6 ms·

This seems like a deeply off-the-wall take. Why would the UKs living standards increase? Because the world continues to get richer. Is the UK going to regres

This seems like a deeply off-the-wall take. Why would the UKs living standards increase? Because the world continues to get richer. Is the UK going to regress to developing world status? That's a heck of a claim. Has any country that was among the richest in the world regressed to developing nation status? This is supposed to happen on the basis of being marginally disadvantaged in trade negotiations? Get real. This is sentiment because people are mad that the UK rejected their political beliefs. Could the UK suffer negative consequences versus the counterfactual as a result of Brexit? Sure. Is it going to regress to being the equivalent of, like, Peru? Obviously no.

Sai_ 3y ago
Argentina. India. It doesn’t take a lot for a country to go down the tubes.
- unmole 3y ago
  I'm sorry, on what timeline has India gone down the tubes?
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Devil's advocate, but India did see a significant collapse in quality of life during Covid and in it's immediate aftermath. This is party independent as this collapse was seen in all states. Based on HDI (both Niti Aayog and UNDP calculated), India regressed to the same developmental indicators as in 2015. Silver lining is that institutions still exist, and if managed correctly in the next decade, could ensure rapid economic development. That said, if this is mismanaged, we'd be in a similar boat to the Philippines - strong fundamentals and institutions but horrible execution leading to it lagging well behind it's peers. The next 10 years are crucial for India's development.
ClumsyPilot 3y ago
> Is the UK going to regress to developing world status? Lexically, tats an oxymoron, if you are regressing you are clearly not developing. Empirically, living standards have been falling in UK for a decade, while developing countries are developing. Clearly, eventually they will intersect. Logically, you seem to claim that a developed economy cannot collapse no matter how badly it's mismanaged?
- aetherson 3y ago
  I think that if the UK, for example, is overthrown by/elects a Maoist government or something equally crazy, then sure, they could flush their economy down the toilet. I don't think that "being out of the EU" is in the same category.
  - theironhammer 3y ago
    Hmm...Lizz Truss came pretty close.
  - ClumsyPilot 3y ago
    The problem is not 'being out of the EU' by itself, its the fact: 1 - for the past 7 years, the government was doing nothing except infighting around brexit. Things like economic policy have been neglected. Straighforward non-political ssues, like the fact that wind farms wait for 10 years to be connected to the grid, are unaddressed. 2 - the current leadership is braindead. They have spent the past few months discussing how they will get rid of all EU laws in one fell swoop, without replacing them or analysing impact. But they cannot answer basic questions - what happens in areas of economy that rely on EU law? Like logically, what happens when you repeal EU law about ebikes? Do ebikes become illegal? Do all ebikes, even with 10 horsepower become legal? I hate the EU ebike law but you cant just delete it.
    - nradov 3y ago
      Why can't they just delete certain laws? At some historical point in time that law didn't exist, and most people somehow managed so survive. In a Common Law system, as long as something isn't explicitly illegal then it's legal.
      - ClumsyPilot 3y ago
        > as long as something isn't explicitly illegal then it's legal. Good, good, so now that you have deleted 50 years of law from UK, what are those things you've just legalised? Certainly some types of Money laundering, probably a few types of financial fraud, carcinogens in food, and driving high-powered electric motorbikes without any kind of training or licence? > Most people somehow managed so survive Most people survived World War 2, and in Nagasaki most people survived getting nuked. In fact at least 50% of the population manages to survive almost anything. On the other hand, in Victorian Britain 1/3 of kids never reached age 5, so there is that. Also many didn't survive child labour in the coal mines.
twixfel 3y ago
Argentina was 100 years ago one of the richest countries on the planet. I'm not saying that such a decline will will happen to the UK, but it is myopic to suggest that it is impossible. It's only "impossible" if we actively stop it happening.
- aetherson 3y ago
  I looked into this and I don't actually see any sign that Argentina suffered any long-term decline in established GPD per capita. It had a few sharp breaks and recessions that undid 10 or 20 years of progress. But all of the stuff about 100 years of decline in Argentina economy is based on counterfactuals about how they "should have" grown, not about absolute losses.
  - twixfel 3y ago
    Well yeah most people are obviously referring to relative decline, I'm surprised you even needed that explaining to you, unless you thought that Argentina really might actually be poorer today in real terms than it was in the year 1900. > counterfactuals about how they "should have" grown No, they were growing a lot and extremely wealthy, then they chose to go down a low growth path. Growth is not some magical thing, as if they just stopped growing for no reason as you appear to be suggesting. The point is their growth trajectory changed for very particular reasons, which were mostly things in their control. I mean if in 100 years time the USA was the poorest country in the world but still richer than it is today in real terms, would you really go "yep, yep, nothing to see here, stop dealing in counterfactuals"? Obviously not.
    - aetherson 3y ago
      This whole thread exists because a person said that they thought that the UK was going to have a lower standard of living in the future than the past. I assume you will now go direct your indignation towards them.
- asdadsdad 3y ago
  i don't think Argentina ever had the infrastructural or foundational sophistication of the UK. Britain is fairly nimble, it's a naturally a native English speaker country, and has many of the same values that attract businesses to the US. Argentina is a non-starter.
Georgelemental 3y ago
TFR 1.53 and falling fast: https://www.statista.com/statistics/284042/fertility-rate-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/284042/fertility-rate-in... I don't see how you propose to maintain the same level of prosperity when fewer productive workers need to support more unproductive seniors.
- aetherson 3y ago
  Allow immigration? Seems like there are tens of millions of people in the world who would be overjoyed to have a chance to move to the UK.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Probably, but allowing it doesn't change the surprisingly difficult time that even the middle class families in the UK are having economically (which will probably put off a lot of migrants and asylum seekers if they believed it). Immigration may or may not help the current shortage of labour in the UK in various aspects of the economy that's likely to get worse as the population ages (more pensioners) with insufficient replacements (making the things and doing the services the pensioners might buy), given that's already a weird combination — not sure how the UK is managing to get both of these wrong at the same time, but, somehow, it is. UK definitely needs more homes though, whatever else. Too much as a faction of income going to landlords like me…
xk_id 3y ago
> Get real. This is sentiment because people are mad that the UK rejected their political beliefs. One of the most important assets of british people used to be their national brand; it was never an accurate image of who they were as people, but the public relations carefully orchestrated by their government was effective on the international stage. Perhaps the big favour Farage did to the world was to encourage british people to speak up and show everyone what was really behind the so called exceptionalism and the superficial veneer of manners. However, it was also the irreversible deterioration of their image; and I’m not sure british people should celebrate the fact that they shocked and offended the international audience with their beliefs and values.

Sai_ 3y ago

Argentina. India. It doesn’t take a lot for a country to go down the tubes.

unmole 3y ago
I'm sorry, on what timeline has India gone down the tubes?
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Devil's advocate, but India did see a significant collapse in quality of life during Covid and in it's immediate aftermath. This is party independent as this collapse was seen in all states. Based on HDI (both Niti Aayog and UNDP calculated), India regressed to the same developmental indicators as in 2015. Silver lining is that institutions still exist, and if managed correctly in the next decade, could ensure rapid economic development. That said, if this is mismanaged, we'd be in a similar boat to the Philippines - strong fundamentals and institutions but horrible execution leading to it lagging well behind it's peers. The next 10 years are crucial for India's development.

ClumsyPilot 3y ago

> Is the UK going to regress to developing world status? Lexically, tats an oxymoron, if you are regressing you are clearly not developing. Empirically, living standards have been falling in UK for a decade, while developing countries are developing. Clearly, eventually they will intersect. Logically, you seem to claim that a developed economy cannot collapse no matter how badly it's mismanaged?

aetherson 3y ago
I think that if the UK, for example, is overthrown by/elects a Maoist government or something equally crazy, then sure, they could flush their economy down the toilet. I don't think that "being out of the EU" is in the same category.
- theironhammer 3y ago
  Hmm...Lizz Truss came pretty close.
- ClumsyPilot 3y ago
  The problem is not 'being out of the EU' by itself, its the fact: 1 - for the past 7 years, the government was doing nothing except infighting around brexit. Things like economic policy have been neglected. Straighforward non-political ssues, like the fact that wind farms wait for 10 years to be connected to the grid, are unaddressed. 2 - the current leadership is braindead. They have spent the past few months discussing how they will get rid of all EU laws in one fell swoop, without replacing them or analysing impact. But they cannot answer basic questions - what happens in areas of economy that rely on EU law? Like logically, what happens when you repeal EU law about ebikes? Do ebikes become illegal? Do all ebikes, even with 10 horsepower become legal? I hate the EU ebike law but you cant just delete it.
  - nradov 3y ago
    Why can't they just delete certain laws? At some historical point in time that law didn't exist, and most people somehow managed so survive. In a Common Law system, as long as something isn't explicitly illegal then it's legal.
    - ClumsyPilot 3y ago
      > as long as something isn't explicitly illegal then it's legal. Good, good, so now that you have deleted 50 years of law from UK, what are those things you've just legalised? Certainly some types of Money laundering, probably a few types of financial fraud, carcinogens in food, and driving high-powered electric motorbikes without any kind of training or licence? > Most people somehow managed so survive Most people survived World War 2, and in Nagasaki most people survived getting nuked. In fact at least 50% of the population manages to survive almost anything. On the other hand, in Victorian Britain 1/3 of kids never reached age 5, so there is that. Also many didn't survive child labour in the coal mines.

twixfel 3y ago

Argentina was 100 years ago one of the richest countries on the planet. I'm not saying that such a decline will will happen to the UK, but it is myopic to suggest that it is impossible. It's only "impossible" if we actively stop it happening.

aetherson 3y ago
I looked into this and I don't actually see any sign that Argentina suffered any long-term decline in established GPD per capita. It had a few sharp breaks and recessions that undid 10 or 20 years of progress. But all of the stuff about 100 years of decline in Argentina economy is based on counterfactuals about how they "should have" grown, not about absolute losses.
- twixfel 3y ago
  Well yeah most people are obviously referring to relative decline, I'm surprised you even needed that explaining to you, unless you thought that Argentina really might actually be poorer today in real terms than it was in the year 1900. > counterfactuals about how they "should have" grown No, they were growing a lot and extremely wealthy, then they chose to go down a low growth path. Growth is not some magical thing, as if they just stopped growing for no reason as you appear to be suggesting. The point is their growth trajectory changed for very particular reasons, which were mostly things in their control. I mean if in 100 years time the USA was the poorest country in the world but still richer than it is today in real terms, would you really go "yep, yep, nothing to see here, stop dealing in counterfactuals"? Obviously not.
  - aetherson 3y ago
    This whole thread exists because a person said that they thought that the UK was going to have a lower standard of living in the future than the past. I assume you will now go direct your indignation towards them.
asdadsdad 3y ago
i don't think Argentina ever had the infrastructural or foundational sophistication of the UK. Britain is fairly nimble, it's a naturally a native English speaker country, and has many of the same values that attract businesses to the US. Argentina is a non-starter.

Georgelemental 3y ago

TFR 1.53 and falling fast: https://www.statista.com/statistics/284042/fertility-rate-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/284042/fertility-rate-in... I don't see how you propose to maintain the same level of prosperity when fewer productive workers need to support more unproductive seniors.

aetherson 3y ago
Allow immigration? Seems like there are tens of millions of people in the world who would be overjoyed to have a chance to move to the UK.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Probably, but allowing it doesn't change the surprisingly difficult time that even the middle class families in the UK are having economically (which will probably put off a lot of migrants and asylum seekers if they believed it). Immigration may or may not help the current shortage of labour in the UK in various aspects of the economy that's likely to get worse as the population ages (more pensioners) with insufficient replacements (making the things and doing the services the pensioners might buy), given that's already a weird combination — not sure how the UK is managing to get both of these wrong at the same time, but, somehow, it is. UK definitely needs more homes though, whatever else. Too much as a faction of income going to landlords like me…

xk_id 3y ago

> Get real. This is sentiment because people are mad that the UK rejected their political beliefs. One of the most important assets of british people used to be their national brand; it was never an accurate image of who they were as people, but the public relations carefully orchestrated by their government was effective on the international stage. Perhaps the big favour Farage did to the world was to encourage british people to speak up and show everyone what was really behind the so called exceptionalism and the superficial veneer of manners. However, it was also the irreversible deterioration of their image; and I’m not sure british people should celebrate the fact that they shocked and offended the international audience with their beliefs and values.