3 ms·

Even if it was true, by 2027-28 the market will be completely lost for Toyota and probably, every Western brand except Tesla.

lofaszvanitt 3y ago
EU will ban the sale of gasoline fueled cars in 2035, there is plenty of time.
worrycue 3y ago
Why? At the end of the day if they can produce a good car at a good price by the time EV hit mass adoption / ICEs get banned, they will be fine. I don’t understand why people think just because you are late to market means you can’t get market share - or even dominate. Cars aren’t operating systems or social media platforms, there is no network effect. Heck, Toyota entered the US car market when US manufacturers like GM and Ford were long established.
- anovikov 3y ago
  Because they will need some kind of advantage. Tesla has been on it for like, 10 years longer than anyone else so they have an advantage of learning curve. China has advantage of established production chain and low costs. Toyota has none. If they try to seriously compete they will just spend all money in 2-3 years and go bust.
  - lofaszvanitt 3y ago
    Do people really believe, that everyone will drive a Tesla? People need stimulation, variety and there are multitude of other factors that weigh in on their buying preferences.
  - worrycue 3y ago
    GM and Ford were also at it for decades before Toyota even existed ... The idea that Tesla and China's head start is insurmountable needs justification.
    - anovikov 3y ago
      Toyota at that point had a huge cost advantage because their labor was many times cheaper than American, even bigger advantage than China has today. They were not unionised and worked almost for food, as Japan was still poor and half-wrecked after WWII. And it was the time when an assembly line worker in the U.S. with Homer Simpson level of education attainment could buy a 4-bedroom home on a single income. So they managed to squeeze in in spite of America having a huge head start, much like China did with Tesla. Today's Japan is nothing like that.
      - worrycue 3y ago
        But we are talking about "learning curves" and "supply chains". You still haven't explained why they won't be able to catch up and make a good affordable EV.
        anovikov 3y ago
        Because you need something to begin. Either a learning advantage (build better stuff as cheap as others can build crappy one because of less trial and error involved), or a cost advantage (but crappy stuff but cheaply due to lower costs and thus win market share). Not having either, they will have to compete head-on, and simple comparison of valuations and thus WACCs of Tesla vs Toyota clearly shows that if they try to compete, they will be drained and bankrupt very quickly. I think they will eventually not try. They see the writing on the wall and know they will be bankrupt and dissolved in some years. Thus spreading FUD about EVs plus promising much better EV of their own to simply slow down this process to make some final bucks before going bust. That is the smartest thing they can do at this point.
        worrycue 3y ago
        > Because you need something to begin They have experience with electric drive trains/motors with the hydrogen vehicles and experience with batteries with their (plugin) hybrids. They just haven't bothered to release a full EV for whatever reason. Maybe they don't think it will be profitable at the moment and it will hurt sales of more profitable existing product lines. > Thus spreading FUD about EVs Are they wrong about their concerns over the supply of lithium? Or that for many people EV won't be an option - due to lack of infrastructure in their countries, range issues, ... etc.
magicalhippo 3y ago
In 2022, 80% of new cars sold in Norway were EVs[1]. Even in our most cold and remote region, Finnmark, over 50% of new cars were EVs. All on the top 10 list are BEVs. Of the top 10, five were German models. The top two, ID.4 and Enyaq are essentially the same car and combined outsold the only Tesla model, Model Y. Yes Tesla has a tech advantage currently. Their advantage isn't magic though, and for some people other things matter more. However I will agree that Toyota has some serious work ahead to get back into the lead here in Norway. [1]: https://elbil.no/hele-10-pa-topp-lista-er-elektrisk/ https://elbil.no/hele-10-pa-topp-lista-er-elektrisk/

lofaszvanitt 3y ago

EU will ban the sale of gasoline fueled cars in 2035, there is plenty of time.

worrycue 3y ago

Why? At the end of the day if they can produce a good car at a good price by the time EV hit mass adoption / ICEs get banned, they will be fine. I don’t understand why people think just because you are late to market means you can’t get market share - or even dominate. Cars aren’t operating systems or social media platforms, there is no network effect. Heck, Toyota entered the US car market when US manufacturers like GM and Ford were long established.

anovikov 3y ago
Because they will need some kind of advantage. Tesla has been on it for like, 10 years longer than anyone else so they have an advantage of learning curve. China has advantage of established production chain and low costs. Toyota has none. If they try to seriously compete they will just spend all money in 2-3 years and go bust.
- lofaszvanitt 3y ago
  Do people really believe, that everyone will drive a Tesla? People need stimulation, variety and there are multitude of other factors that weigh in on their buying preferences.
- worrycue 3y ago
  GM and Ford were also at it for decades before Toyota even existed ... The idea that Tesla and China's head start is insurmountable needs justification.
  - anovikov 3y ago
    Toyota at that point had a huge cost advantage because their labor was many times cheaper than American, even bigger advantage than China has today. They were not unionised and worked almost for food, as Japan was still poor and half-wrecked after WWII. And it was the time when an assembly line worker in the U.S. with Homer Simpson level of education attainment could buy a 4-bedroom home on a single income. So they managed to squeeze in in spite of America having a huge head start, much like China did with Tesla. Today's Japan is nothing like that.
    - worrycue 3y ago
      But we are talking about "learning curves" and "supply chains". You still haven't explained why they won't be able to catch up and make a good affordable EV.
      - anovikov 3y ago
        Because you need something to begin. Either a learning advantage (build better stuff as cheap as others can build crappy one because of less trial and error involved), or a cost advantage (but crappy stuff but cheaply due to lower costs and thus win market share). Not having either, they will have to compete head-on, and simple comparison of valuations and thus WACCs of Tesla vs Toyota clearly shows that if they try to compete, they will be drained and bankrupt very quickly. I think they will eventually not try. They see the writing on the wall and know they will be bankrupt and dissolved in some years. Thus spreading FUD about EVs plus promising much better EV of their own to simply slow down this process to make some final bucks before going bust. That is the smartest thing they can do at this point.
        worrycue 3y ago
        > Because you need something to begin They have experience with electric drive trains/motors with the hydrogen vehicles and experience with batteries with their (plugin) hybrids. They just haven't bothered to release a full EV for whatever reason. Maybe they don't think it will be profitable at the moment and it will hurt sales of more profitable existing product lines. > Thus spreading FUD about EVs Are they wrong about their concerns over the supply of lithium? Or that for many people EV won't be an option - due to lack of infrastructure in their countries, range issues, ... etc.

magicalhippo 3y ago

In 2022, 80% of new cars sold in Norway were EVs[1]. Even in our most cold and remote region, Finnmark, over 50% of new cars were EVs. All on the top 10 list are BEVs. Of the top 10, five were German models. The top two, ID.4 and Enyaq are essentially the same car and combined outsold the only Tesla model, Model Y. Yes Tesla has a tech advantage currently. Their advantage isn't magic though, and for some people other things matter more. However I will agree that Toyota has some serious work ahead to get back into the lead here in Norway. [1]: https://elbil.no/hele-10-pa-topp-lista-er-elektrisk/ https://elbil.no/hele-10-pa-topp-lista-er-elektrisk/