood 3y ago

That's a bit of it. The more immediate term is a studio who can feed in all the scripts they have ever received then have a single writer use an LLM and make more scripts. Eventually they wouldn't need a writer, just a person good at prompts. The problem is the writers have zero leverage. We just came out of a time of huge overspending on content where we all have thousands of hours we still haven't watched. Adding AI is on the rise and the writers may never get back what they had pre-strike. Similar thing happened last time which led to the rise in reality TV.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
Just to be clear, there are 2 different strikes, the writers' strike that you're referring to, and the actors' strike that the parent is referring to. AI issues notwithstanding, I do think you make a valid point that over the past 10 years we just binged on a huge amount of content. For workers it's a double-edged sword. I read somewhere that there are actually a lot more members of the union (can't remember if it was writers or actors) than 5-6 years ago because there are just a lot more people working in the industry - a lot more content was being made. The downside is that with all this extra competition there is a glut of supply and thus prices (i.e. wages for actors and writers) have fallen pretty substantially.
- matwood 3y ago
  Good point. I viewed the strikes as joint strikes. And yeah, 0% rates made it dirt cheap for companies like Netflix to churn out a new series every single day in some cases. Studios other than Netflix and Amazon are probably happy for rising rates and the strikes to pause the insane amount of content spend that has occurred over the last decade. Obviously the writers and actors are going to get hit in this reset.

spaceman_2020 3y ago

People here are being complacent. I’m willing to bet all my money that a savvy startup will log all your keystrokes and train an AI model on all the code you’ve ever written - for your employer or otherwise - and create an AI agent that can code just like you. You will no longer be needed. And it will be far easier to implement than an AI actor. All of it will happen within 10 years. Which, as far as job security goes, isn’t a whole bunch of time.

wiseowise 3y ago
What makes you think that? Seriously, what kind of job do you do on a day to day basis to even remotely consider possibility of this?
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  You’re really underestimating the incentives at play and the amount of change that can happen in 10 years.
ke88y 3y ago
> I’m willing to bet all my money that a savvy startup will log all your keystrokes and train an AI model on all the code you’ve ever written - for your employer or otherwise - and create an AI agent that can code just like you. You will no longer be needed. 1. I write very little code myself these days, and I'm pretty certain that LLMs are a very long way off from doing my type of science. 2. The type of code that LLMs can automate today is, to be frank, a waste of human capital anyways. 3. Good. Programming is a bottle neck for a lot of efforts that would substantially improve the human condition. Freezing software engineering at 2023 is weird and regressive. I'm all for upending wage-based employment and huge parts of financial capitalism. Luddite labor movements aren't the way forward.

OJFord 3y ago

But who has the budget for particularly recognisable extras anyway? It's not like famous enough to be mass-recognisable actors are getting paid to be extras anyway, and why would you bother to copy someone unknown's likeness when you can just have your AI generate something new anyway? And I'm not convinced you'd want recognisable extras, it'd be distracting wouldn't it? And detract from who your actual stars are when they don't have more of a part?

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
"recognizability" has nothing to do with why actors are striking. If I'm a background actor, of course I want to get paid to be in multiple movies instead of just getting paid once to serve as AI training data. Plus, many famous actors started out in bit background parts, and there is a valid fear this is "pulling up the ladder". Brad Pitt's first movie role was as an uncredited waiter in the 1987 film No Man's Land, for which he was almost fired trying to ad lib a line (i.e. to "upgrade" his part to a speaking role).
- OJFord 3y ago
  But my point is why is that the alternative? Why am I training my AI on anonymous jobbing actors whom I have to pay per use, instead of any old anonymous generative face? There are already film trailer-esque videos of 'people' generated by Midjourney or similar, and then some other image->video processor, on YouTube.
  - sb8244 3y ago
    Maybe they'd strike for that to not happen. Actors will be involved in 99.9% of productions, and people will always be involved. Are they in union with those actors?
    - OJFord 3y ago
      They should strike to be paid twice when stunt or likeness (for 'clone' type scenes) doubles are in use too. I don't think it's at all obvious a significant number of the rest would care never mind want to strike on their behalf. We're not even talking just about properly famous 'made it' actors, we're talking about anyone with a speaking part, or just more of an obvious or interactive role... It'd be like software engineers (from nobody in particular like me, to big recognisable names) striking over office cleaners' fear they're being replaced with Roombas.

creeble 3y ago

I don’t think they need your likeness for an extra. They can just create an army of AI extras and use them without paying for anyone’s likeness. That’s my understanding of the strike anyway.

anigbrowl 3y ago
AI extras are not that great, or studios/production companies wouldn't be trying to get full scans of background actors.
mrguyorama 3y ago
And that has been done before (pretty much any movie with a crowd just duplicates extras or invents people) but these background, not famous actors, who do a lot of work that people don't seem to realize in order to make a movie feel more real, get paid average worker wages, which is fine. But film companies were requesting jobs that included "we take a comprehensive copy of your likeness as an 'AI' whatever, and pay you for ONE DAY of work, and then instead of hiring you we just use that likeness in perpetuity, for the rest of time, and you don't get a dime for it" That just doesn't make any sense IMO. It would be equivalent to a song writer training a LLM on just a single artist's songs and refusing to pay any sort of licensing or royalty.
djbusby 3y ago
Like the Orc army in the LOTR movies?