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>Toyota somehow develop this magical battery for an EV but forgot to develop an EV. The Prius in 1997 doesn't count? Sure it was a Hybrid mainly because of no

>Toyota somehow develop this magical battery for an EV but forgot to develop an EV. The Prius in 1997 doesn't count? Sure it was a Hybrid mainly because of no charging network. A decade before Tesla. And selling ever since. They could have a dozen models in development ready to release who knows. It's a huge company.

TheRealSteel 3y ago
No, it doesn't count, as the Prius in 1997 was entirely powered by petrol. It was a great car. I drove a Prius for ten years and only sold it because I moved overseas. But it was no EV. Even the plugin Prius is not what we mean when we say 'EV'.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
toomuchtodo 3y ago
One trick pony. Been sitting on their hands since the hybrid synergy drive.
- bentcorner 3y ago
  > One trick pony. Care to explain? Because by this metric every carmaker is a one trick pony. Tesla even more so.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Tesla innovates at a rapid pace, even if judging solely on the battery architecture and cell chemistry between their platforms over the last decade. The tech in my 2021 and 2023 Ys is far superior to my earlier 2018 S and X. The jump in tech from v1 Superchargers to v4 is material. Toyota invented the hybrid drive when the US was encouraging higher fuel standards with policy (and Toyota was concerned about being left behind), and have barely put forth a half hearted effort to build EVs. Their earlier compliance car RAV4 EVs used Tesla drivetrains, for example. Meanwhile, Tesla sells almost 2 million EVs a year and continues to ramp manufacturing. Toyota manufactures press releases. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-before-the-real-history-of-the-toyota-prius/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-be... https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesla-to-make-a-disappointing-electric-rav4/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesl...
    - _hypx 3y ago
      Tesla is the ultimate one-trick pony. There will come a day when the BEV is abandoned. Tesla has shown no ability to move past that event. Toyota will make whatever car is in demand in the future.
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        You are aware that there is no hydrogen refueling infrastructure in most of the developed world and lots of jurisdictions have banned new combustion vehicle sales between now and 2035, yeah? What proven technology would you use besides batteries? Hydrogen infra that doesn’t exist? Toyota isn’t dying tomorrow, but if they don’t switch to BEVs, they’ll die like Kodak or Xerox. There is no light vehicle hydrogen future.
        _hypx 3y ago
        We can build hydrogen infrastructure if we had to. None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035, at least not without massive loopholes. We will be driving ICE cars for a very long time to come. The correct pathway is finding a sustainable alternative to ICE cars that could happen organically, not fantasize about instantly turning everything into a zero emissions car tomorrow. Tesla is the company that is going to die. The BEV is not going to be the only car in the future, nor will last forever. If anything, it is an outdated idea, and was an overreaction to the 2000s oil shock. Toyota will just make whatever cars people want.
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        > None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035 Many of the bans are happening by 2030. In Norway, 83% of new cars are already BEVs. I don't think they will look back, the market will make selling new ICEs in that country at least, impractical. Hydrogen probably has a future in goods transportation (trucking), but even there they have to compete with a fully electrified rail system that goes to the arctic circle.
scythe 3y ago
The Prius has also been a PHEV for years now. I doubt it would require a huge change in manufacturing processes to make a pure EV version. But it's manufacturing the actual battery modules that has been the hard problem for Tesla competitors as I understand it. I guess it's not surprising if so that Toyota would want to have their technology choice set for a while before ramping that up, since it probably affects many of the surrounding design choices.
- Tagbert 3y ago
  It is hard to develop the knowledge and processes to build batteries effectively. You need to start doing it and refine your process as you learn more and expand capacity along the way. Tesla went through this phase several years ago. GM, Ford, and others are currently in this phase. They will work out the kinks. Toyota won’t learn how to do this until they actually start building batteries at scale and work out the process using the continuous improvement techniques that they learned from Deming.
  - epolanski 3y ago
    Investing in electric engines is still much cheaper than investing in combustion engines. As a reference, R&D for Mercedes' 2017+ OM654 diesel engine alone costed the company 3.5 B $. And that amount is relatively low because Mercedes had a huge know how in building diesel engines. But in EV those amounts are much smaller, catching up is no longer a matter of decades and hundreds of billions, but years and ten times smaller investments (see Korea). This is why China was never competitive in the ICE era, but companies like BYD are booming. Also, I strongly believe that from now to 2035 multiple companies will be selling their electric powertrains to dozens of different automakers.
    - fomine3 3y ago
      Cheap for developing, expensive for massive manufacturing. That's what developed world company doesn't want.
adolph 3y ago
There is a good Munro and Assoc video going into the packaging differences between ICE and EV vehicles. The Prius (of which I am a happy operator) is ICEV packaging-wise. The battery is relatively high, small and not integrated into the frame. As a huge company Toyota may well have the people with ideas about EV transition. Unfortunately as a huge company there are a thousand interests that will be harmed by EV transition. Can Toyota (or VW, MB, Stellantis, etc) overcome those internal conflicts to produce something out of their wheelhouse? Or will it take an acquisition that moves with distinct branding that eventually becomes the entire company?
rootusrootus 3y ago
> The Prius in 1997 doesn't count? Sure it was a Hybrid mainly because of no charging network. A hybrid is not an EV. It gets 100% of its energy from gasoline. Plug-in hybrids have a better claim to being an EV.
- asantos3 3y ago
  Prius has a PHEV version...
  - stubish 3y ago
    Not in 1997. And they still don't sell the PHEV in my region in 2023, just the non-EV hybrids.
pornel 3y ago
Nokia, Palm, Blackberry, and Microsoft had years of experience making smartphones… In hybrids the electric motor doesn’t have to be maximally efficient, because the electric range is only a nice to have, not the key selling point. Hybrid battery density doesn’t matter much, because it’s 1/10th of BEV's size anyway. In hybrids the charging speed can be an abysmal trickle, and still suffice to charge the tiny battery. In BEV you need to work with 4x higher voltages, 10x higher wattage, and push thermal management to the limits. That’s why bz4x sucks. Its efficiency is meh. It charges at below average speeds, and still overheats.
- epolanski 3y ago
  In hybrids the battery is used primarily to lower average fuel consumption and lower (a lot) noise and fuel consumption in cities (where hybrids run generally a large amount of time on electric).
  - robocat 3y ago
    Maybe for modern hybrids. For my 2005 Hybrid, the engine is an Atkinson cycle engine and that is where most of the efficiency gains come from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_AZ_engine#2AZ-FXE https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_AZ_engine#2AZ-FXE “The large valve overlap leads to a reduction in cylinder charge and reduced torque and power output, but efficiency is increased. This combination makes the 2AZ-FXE suitable for use only in hybrid vehicles, where peak torque and power demands can be met by the electric motor and battery.” So the hybrid battery is used for acceleration. Note that my Hybrid battery is a 200V 50Wh Nickel metal hydride battery - Note I think Toyota Hybrids didn’t start using Lithium batteries until late 2010’s). When town driving it doesn’t seem to me that the regenerative braking makes much difference: It is very noticeable that the engine is in use during acceleration from a dead-stop. Certainly regeneration is insignificant on hills because the

TheRealSteel 3y ago

No, it doesn't count, as the Prius in 1997 was entirely powered by petrol. It was a great car. I drove a Prius for ten years and only sold it because I moved overseas. But it was no EV. Even the plugin Prius is not what we mean when we say 'EV'.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

toomuchtodo 3y ago

One trick pony. Been sitting on their hands since the hybrid synergy drive.

bentcorner 3y ago
> One trick pony. Care to explain? Because by this metric every carmaker is a one trick pony. Tesla even more so.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Tesla innovates at a rapid pace, even if judging solely on the battery architecture and cell chemistry between their platforms over the last decade. The tech in my 2021 and 2023 Ys is far superior to my earlier 2018 S and X. The jump in tech from v1 Superchargers to v4 is material. Toyota invented the hybrid drive when the US was encouraging higher fuel standards with policy (and Toyota was concerned about being left behind), and have barely put forth a half hearted effort to build EVs. Their earlier compliance car RAV4 EVs used Tesla drivetrains, for example. Meanwhile, Tesla sells almost 2 million EVs a year and continues to ramp manufacturing. Toyota manufactures press releases. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-before-the-real-history-of-the-toyota-prius/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377976/what-came-be... https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesla-to-make-a-disappointing-electric-rav4/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/toyota-once-partnered-with-tesl...
  - _hypx 3y ago
    Tesla is the ultimate one-trick pony. There will come a day when the BEV is abandoned. Tesla has shown no ability to move past that event. Toyota will make whatever car is in demand in the future.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      You are aware that there is no hydrogen refueling infrastructure in most of the developed world and lots of jurisdictions have banned new combustion vehicle sales between now and 2035, yeah? What proven technology would you use besides batteries? Hydrogen infra that doesn’t exist? Toyota isn’t dying tomorrow, but if they don’t switch to BEVs, they’ll die like Kodak or Xerox. There is no light vehicle hydrogen future.
      - _hypx 3y ago
        We can build hydrogen infrastructure if we had to. None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035, at least not without massive loopholes. We will be driving ICE cars for a very long time to come. The correct pathway is finding a sustainable alternative to ICE cars that could happen organically, not fantasize about instantly turning everything into a zero emissions car tomorrow. Tesla is the company that is going to die. The BEV is not going to be the only car in the future, nor will last forever. If anything, it is an outdated idea, and was an overreaction to the 2000s oil shock. Toyota will just make whatever cars people want.
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        > None of those ICE bans are going to happen by 2035 Many of the bans are happening by 2030. In Norway, 83% of new cars are already BEVs. I don't think they will look back, the market will make selling new ICEs in that country at least, impractical. Hydrogen probably has a future in goods transportation (trucking), but even there they have to compete with a fully electrified rail system that goes to the arctic circle.

scythe 3y ago

The Prius has also been a PHEV for years now. I doubt it would require a huge change in manufacturing processes to make a pure EV version. But it's manufacturing the actual battery modules that has been the hard problem for Tesla competitors as I understand it. I guess it's not surprising if so that Toyota would want to have their technology choice set for a while before ramping that up, since it probably affects many of the surrounding design choices.

Tagbert 3y ago
It is hard to develop the knowledge and processes to build batteries effectively. You need to start doing it and refine your process as you learn more and expand capacity along the way. Tesla went through this phase several years ago. GM, Ford, and others are currently in this phase. They will work out the kinks. Toyota won’t learn how to do this until they actually start building batteries at scale and work out the process using the continuous improvement techniques that they learned from Deming.
- epolanski 3y ago
  Investing in electric engines is still much cheaper than investing in combustion engines. As a reference, R&D for Mercedes' 2017+ OM654 diesel engine alone costed the company 3.5 B $. And that amount is relatively low because Mercedes had a huge know how in building diesel engines. But in EV those amounts are much smaller, catching up is no longer a matter of decades and hundreds of billions, but years and ten times smaller investments (see Korea). This is why China was never competitive in the ICE era, but companies like BYD are booming. Also, I strongly believe that from now to 2035 multiple companies will be selling their electric powertrains to dozens of different automakers.
  - fomine3 3y ago
    Cheap for developing, expensive for massive manufacturing. That's what developed world company doesn't want.

adolph 3y ago

There is a good Munro and Assoc video going into the packaging differences between ICE and EV vehicles. The Prius (of which I am a happy operator) is ICEV packaging-wise. The battery is relatively high, small and not integrated into the frame. As a huge company Toyota may well have the people with ideas about EV transition. Unfortunately as a huge company there are a thousand interests that will be harmed by EV transition. Can Toyota (or VW, MB, Stellantis, etc) overcome those internal conflicts to produce something out of their wheelhouse? Or will it take an acquisition that moves with distinct branding that eventually becomes the entire company?

rootusrootus 3y ago

> The Prius in 1997 doesn't count? Sure it was a Hybrid mainly because of no charging network. A hybrid is not an EV. It gets 100% of its energy from gasoline. Plug-in hybrids have a better claim to being an EV.

asantos3 3y ago
Prius has a PHEV version...
- stubish 3y ago
  Not in 1997. And they still don't sell the PHEV in my region in 2023, just the non-EV hybrids.

pornel 3y ago

Nokia, Palm, Blackberry, and Microsoft had years of experience making smartphones… In hybrids the electric motor doesn’t have to be maximally efficient, because the electric range is only a nice to have, not the key selling point. Hybrid battery density doesn’t matter much, because it’s 1/10th of BEV's size anyway. In hybrids the charging speed can be an abysmal trickle, and still suffice to charge the tiny battery. In BEV you need to work with 4x higher voltages, 10x higher wattage, and push thermal management to the limits. That’s why bz4x sucks. Its efficiency is meh. It charges at below average speeds, and still overheats.

epolanski 3y ago
In hybrids the battery is used primarily to lower average fuel consumption and lower (a lot) noise and fuel consumption in cities (where hybrids run generally a large amount of time on electric).
- robocat 3y ago
  Maybe for modern hybrids. For my 2005 Hybrid, the engine is an Atkinson cycle engine and that is where most of the efficiency gains come from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_AZ_engine#2AZ-FXE https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_AZ_engine#2AZ-FXE “The large valve overlap leads to a reduction in cylinder charge and reduced torque and power output, but efficiency is increased. This combination makes the 2AZ-FXE suitable for use only in hybrid vehicles, where peak torque and power demands can be met by the electric motor and battery.” So the hybrid battery is used for acceleration. Note that my Hybrid battery is a 200V 50Wh Nickel metal hydride battery - Note I think Toyota Hybrids didn’t start using Lithium batteries until late 2010’s). When town driving it doesn’t seem to me that the regenerative braking makes much difference: It is very noticeable that the engine is in use during acceleration from a dead-stop. Certainly regeneration is insignificant on hills because the