5 ms·

> One trick pony. Care to explain? Because by this metric every carmaker is a one trick pony. Tesla even more so.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Tesla innovates at a rapid pace, even if judging solely on the battery architecture and cell chemistry between their platforms over the last decade. The tech in my 2021 and 2023 Ys is far superior to my earlier 2018 S and X. The jump in tech from v1 Superchargers to v4 is material. Toyota invented the hybrid drive when the US was encouraging higher fuel standards with policy (and Toyota was concerned about being left behind), and have barely put forth a half hearted effort to build EVs. Their earlier compliance car RAV4 EVs used Tesla drivetrains, for example. Meanwhile, Tesla sells almost 2 million EVs a year and continues to ramp manufacturing. Toyota manufactures press releases. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-before-the-real-history-of-the-toyota-prius/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-be... https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesla-to-make-a-disappointing-electric-rav4/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesl...
- _hypx 3y ago
  Tesla is the ultimate one-trick pony. There will come a day when the BEV is abandoned. Tesla has shown no ability to move past that event. Toyota will make whatever car is in demand in the future.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    You are aware that there is no hydrogen refueling infrastructure in most of the developed world and lots of jurisdictions have banned new combustion vehicle sales between now and 2035, yeah? What proven technology would you use besides batteries? Hydrogen infra that doesn’t exist? Toyota isn’t dying tomorrow, but if they don’t switch to BEVs, they’ll die like Kodak or Xerox. There is no light vehicle hydrogen future.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      We can build hydrogen infrastructure if we had to. None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035, at least not without massive loopholes. We will be driving ICE cars for a very long time to come. The correct pathway is finding a sustainable alternative to ICE cars that could happen organically, not fantasize about instantly turning everything into a zero emissions car tomorrow. Tesla is the company that is going to die. The BEV is not going to be the only car in the future, nor will last forever. If anything, it is an outdated idea, and was an overreaction to the 2000s oil shock. Toyota will just make whatever cars people want.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        > None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035 Many of the bans are happening by 2030. In Norway, 83% of new cars are already BEVs. I don't think they will look back, the market will make selling new ICEs in that country at least, impractical. Hydrogen probably has a future in goods transportation (trucking), but even there they have to compete with a fully electrified rail system that goes to the arctic circle.
        _hypx 3y ago
        And either be reversed or will have loopholes. And Norway is one (small) country that is not representative of the rest of the world. And I don't think the political situation in Europe is all that stable either. A lot of the movement in European politics is about abandoning many of these absurd green energy ideas. Hydrogen will just take over at some point simply because it is the only sustainable idea.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        > Hydrogen will just take over at some point simply because it is the only sustainable idea. Hydrogen is a horrible idea for personal vehicles: it takes a bunch of new expensive infrastructure to even get going (gas stations, but with compressed hydrogen tanks), it is energy inefficient (a lot of energy lost in compression, keeping it compressed, and then turning it in to electrons). It is just not economically viable when compared to BEVs where the biggest worry is finding a power plug. It might make sense for trucking given its power to weight density, and the fact that trucks can have huge hydrogen tanks without much consequence.
  - TheRealSteel 3y ago
    What do you think is going to replace BEVs?
    - _hypx 3y ago
      In the long-run, likely FCEVs. They are also EVs, just without the huge batteries. Advances in production are likely to reduce cost to ICE car levels. Advances in hydrogen production will make green hydrogen follow the curve of wind and solar, which is extremely cheap.
- martin8412 3y ago
  Tesla model 2023 is worse than earlier years simply because they removed USS.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Sales and revenue matter, opinions don’t. USS deprecation is unfortunate, but they still sell the cars so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tesla innovates at a rapid pace, even if judging solely on the battery architecture and cell chemistry between their platforms over the last decade. The tech in my 2021 and 2023 Ys is far superior to my earlier 2018 S and X. The jump in tech from v1 Superchargers to v4 is material. Toyota invented the hybrid drive when the US was encouraging higher fuel standards with policy (and Toyota was concerned about being left behind), and have barely put forth a half hearted effort to build EVs. Their earlier compliance car RAV4 EVs used Tesla drivetrains, for example. Meanwhile, Tesla sells almost 2 million EVs a year and continues to ramp manufacturing. Toyota manufactures press releases. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-before-the-real-history-of-the-toyota-prius/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-be... https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesla-to-make-a-disappointing-electric-rav4/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesl...

_hypx 3y ago
Tesla is the ultimate one-trick pony. There will come a day when the BEV is abandoned. Tesla has shown no ability to move past that event. Toyota will make whatever car is in demand in the future.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  You are aware that there is no hydrogen refueling infrastructure in most of the developed world and lots of jurisdictions have banned new combustion vehicle sales between now and 2035, yeah? What proven technology would you use besides batteries? Hydrogen infra that doesn’t exist? Toyota isn’t dying tomorrow, but if they don’t switch to BEVs, they’ll die like Kodak or Xerox. There is no light vehicle hydrogen future.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    We can build hydrogen infrastructure if we had to. None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035, at least not without massive loopholes. We will be driving ICE cars for a very long time to come. The correct pathway is finding a sustainable alternative to ICE cars that could happen organically, not fantasize about instantly turning everything into a zero emissions car tomorrow. Tesla is the company that is going to die. The BEV is not going to be the only car in the future, nor will last forever. If anything, it is an outdated idea, and was an overreaction to the 2000s oil shock. Toyota will just make whatever cars people want.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      > None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035 Many of the bans are happening by 2030. In Norway, 83% of new cars are already BEVs. I don't think they will look back, the market will make selling new ICEs in that country at least, impractical. Hydrogen probably has a future in goods transportation (trucking), but even there they have to compete with a fully electrified rail system that goes to the arctic circle.
      - _hypx 3y ago
        And either be reversed or will have loopholes. And Norway is one (small) country that is not representative of the rest of the world. And I don't think the political situation in Europe is all that stable either. A lot of the movement in European politics is about abandoning many of these absurd green energy ideas. Hydrogen will just take over at some point simply because it is the only sustainable idea.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        > Hydrogen will just take over at some point simply because it is the only sustainable idea. Hydrogen is a horrible idea for personal vehicles: it takes a bunch of new expensive infrastructure to even get going (gas stations, but with compressed hydrogen tanks), it is energy inefficient (a lot of energy lost in compression, keeping it compressed, and then turning it in to electrons). It is just not economically viable when compared to BEVs where the biggest worry is finding a power plug. It might make sense for trucking given its power to weight density, and the fact that trucks can have huge hydrogen tanks without much consequence.
- TheRealSteel 3y ago
  What do you think is going to replace BEVs?
  - _hypx 3y ago
    In the long-run, likely FCEVs. They are also EVs, just without the huge batteries. Advances in production are likely to reduce cost to ICE car levels. Advances in hydrogen production will make green hydrogen follow the curve of wind and solar, which is extremely cheap.
martin8412 3y ago
Tesla model 2023 is worse than earlier years simply because they removed USS.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Sales and revenue matter, opinions don’t. USS deprecation is unfortunate, but they still sell the cars so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯