6 ms·

Amazon is getting ready to launch a lot of broadband satellites

43 points by LinuxBender 3y ago

philwelch 3y ago
...assuming the launch vehicles are good to go. > All told, Amazon has purchased 77 launches: 38 Vulcan launches, plus nine flights on ULA's soon-to-retire Atlas V, 18 Ariane 6 rockets, and 12 New Glenn missions, with a contract option for 15 more. All three of the new launch vehicles have seen repeated delays. Also note that Vulcan and New Glenn both use Blue Origin's BE-4 engine.
- eco 3y ago
  > Also note that Vulcan and New Glenn both use Blue Origin's BE-4 engine. One of those engines destined for Vulcan's maiden flight exploded during qualification testing recently. I think a lot will have to go right going forward for Amazon to reach the July 2026 deadline for half deployment.
- allenrb 3y ago
  I will bet a nice, cold beer that some of those satellites end up riding to orbit on top of Falcon 9 rockets. Too much has to go absolutely right for them otherwise. No doubt this will irritate Jeff to no end. I hear he’s not a big SpaceX fan.
  - philwelch 3y ago
    I would be shocked if this happened unless Amazon’s hand was somehow forced by shareholders. Even if none of the rockets fly when Amazon expects them to, it’s more likely for Amazon to quietly drop the whole project than go to SpaceX. It’s going to take years of delays for Amazon to realize that their launch partners aren’t gonna work out, and by then the market opportunity will be over. Frankly, the whole satellite deal always smelled like self-dealing to me in the first place.
binkHN 3y ago
Does anyone know how many satellites before things get too crowded? 100,000? 1 million?
- asynchronous 3y ago
  Space is really, really big. And, orbits can happen at different distances from the Earth. As long as we don’t overcommit LEO satellites we can keep putting things in GEO orbit for probably a very long time.
- Retric 3y ago
  Depends on execution, we could have billions of satellites without huge problems. But Kessler syndrome could happen even just with the amount of satellites already in orbit if people had been actively malicious. So, the “limits” are mostly just a question of what assumptions you’re making.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > Kessler syndrome could happen even just with the amount of satellite Kessler as in a catastrophic loss of satellites. In LEO, it wouldn’t be a denial of space programme, nor even a systemic issue—there aren’t high enough orbital energies.
    - Retric 3y ago
      Kessler syndrome is both loss of satellites but also rendering orbits unavailable. My comment was presupposing malicious actors so the hypothetical orbits aren’t going to be identical to what we currently have. It doesn’t take that much material orbiting in the opposite direction to render geosynchronous orbit untenable for example.
- paxys 3y ago
  There are 1.5 billion cars in the world, and they all drive on a single plane on a very small percentage of the surface. Now increase the circumference by a lot and add a whole new dimension. I think we'll be fine.
ramshanker 3y ago
Any space program which involves a new Rocket is essentially a Rocket program. - Someone at NASA.
- bsder 3y ago
  Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #39: > 39. Any exploration program which "just happens" to include a new launch vehicle is, de facto, a launch vehicle program. See: https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html
  - morkalork 3y ago
    I think I'm going to steal and adapt that quote for any new product underpinned by a new-to-us bit of tech.
eigenhombre 3y ago
Launch the Hypno Drones.
placesalt 3y ago
Has anyone heard much about the Telesat Lightspeed program? As far as I can tell, there is no regular consumer access planned for it. It seems like a missed opportunity on their part.
- MegaDeKay 3y ago
  LightSpeed is indeed all backhaul. Whether it is a missed opportunity depends on how you look at it. Go direct consumer and you are competing directly against Amazon and StarLink. I guess TeleSat believes the bigger opportunity is going where these companies are not. And I gotta say that "Lightspeed" is a hell of a misnomer given the rate that this program is plodding along. The longer it slides, the more that StarLink etc eat their lunch.
takeda 3y ago
It's crazy that this economically makes more sense than providing the Internet over a wire. Can we have a law passed that would mandate to lease the last mile to others (kind of like phone companies were required phone lines for DSL) so once again we can have competition? It is just dumb to require every ISP to run a dedicated line to your house.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  In the US the regulators have been captured or are neutered. Attempts to install effective regulators are stalled until they withdraw from the appointment process.
- elif 3y ago
  This is how it works in Holland with Open Access fiber lines https://hollandcityfiber.com/about-holland-city-fiber/ https://hollandcityfiber.com/about-holland-city-fiber/ The fiber itself is owned and maintained by the public and any number of private ISP's can offer service over it. Changing ISP provider is a software decision and as such the average cost is 42 euro/mo
  - sofixa 3y ago
    Similar story in France, ISPs have to give each other access at regulated costs, after an initial grace period (if an ISP builds a new line they have exclusivity on it for 1-2 years, to still incentivise investment). Internet is broadly affordable, and there are tons of villages and towns in the middle of nowhere with proud "commune fibrée" sign on their entrance. (Ironically sometimes such villages and towns are better connected than midsized cities due to the costs involved).
  - caladin 3y ago
    First time I see someone plainly refer to 'Holland' and it's not in The Netherlands but actually a city in Michigan. Checked on a map and it's actually near a place called Zeeland, which is also in The Netherlands. Wow "Noordeloos" also sounds Dutch. I guess they just have many Dutch-named towns over there.
- 3y ago
Dah00n 3y ago
News like this always reminds me of how the Western world polluted the earth and then got snippy when the rest of the world started doing the same on scale. China, India, North Korea - everyone have equal rights to do this too but I don't think it will happen without a lot of western news articles, hand wringing by experts, talking heads talking, etc. and likely some politics too. I wish we had laws that made sure a fix of future problems (ie. with debris, astronomy, etc.) had to be guaranteed before a launch was allowed. A bit of insight of how new technology often end up causing unintended problems later (or in the case of astronomy, sometimes right away).
- sofixa 3y ago
  > News like this always reminds me of how the Western world polluted the earth and then got snippy when the rest of the world started doing the same on scale That's a simplification to the point of no sense. The "West" (as someone who grew in "the East" with "the West" being the others, it's weird to me to talk about "the West" with regards to the EU, since my home country is an EU member) doesn't get "snippy" because someone else is doing what they used to do. It's because we have collectively, mostly, realised that those things that were done were terrible, and our morals of today condemn attempts at replicating it. If a Western company was dumping pollution in a river like they used to up until 1960s, you'd get outcry, of course. Germany gets rightfully criticised all the time about their stupid coal policy. Of course there are the people who still have a colonial outlook (those savages polluting my vacation spots!), but that's not the prevailing attitude. It's our planet, of all of us, and it's understandable that developing countries want to develop further; they should be assisted so that development is as sustainable as possible, for their own sake, but also for humanity and the planet as a whole.
  - Dah00n 3y ago
    >it's understandable that developing countries want to develop further; they should be assisted so that development is as sustainable as possible, for their own sake, but also for humanity and the planet as a whole. I wholeheartedly agree, but more often than not these countries do not have the technology available or it costs more than older tech. Either they should be allowed to pollute with the old tech and "we" must pollute less to make it up or "we" must pay for/give the technology for free to countries that doesn't have access to it. We could even build it (with no strings attached of course). Pointing fingers at -for example- China or India because of coal power plants while they are struggling to lift millions out of poverty is not helping anyone. In my opinion it is shut up or pay the bill. That includes North Korea, Iran, etc. and as long as we don't do this we have zero rights to criticise.
1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago
https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/10/amazon_project_kuipers_space_junk/ https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/10/amazon_project_kuiper... https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-...

43 points by LinuxBender 3y ago

...assuming the launch vehicles are good to go. > All told, Amazon has purchased 77 launches: 38 Vulcan launches, plus nine flights on ULA's soon-to-retire Atlas V, 18 Ariane 6 rockets, and 12 New Glenn missions, with a contract option for 15 more. All three of the new launch vehicles have seen repeated delays. Also note that Vulcan and New Glenn both use Blue Origin's BE-4 engine.

eco 3y ago
> Also note that Vulcan and New Glenn both use Blue Origin's BE-4 engine. One of those engines destined for Vulcan's maiden flight exploded during qualification testing recently. I think a lot will have to go right going forward for Amazon to reach the July 2026 deadline for half deployment.
allenrb 3y ago
I will bet a nice, cold beer that some of those satellites end up riding to orbit on top of Falcon 9 rockets. Too much has to go absolutely right for them otherwise. No doubt this will irritate Jeff to no end. I hear he’s not a big SpaceX fan.
- philwelch 3y ago
  I would be shocked if this happened unless Amazon’s hand was somehow forced by shareholders. Even if none of the rockets fly when Amazon expects them to, it’s more likely for Amazon to quietly drop the whole project than go to SpaceX. It’s going to take years of delays for Amazon to realize that their launch partners aren’t gonna work out, and by then the market opportunity will be over. Frankly, the whole satellite deal always smelled like self-dealing to me in the first place.

binkHN 3y ago

Does anyone know how many satellites before things get too crowded? 100,000? 1 million?

asynchronous 3y ago
Space is really, really big. And, orbits can happen at different distances from the Earth. As long as we don’t overcommit LEO satellites we can keep putting things in GEO orbit for probably a very long time.
Retric 3y ago
Depends on execution, we could have billions of satellites without huge problems. But Kessler syndrome could happen even just with the amount of satellites already in orbit if people had been actively malicious. So, the “limits” are mostly just a question of what assumptions you’re making.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Kessler syndrome could happen even just with the amount of satellite Kessler as in a catastrophic loss of satellites. In LEO, it wouldn’t be a denial of space programme, nor even a systemic issue—there aren’t high enough orbital energies.
  - Retric 3y ago
    Kessler syndrome is both loss of satellites but also rendering orbits unavailable. My comment was presupposing malicious actors so the hypothetical orbits aren’t going to be identical to what we currently have. It doesn’t take that much material orbiting in the opposite direction to render geosynchronous orbit untenable for example.
paxys 3y ago
There are 1.5 billion cars in the world, and they all drive on a single plane on a very small percentage of the surface. Now increase the circumference by a lot and add a whole new dimension. I think we'll be fine.

ramshanker 3y ago

Any space program which involves a new Rocket is essentially a Rocket program. - Someone at NASA.

bsder 3y ago
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #39: > 39. Any exploration program which "just happens" to include a new launch vehicle is, de facto, a launch vehicle program. See: https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html
- morkalork 3y ago
  I think I'm going to steal and adapt that quote for any new product underpinned by a new-to-us bit of tech.

eigenhombre 3y ago

Launch the Hypno Drones.

placesalt 3y ago

Has anyone heard much about the Telesat Lightspeed program? As far as I can tell, there is no regular consumer access planned for it. It seems like a missed opportunity on their part.

MegaDeKay 3y ago
LightSpeed is indeed all backhaul. Whether it is a missed opportunity depends on how you look at it. Go direct consumer and you are competing directly against Amazon and StarLink. I guess TeleSat believes the bigger opportunity is going where these companies are not. And I gotta say that "Lightspeed" is a hell of a misnomer given the rate that this program is plodding along. The longer it slides, the more that StarLink etc eat their lunch.

takeda 3y ago

It's crazy that this economically makes more sense than providing the Internet over a wire. Can we have a law passed that would mandate to lease the last mile to others (kind of like phone companies were required phone lines for DSL) so once again we can have competition? It is just dumb to require every ISP to run a dedicated line to your house.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
In the US the regulators have been captured or are neutered. Attempts to install effective regulators are stalled until they withdraw from the appointment process.
elif 3y ago
This is how it works in Holland with Open Access fiber lines https://hollandcityfiber.com/about-holland-city-fiber/ https://hollandcityfiber.com/about-holland-city-fiber/ The fiber itself is owned and maintained by the public and any number of private ISP's can offer service over it. Changing ISP provider is a software decision and as such the average cost is 42 euro/mo
- sofixa 3y ago
  Similar story in France, ISPs have to give each other access at regulated costs, after an initial grace period (if an ISP builds a new line they have exclusivity on it for 1-2 years, to still incentivise investment). Internet is broadly affordable, and there are tons of villages and towns in the middle of nowhere with proud "commune fibrée" sign on their entrance. (Ironically sometimes such villages and towns are better connected than midsized cities due to the costs involved).
- caladin 3y ago
  First time I see someone plainly refer to 'Holland' and it's not in The Netherlands but actually a city in Michigan. Checked on a map and it's actually near a place called Zeeland, which is also in The Netherlands. Wow "Noordeloos" also sounds Dutch. I guess they just have many Dutch-named towns over there.
3y ago

Dah00n 3y ago

News like this always reminds me of how the Western world polluted the earth and then got snippy when the rest of the world started doing the same on scale. China, India, North Korea - everyone have equal rights to do this too but I don't think it will happen without a lot of western news articles, hand wringing by experts, talking heads talking, etc. and likely some politics too. I wish we had laws that made sure a fix of future problems (ie. with debris, astronomy, etc.) had to be guaranteed before a launch was allowed. A bit of insight of how new technology often end up causing unintended problems later (or in the case of astronomy, sometimes right away).

sofixa 3y ago
> News like this always reminds me of how the Western world polluted the earth and then got snippy when the rest of the world started doing the same on scale That's a simplification to the point of no sense. The "West" (as someone who grew in "the East" with "the West" being the others, it's weird to me to talk about "the West" with regards to the EU, since my home country is an EU member) doesn't get "snippy" because someone else is doing what they used to do. It's because we have collectively, mostly, realised that those things that were done were terrible, and our morals of today condemn attempts at replicating it. If a Western company was dumping pollution in a river like they used to up until 1960s, you'd get outcry, of course. Germany gets rightfully criticised all the time about their stupid coal policy. Of course there are the people who still have a colonial outlook (those savages polluting my vacation spots!), but that's not the prevailing attitude. It's our planet, of all of us, and it's understandable that developing countries want to develop further; they should be assisted so that development is as sustainable as possible, for their own sake, but also for humanity and the planet as a whole.
- Dah00n 3y ago
  >it's understandable that developing countries want to develop further; they should be assisted so that development is as sustainable as possible, for their own sake, but also for humanity and the planet as a whole. I wholeheartedly agree, but more often than not these countries do not have the technology available or it costs more than older tech. Either they should be allowed to pollute with the old tech and "we" must pollute less to make it up or "we" must pay for/give the technology for free to countries that doesn't have access to it. We could even build it (with no strings attached of course). Pointing fingers at -for example- China or India because of coal power plants while they are struggling to lift millions out of poverty is not helping anyone. In my opinion it is shut up or pay the bill. That includes North Korea, Iran, etc. and as long as we don't do this we have zero rights to criticise.

1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago

https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/10/amazon_project_kuipers_space_junk/ https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/10/amazon_project_kuiper... https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-...